Member Info for RS2002

Selling at 38p when this recently went to 68p, I’m sorry to read you missed out on a 79% profit return, Investroid.

I can now understand why you’re attempting to talk this down again.

This has found support at 50p because it has tested 68p twice in a few weeks and institutions are buying in demonstrating the strength of this new bottom.

If we look overseas we can see

1. China has recovered its box office to pre-covid levels

2. Rival Cineworld is now sitting at 80% it’s pre-covid share prices.

This provides comfort they a recovery is due and will come to patient cineworld share holders.

Source: https://variety.com/2020/film/news/china-first-box-office-recovery-1234751777/

That is an awful lot of could, posted.

I’d rather go by what has been posted, from the CEO himself citing many sold out showings WITHOUT the pull of blockbusters.

Uncertainty is being eroded away and investors are taking positions aware that Cineworld will announce 24 September H1 what their liquidity position is and how they will weather the storm for the balance of the year into 2021, where we know progress is being made by Oxford/AstraZeneca and Pfizer, so much so Phase 3 data is due “mid Sep” and some citing a vaccine for health care workers and the elderly before close of year.

Source: https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/927809/cineworld-higher-as-ceo-highlights-sold-out-movie-screenings-following-reopening-927809.html

Investors getting in ahead of 24th September when we can expect a POSITIVE update from Cineworld.

I think we will see 68p again, very soon

I’ll hazard a guess and say 68p will be met in the lead up to this as savvy investors take positions. Those with shorts, well, buckle in and have some tissues ready.

The current SP has all the risks priced in and is in fact sitting at below what it should, given rival cinema operator, AMC Entertainment has recovered 90% of its pre-covid price.

The maturity of Cineworld’s loans is 2023. More than sufficient time for global economies to recover never mind Cineworld.

Cineworld:

1. Don’t need more loans or a cash injection as they have sufficient liquidity to keep them afloat until December 2021 in the event ALL of their cinemas remained closed indefinitely until then. Given they have reopen ALL European cinemas and US cinemas are progressing their reopen well with NY and more of California to follow in the coming week(s).

2. Don’t need to do a rights issue to dilute shareholders shares.

3. Have negotiated lease cuts and in some instances like Poland when they were shut DIDN’T pay a penny in rent. More to be revealed September 24.

4. Have European cinemas that play domestic movies not linked to Hollywood/American; this means they have UNLIMITED membership paid and domestic box office sales that don’t care one iota about Hollywood titles.

5. Have variable costs to the tune of 70% and a flexible manpower model, read: zero contract hours with temporary staff. Not popular, I know, but from a spend perspective is great for shareholders.

The angle they are going bust doesn’t fly.

Fitch the rating agency even testified to that stating, the issue of a USD250 million secured debt facility and a USD110 million increase in its revolving credit facility (RCF) have ALLEVIATED short-term cash risks

Pre Covid, free cash flow was well over $1bn a year, interest on bank loans was under $200M. Net debt was being reduced and around $500M a year was being paid out in dividends.
Even with reduced capacity CINE will easily be able to cover the interest payments just from 100% openings in UK and ROW and a fraction of the US market. Fair enough there is not enough going around for a dividend but no one is buying in for that. There is no issue of CINE defaulting on debt short term unless they remain closed until well into 2021 which is not going to happen, as they have open. Now we find out how well they negotiated leases.

Keep in mind AMC reported deferring payments to landlords and renegotiating which the market loved. Given Cineworld operate 75% of their estate in the US, the same territory - Expect the same.

Could we see some news, tomorrow?

The first results showing whether a vaccine can stop people from getting the virus could come by mid-Sept from AstraZeneca i.e. tomorrow

Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech may also have initial data before a key FDA meeting on virus vaccines scheduled for Oct 22. This should be issued, a good 4 weeks ahead to allow enough to digest it. So as early as next week from them.

Source: https://www.livemint.com/news/world/when-will-we-have-covid-vaccine-early-data-expected-by-september-15-11599113416496.html

The question to be asked is simple.

Do you take the advice of those attempting to walk the share down or analysts (Peel Hunt target 180p) and earlier prices pre covid levels, to give you an idea where you see this investment growing to long term.

Short term liquidity concerns have been mitigated and formal RNS testify to this that Cineworld have enough liquidity to support closures to December 2021 (18 months, when posted 3 months ago). This means no rights issue or share dilution.

Agree on the patience stance. Any investor worth their salt knows, do your research, look at the fundamentals and the market as a whole.

This BB has gone downhill because shorters have hijacked so many spamming with thread after thread with nonesense.

The share price has remained with support at 50p now as the bottom and from here on it just takes some positive news to see it rally.

Agree with the sentiment that betting against Cineworld (second largest cinema operator in the world) is indeed betting against Hollywood.

Of course attendane won't be near 2019 levels because we are still recovering from a pandemic but each day we continue to see a reduced mortality rate, is more confidence that the world is making a recovery.

All industries are facing difficulties and social activities like cinema stand a very good change to recover.

