Member Info for RS2002

Conveant tests in December 2020 should pass.

2019 = $1033m EBITDA
2020 = $388m EBITDA required

If I model on 2019 and use the $1033m EBITDA figure / 12 = $86.083m per month x 2.5 months = $215.20m (appreciating Jan, Feb and half of March was not affected)

Balance required = $388m ($3500 / 9.0) - $215m = $173m EBITDA required.
Remaining months to December = 4 months so $173m / 4 = $43m per month.

Easily achieveable given the DEMAND that Box Office sales are demonstrating.

Peel and Hunt gave an estimate of $318m, at a worst if it was $318m and a delta of $70m presented, no lender would default a $3500m loan over a 2% varience. ($70m/$3500m).

Try harder, Indepth.

This is a STRONG BUY.

80% price recovery would be 150p+
From the current share price of 60p (we'll surpass this, tomorrow) that is a 150% rise we are due soon.

I don't need to dream. Why?

Because Peel Hunt, the broker rating you have decided to quote from rate Cineworld as a BUY and re-rate it to 180p.

They say that it is due a big rise on the back of a thriving box office which China has seen and is now fast approaching to Western territories.

Peel said that by the time the interims are due on 24 September, both trading and updated information from management should be positive for the share price.

We can now join AMC with a nice recovery to 80% pre-covid price.

07 September = 224 out of a population of 330m is negligble.

To put that into perspective, you would have to go back to 24 March to retrieve a lower figure (162).

That is a huge milestone.

Given the positive data we have seen from the Southern Hemisphere which has avoided any second wave and a extremely mild seasonal flu, it bodes well for the Norther Hemisphere where Cineworld operates.

Source: https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ALeKk00PJaRkoBh6aE0WuigmWr24hOvmcg%3A1599572771027&source=hp&ei=IotXX-KwO4KdlwSKrKPYCg&q=covid+cases+deaths+us&oq=covid+cases+deaths+us

He seems very emotional and forgetful that he soldat 58p over 62p he claims.

I wouldn't be surprised if he is Jawad Islam (JWD222), our fake German poster.

Not someone you would want to trust.

Loan maturity not until 2023/2025 and sufficient liqudidity to sail through 18 months of locksdowns. Having debt and no control over it is a problem. That isn't something Cineworld face. They have a strong control over debt and have sufficent financed to maintain reserves to see them through. Not that it will be required, given they can operate at PROFIT with as little as 20-25% occupancy and all their territories have re-open with NY and CA to follow soon.

I'll predict an announcement this Thursday.

We saw New Jersey announce terms to support their re-opening in time for last Friday, expect the same for NY.

This will be huge news leading to the weekend for Tenet to acquire more box office takings.

He's under incredible pressure.

More than a dozen lawmakers this week signed onto a letter backing the reopening of movie theaters as the rate of new infections from the coronavirus pandemic has remain below 1% in New York for nearly a month.

Source: https://www.ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ny-state-of-politics/2020/09/04/more-than-a-dozen-lawmakers-want-movie-theaters-to-open

Agree and New York Governor, Cuomo is under pressure to re-open cinemas/movie theaters.
Malls, bowling alleys and a number of leisure activities are open and apparently lawyers are now lobbying with NATO to get cinemas re-open ASAP.

This will be a huge piece of news for Cineworld as NY along with CA represent 25% of Cineworld's US estate.

1. Phase 3 vaccine data due 15 September that is SEVEN DAYS!
2. The media will review the UK data more and realise that Covid cases increases is mostly from the young who are asymptomatic - no symptoms!

Source: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/life-style/health-fitness/health-news/coronavirus-vaccine-update-early-data-on-covid-vaccine-expected-by-september-15-heres-how-soon-we-can-realistically-expect-a-covid-vaccine/photostory/77930945.cms

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/07/coronavirus-young-people-urged-to-follow-rules-as-uk-cases-
rise

Agree @ laidback.

The 180p BUY raiting was introduced from a previous HOLD and 140p from, Peel Hunt so they certainly didn't curry favour to Cineworld.

