Member Info for rupans

FT had the change in broker forecast in their data.

The reason for the drop is Peel Hunt reduced the target price from 145p to 130p.

Not sure why ...

Yes he did

Ppywgda,

not much more info apart from he is MD at Euro Emirates Group. Unless you want to decifer his linkedIn in arabic!!!

Ppywda,

Eldose is a Dubai investor he has investments in other areas. He is not Roger. Roger owns just under 30%, Eldose now owns 8%. Good to see Eldose is soaking up free float ....

You are right about the insurance biz the 3 year fixed issue of it being underpriced should be flushed out in a year. However we will see how profitable it is next year as this year they are trying to pick up market share.

This SP should go up steadily now if Eldose is back in the buying mood and explains the recent increase in price ....

Zccax7,

I agree ... not sure why we are medium priced regarding the per diem. A ship like this can easily be upgraded to luxury and with the price tag to match ...

still waiting for this deal .... come on ....

Interesting that there seems to be a mistake in the article as it says the market cap of superdry is less than 40m. When I google it it says 36m. I am pretty sure it is at around the 4m mark though ...

No deal over the weekend but interesting rise today - but we have been here before

Mee too. If there is a deal done and this goes over £3.00 I think we should do the meet up??

I think you are right there must be a deal or maybe Eldose is buying again from the share price movements.

Topped up today

So agreed looks like they have repaid the bond using rogers loan, which is not ideal. Was hoping for sale and leaseback deal but heyho

Rogue, so i think the recent appreciation in build cost has cancelled out some or all of the depreciation. so a sale of i estimate £600 to £700 million for both ships would wipe out the debt. Even if they leased out the ships at £60 million per year then with an EBITDA of £90 million for both ships would leave a profit of £30 million .... just for ocean cruise ...

Cheers Z puts the company value into perspective!!!!

Alnwick,

thanks for that so the question what is the current build cost for a 1000 passenger cruise ship of similar quality ...

Rogue,

so that would be a sensible thing offsetting any one off profit from the sale of the cruise ships with a goodwill rightdown as there would be less tax to pay. The main point is sale and leaseback generates cash while goodwill is a non-cash item so the debt would go down on a sale ...

Hi Rogue,

I am not an accountant so I maybe wrong but the reason I say this is because:

Currently the cruise operation has no goodwill on the books.

So if they sell the cruise ships for more than the current debt associated with it it would create a profit. As this profit is a one off and not due to normal operations it would be an exceptional profit.

The lease or rental on the ships would be part of normal operations, and therefore affect the underlying profits. This would therefore reduce the EBITDA and underlying profit with respect to the cruise ship business. However note that the proceeds of the sale would be used to pay of the ship debt, so the normal debt payments which have been affecting the underlying profit in the cruise business would dissappear. So I think the basic equations, keeping all other factors constant, are:

exceptional profit = sale of cruise ships - ship debt - transaction costs of deal

new EBITDA = previous EBITDA - lease/rental costs

new underlying profit = previous underlying profit - lease/rental costs + ship debt repayments

overall this would be very good as we would no longer have an issue regarding £250 billion bond payment and perhaps also lease more cruise ships

So disagree again with TO as Roger will block it.

But sale and leaseback would change the dynamics of this company. It would take the risk of paying the 2026 £250 billion bond of the table and of course make an exceptional profit for the year instantly.

Would also settle for selling AICL as well which would now be much more than the £90 million offered earlier.

However Saga is not had a history of making deals so far, but that was useless Euan, maybe Mike can do it

This is a good point currently cruise and travel has no goodwill on the books. So we need some kind of deal/partnership here to propel the SP much higher

Cheers Alnwick,

so they reduce it from 220p to 175, which is probably why there was an initial sell on results day.

Really Saga needs to do a deal to shed debt. I am hoping for an AICL sell or a sale and leasback on the cruise ships

Alnwick,

Thank you for the broker update. By the way do you know which broker this was and what their previous target price was please?