Member Info for rupans

Hi Rogue,

Thanks very much. Looks like there is still plent of stock available for Eldose to pick up. I think he will be looking for 10%. Not sure why just like you but plenty of value to be had in Saga and maybe he wants a chunk of it etc?

Rogue,

You maybe right. But the indication strongly shows that Eldose is consistently buying shares in Saga. By my calculation around 140,000 per day. And it has been accelerating. Now that everyone knows, other are going to buy also. In addition as you have rightly pointed out the free float will be getting smaller. So yes he will try to control his buying on the way up but also, the pool that he can buy from is getting consistently smaller. And also others will know this and start buying in too.

Maybe I am being overoptimistic on this but maybe our time has finally come and this share price will go to a more reasonable value ... as it is far too cheap at the moment

The fall in prices of used cars and maintenance in the latest inflation figures (note an absolute fall not a fall in the rate of inflation) is extremely good for car insuance side of the business. As well as bolstering the value of AICL...

see below:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/november2023

Second-hand car prices fell by 2.1% between October and November 2023, compared with a fall of 0.2% between the same two months a year ago. On an annual basis, prices fell by 5.4% in the year to November, compared with a fall of 3.6% in the year to October.

The small downward effect from maintenance and repairs resulted from prices falling by 0.8% on the month this year compared with a rise of 1.1% in 2022. The effect came from prices of roadside recovery services falling this year but rising a year ago.

Big sales push and big discounts available now. Southampton store was busy but certainly the activity has died off from a few weeks ago.

zara's results show things have pucked up in Novemebr and december:

https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/zara-owner-inditexs-nine-month-profit-soars-325-sales-growth-slows-down-2023-12-13/

I am more positive I think it will be another up day

Yes it will be interesting. Last few weeks are good but not sure it makes up for poor summer and autumn.

but all eyes will be on wholesale

Just for all the otherguys reading the previous comment.

Numis has not changed their recommendation or their price target. Buy with a 1yr target price of 200p

they have simply updated their note, which is good. Anyway which ever way you look at it the share price is cheap and it looks like sellers are diminishing as Roguemale commented earlier

Alnwick,

regarding the NUMIS note. Did they upgrade the target price or just the recommendation?

the important part of the note is:

"We see an improving outlook for EBITDA, primarily driven by announced cost saving initiatives, fading insurance headwinds, and growth in travel"

they also see the insurance market turning for the better if it has not already done so.

Somebody just mopped up a sh*t load of shares ... wonder who ;-)

This weekend the southampton store was not as busy as previous weekends but still people at tills.

So I think they are certainly still doing well.

Which superdry was this by the way?

Also I have noticed that the 20% off jackets offer has now ended. We now have 20% off hoodies.

Looking at the John Lewis website they have sold out in certain sizes and colours for certain superdry jackets.

So anecdotally sales are going well and hopefully we dont have a huge surplus of stock at the end of the period.

Demand for cruises highest ever:

https://www.reuters.com/business/travelers-ready-set-sail-cruises-record-levels-next-year-2023-12-04

Looks like more claims infaltion to come according to this report...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-car-insurance-cost-uk-keep-rising-claims-07sknqphr

Hi,

I can confirm that the Southampton store was busy yesterday and today. Plenty of people at tills and plenty of people trying on stuff over a wide age group. However most stores were busy and definitely not as busy as last week. Last week it was rammed. I checked google trends over past few years and Novemeber December is the peak period for searches for Superdry. Jackets are one of their key products and look like they are selling well and stock is coninually replenished. Hopefully sales this year are comparable to last year

It is not so busy during weekdays

Hi Hope1815,

Please feel free to post here if it is informative info. I personally do not care about the volume as long as it is informative, ratonal opinions welcome too. I left advfn as it became a cesspit of bickering and nonsense. However this board has quite a bit of it too. Anyway look forward to any info

Mixed picture from this report:

https://www.retail-week.com/stores/black-friday-sales-decline-despite-buzz-on-uk-high-streets-and-marketplaces/7045089.article

It is good to see others are also seeing that Superdry stores are busy. I know that the Southampton store has been busy over the weekend. (I would not expect it to be busy on a Wednesday morning though)

Thanks for the analysis on the trustpilot reviews ... more anecdotal evidence.

I do however think they will struggle to beat last years xmas sales as it was a record breaking xmas sales.

The share price and company is very dependant on sales over this period, they need to sell their stock. The IP sales are good but are insignificant if they can not make their sales targets. This is why I track my local store sales over the weekend. If they have a lot of stock in their outlet channels at the end of the period this would be a bad sign.

This is all anecdotal evidence but I think retail in general has picked up its pace in last few weeks and it is looking good. I have no idea about wholesale which again needs to do well

Anyway used car prices are falling like a brick which is good for our underwriting business and motor insurance margins in general:

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/business-car-sales/dealers-under-pressure-used-car-values-freefall

Yep definitely good riddance. Far too many mistakes and far too reactionery rather than intuitive leadership:

1. When the house brokers, Peel Hunt and PIs (including myself) wanted him to sell the underwriting business for circa £400M, he tried to sell Titan travel during a travel downturn.

2. tried to sell the underwriting business ealier in the year when it was the cheapest.

3. his digital crap.

4. blocked the 33p ( or £4.95) bid for Saga. You can argue that this may not have happened after due dilegence but equally it could have gone ahead. I also note that the peak (for literally a few weeks) price for Saga after this offer was around £4.30.

5. In fact not sure he did much at all apart from get deHann on board.