Their forecast for a $318m EBITDA may be slightly behind $388m required at 9.0x covenant test but no lender would consider a default on a loan that hasn't got a maturity until 2023, by which time Covid will be well behind us.

(388-318)/3500 = 0.02 (2%) varience on a $3.5bn net debt.

Ignore the noise and take comfort that we can expect a suitable recovery, tomorrow when the data is appropriately analysed and presented by the experts.

Whilst we already know that Covid is NOT season, we should take comfort that the Southern Hemisphere went through Winter from March and they reported very positive data. Whilst there was some mile increases in covid cases, fundamentaly, hospitalisation and mortality DID NOT increase.

In fact, their seasonal flu reason DIDN'T even come, it was so low it shocked the medical world.

Epidemiologist Cheryl Cohen and colleagues at South Africa’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) set up a plan to learn from the double whammy. They hoped to study interactions between seasonal respiratory viruses and SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19. Does infection with one change a person’s risk of catching the other? How do people fare when they have both?

"..the flu season never came. NICD’s Centre for Respiratory Disease and Meningitis, which Cohen leads, has logged only a single flu case since the end of March. In previous years, the country’s surveillance platforms have documented, on average, about 700 cases during that period, Cohen says. “We’ve been doing flu surveillance since 1984, and it’s unprecedented.”

What does this mean?

1. Covid is NOT seasonal
2. Across the southern hemisphere, mortality did NOT increase

Source: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/how-will-covid-19-affect-coming-flu-season-scientists-struggle-clues#

Thanks to LB28, I'll publish a new southern hemisphere thread which will defeat any concerns about an insurgence for the northern hermisphere.

1. Covid is NOT seasonal.
2. The southern hemisphere ALREADY saw winter and they did not see a rise in mortality or hospitality.

Do your research properly.

When this was 32p, the shorters were still telling you to sell. What happen? It doubled in price at 64p+

Taking advice from shorters like indepth is a sure way to lose money.

The data is there for all to see.

The rate of positive Covid cases is growing fastest among teenagers and people in their 20s. (8.7% to 26.5%). No hospitlisation or deaths reported. What does this mean?

1. More testing is being undertake and reporting more positve cases in those who are asymptomatic with no symptoms.
2. The most at risk group being 80+ saw a 45% reduction in cases, so a big improvement.

UK cinema audence demographics? 82% are UNDER 45.

The US where 73% of CIneworld cinemas reside are doing well and not reporting any second wave.

Absolutely spot-on.

The media are whipping up a frenzy but the reality is there is no crisis.

The increase in cases in the UK is down to testing more young 15-29 who are asymptomatic, presenting NO symptoms, never mind needing hostpitalisation which is low.

Mortality is low at just 2-3 deaths yesterday. That is a lower mortality than seasonal flu and pneumonia.

The US is doing very well where as you rightfully point out, 73% of Cineworld cinemas reside and the box office figures are very encouraging.

The cases in the UK may be rising but the data suggests this is 15-29 year olds who have risen BUT amongst the most at risk groups, they have REDUCED.

Keep in mind that UK aside, US is where Cineworld have 73% of their estate and the box office is doing the talking.

Ignore the noise and sit back knowing this is going to recovery once the Phase 3 vaccine trial data comes in next week.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/07/coronavirus-young-people-urged-to-follow-rules-as-uk-cases-rise

The article is definietly positive. It has demonstrated a demand for big movies, so much so we have Wonder Woman 84 and Bond openly advertising their release date in the next few months.

As Laidback quoted, given only a partial re-open and key states, CA and NY remaining closed, the figure is very impressive.

Tent will be a marathon, not a sprint.

40p is a pipedream.

Broker rating is 180p, even the critics Morgan Stanely with their 60p target state

"With no big refinancing obligations looming, Cinewolrd has LIQUIDITY available to SURVIVE 18 MONTHS of LOCKDOWNS"

At the moment, like AMC, we are seeing the share price recover in line with box office demand. Tenet is proving this point having taken $150m so far internationally.