Do you want to take the advice from someone without an investment who is trying to talk the share down or look at broker rating, most noably the Peel Hunt one at 180p which states, Cineworld can bounce back very quickly. Take a position and sit back and expect all industries to recover, which include cineworld.

Tenet has surpassed $200m in box office.

Mulan has flopped in the box office.

What was Mulan in comparison?

Well you can appreciate why Disney said this would be a ONE OFF, going PVOD.

“
Mulan is outright bombing in China, having earned $8.27 million on Saturday, just 5% from its mediocre $7.9 million Friday gross. Credit the Chinese media blackout, online piracy from last week’s PVOD debut via Disney Plus”

Ouch!

It is well known, Disney make the most of their income alongside park admissions revenue (something that you cannot stream btw) from Box office. In fact, Disney made up 33% of US domestic box office takings. Considering the competition that is a huge amount.

Source: https://variety.com/2020/film/box-office/disney-global-box-office-2019-1203453364/

Good data and news on Mulan that reaffirms Cinema isn’t going anywhere, particularly for a big hitter like Disney. One can now understand why it’s so important for Disney to perhaps own a cinema group. Can we expect more synergy from Disney and Cineworld like they did in 2019, with Star Wars?

Source: https://www.dcm.co.uk/news/disney-partners-with-cineworld-to-take-cinemagoers-to-star-wars-galaxys-edg

Nice post.

Should encourage others sitting on the side line to step into recovery stocks; Cineworld being the front runner.

If you’re a clued you investor, you will understand that Covid is not an exclusively cinema impacted virus.

It has impacted all industries; business, leisure, hospitality, retail.

The idea that at 27% of its projected Peel Hunt share price of 180p, Cineworld hasn’t already priced in reduced footfall is not only misleading but absurd.

Once the global governments get a handle on this pandemic, we continue to see case numbers in our target geography being the US, fall as they have been and advancements in vaccine programmes (read: AstraZeneca resuming trials), we will see a nice steady recovery.

Many are kicking themselves for not having bought in at 32p, they were convinced this would return to 20p, it didn’t. Now once again, they are convincing themselves this will drop to 32p again. It won’t, each time support levels raise, on the back of progress. That is the key word: PROGRESS. Many will come to regret not taking a position in the low 50s as we move to the 60s and above now.

Their loss, I guess.

Cineworld Adjusted Profit After Tax (APAT)

2018: $345m
2019: $385m (UP 11.5%)

Full results are for all investors to look at to digest everything, including net debt decreasing.

2018: https://www.cineworldplc.com/sites/cineworld-plc/files/20190314_2018%20FY%20PresentationvF_no%20movie.pdf

2019: https://www.cineworldplc.com/sites/cineworld-plc/files/20190314_2018%20FY%20PresentationvF_no%20movie.pdf

This supports my earlier post with content driving demand and not necessarily looking at admissions but the fact that 2018 performed better than 2017 and 2020 was predicted to be better than 2019, pre-covid.

MASSIVE NEWS!

Thanks for posting!

There is a poster citing that cinema audiences figures have been on the decline.

Just to set the record straight.

1. 2018 saw HIGHER cinema attendance than 2017
2. 2019 did see LOWER cinema attendance than 2018

The point I illustrate is that each year differs and the margin is approximately 4-6%. That is perfectly normal fluctuations to experience, given attendance will ultimately be driven by CONTENT.

Be assured, betting against cinema is betting against Hollywood which is a multi billion dollar industry.

DVD, BluRay, Cable, Streaming. These are technologies that are over a DECADE OLD.

They have NOT killed off cinema because it banks on the theatrical experience that is irreplaceable and also a social led activity akin to going bowling when you could buy a set of skittles for your home garden. The patron will want to experience the event and activity significantly differently from a living room tv and be sensitive to neighbours.

2017 Attendance: 1,225,639,761
2018 Attendance: 1,311,323,188 (7% INCREASE)
2019 Attendance: 1,240,311,540 (6% DECREASE)

Don’t let others deceive you and rob you off your shares. This has tested 68p twice in weeks and is due a good recovery.

Patience and ignore the noise.

Source: https://www.the-numbers.com/market/

The number of shares available are now reducing for shorts to close. I can see a lot of shorters getting burnt when we hear next week about NY and leading to the H1 results, like AMC who saw a significant price correction to 90% pre covid price.

What I like is Peel Hunt previously downgraded Cineworld to a HOLD and 140p. They didn’t curry any favour to Cineworld.

Morgan Stanley have an axe to grind. Why?

They were former financial advisors working with Cineworld and Regal when they merged.

Source: https://www.paulhastings.com/news/details/?id=9cb0ed69-2334-6428-811c-ff00004cbded

Cineworld DID NOT use them when they looked at a Cineplex, instead working with HSBC and Goldman Sachs.

Source: https://iclg.com/ibr/articles/10605-hsbc-advises-cineworld-on-purchase-of-canada-s-cineplex-for-2-8bn

What I also find interesting is despite the 45p price target they have acquired between 49p and 55p now.