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What I still find staggering is that it is COMMON KNOWLEDGE, Cineworld operates 75% of its estate in the US.

The U.K. is not going into a lockdown.

The U.S has got a good handle on infections and hospitalisation and mortality remains historically low.

I find myself repeating this several times and it’s exhausting but I am hoping it sinks in at some point.

Onwards and upwards for the patient Cineworld investor. Roll on 24th for our next RNS.

Jawad, you’re too desperate.

This has shown residence to drop below 50p following the rule of 6 news. That has now been digested and the market has moved on because it was expecting far worse news. That didn’t materialise.

The U.K. government has made their position clear. They cannot afford to entertain a lockdown now schools have resumed and GDP is still well below the levels they expect. July looked better as we are seeing some recovery, 6.6% growth. It’s the THIRD month in a row where we are seeing recovery.

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54113948

We can expect three positive pieces of news next week.

1. NY reopens cinemas.
2. More news leaked ahead of the positive 24th Sep H1 results.
3. AstraZeneca issues an update on the Phase 3 trials suspended.

You risk missing the boat talking this down.

I don’t see a lockdown in the U.K., any time soon.

Do you believe the government will look to close the schools again?

No.

Reason?

1. The government pushed for schools to resume in September. There is no chance they will introduce more disruption to children’s education by suspending them.

2. Hospitalisation and mortality still remains at all time lows. There just hasn’t been an increase in accordance with cases.

3. The economy has taken a beating and locks downs will be too damaging to contemplate.

4. The original lockdown was to alleviate the pressure on the NHS. At the moment, it is under utilised and far from being under strain.

All this aside it’s important to keep in mind that the U.S is doing a great job keeping their cases and mortality low, so much so the majority of states have reopen their cinemas. We now await NY and CA to mature more and reopen more cities and districts.

The derampers flooding this BB are posting in vain.

Investors are aware that 75% of Cineworld’s business is in the US and the recent announcement from the government is to utilise the rule of 6. Couple this with an ask to stop being tested if you’re asymptomatic, we can expect October numbers to be back to below 1.

WB Aquaman was released 14 December 2018 and played over Christmas and generated $1bn through box office.

WB know what they are doing and want Tenet to enjoy more exclusivity.

When you consider Cineworld operates 75% of its estate in the US, and matches or exceeds AMC cinemas reopening in states (i.e. New Jersey), it is very relevant.

Cineworld will join AMC and their share price to near pre-covid levels. The 24th will be telling as there has been strong suggestion from CEO, Mooky they have squeezed costs and reduced cash burn. This is what investors want to read about. How liquid they are and how long they can operate to, appreciating this pandemic will be behind us next year, one would imagine.

Why we look at AMC so closely?

Last week, AMC surpassed a Hold rating and $7.00 price target, effectively telling analysts at Wedbush they got it wrong when they cited AMC was debt burden and wouldn’t survive in comparison to Cinemark.

Source: https://www.wedbush.com/movie-theater-companies-could-face-long-term-impacts-from-social-distancing/

AMC is heavily shorted. If you think 8% of Cineworld is high, consider AMC st 30% short being almost 4 times more bears betting against it. Yet, it has proven them wrong and looks to be on a path for stronger recovery.

Have faith Cineworld investors, if AMC can prove shorters at 30% wrong, we can certainly do the same at 8%.

There will be far too many movies for 2021 given a lot of the slate for 2020 was pushed.

As for production for 2022, this has already restarted for

- Mission Impossibel 7 + 8; both are being shot back to back
- Avatar 2
- Jurassic World: Dominion
- Disney's The Little Mermaid
- The Batman
- Elvis (Tom Hanks)

Plenty to keep audiences entertained.

The trend has broken and we can expect more wanting to go out and enjoy their evenings, particularly as the day light hours reduce and the weather becomes cooler. An indoor venue for a meal and a movie is a great evening, planned.

I agree; the fundamentals support this share to a good recovery. When that will be? Well it can certainly be before 24th September as many start taking positions, increasing and certainly looking to CLOSE shorts, before this time as Peel Hunt and many are saying the news announcement will be POSITIVE.

The current share price is at 53p. The idea that any stale news about debt levels, operating capacity or other risks around Covid are just noise. If these concerns didn't exist, the share price would be 150p+

It will join AMC on a 90% recovery in share price, we just need to see out the 24th September and await more openings in the US around NY and CA. They will come, it's just a waiting game now.

For a number of weeks the R-value in the UK has remained below one, ranging from 0.7-1.0, and is despite now being 1 in some regions, doesn't mean we are going to see a national lockdown.

Experts say that as the number of infections in the UK drops, R becomes a less effective way of looking at transmission rates, especially regional R values.

As a result, the government will publish growth rates and this is what they have been doing.

It has demonstrated that the most vulnerable are seeing declining cases, i.e 80+ 40% down from last month.
The 20-29 year old has increased by they are asymptomatic and presenting no increase to mortality and hostpitalisation.

Source: https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/is-the-covid-19-r-number-still-a-useful-measure/

Stan Laurel and Oliver Hardy more like.

Edit: With Voting rights attached to financial instruments now increases to 7.87% !!

2.66% to 4.11%

Source: https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/cineworldplc1/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=655&newsid=1412890

5. Rates growing fastest among those aged 10-29, and decreasing in the older age groups. Those in the age of group 10-29 are virtually all asymptomatic.
6. UK mortality and hostpitalisation concerning Covid is at al time lows.

Don't be fooled into selling by shorters. This is a screaming buy and we will join AMC in a matter of weeks in an appropriate recovery as we lead towards 24th September and H1 results reveal just how aggressive cost savings have been and the good liquidity position that brokers and critics acknowledge.

1. Only 12% of Cineworld's cinemas operate in the UK
2. The US (75%) are demonstrating a very good control on numbers, 66% of their Cinemas are now open there.
3. We await NY and more of California to re-open. News is likely to come next Wednesday 16/09 as Governor Cuomo is expected to share more positive news, given: Bowling Alleys are open along with Gyms and Casinos - touch points and more high risk that cinemas that operate static, staggered seating with patrons facing forward and not interfacing with one another.
4. The UK has made it clear the 6 rule is NOT a national lockdown. The economy cannot afford this and schools have re-open, millions of children attend school, no face mask, no distances and pushing and shoving one another, never mind respecting any boundries.

This will be going up as NY and CA open more and we see WW84, Tenet continue, Bond and Marvel's Black Widow screen in the coming weeks.

Looks like the market is reacting to the fact that it was duped with the prospect of a national lockdown. It didn't materalise and we can expect our inveitble rise back to 60p+ now.

Great news and the market is reacting accordingly,

AstraZeneca’s coronavirus vaccine could still be available by the end of the year, or early next year, according to the company’s chief executive, Pascal Soriot, despite clinical trials being paused after a volunteer fell ill.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/sep/10/oxford-covid-19-vaccine-is-still-possible-this-year-says-astrazeneca-chief

Andre Rieu, proclaimed violinist has expressed his disappointment that live concerts will be suspended BUT a lucrative agreemnt has been signed with cinemas to show case these exploiting their BIG SCREEN and AUDIO system to take full advantage of the theatrical experience and mimic a concert experience.

We are already aware of country courts looking to exploit the cinema, could we also come to see more music concernts and maybe even theater broadcasting the arts to cinema goers, ALONG with big Blockbusters?

Source: https://intl.andreincinemas.com/

Totally agree - it was driven down on the fear that the government would introduce a further lockdown.
The reality?

1. Professor Chris Whitty accepts that the most vulnerable group 80 years+ are at the lowest they have been
2. Hospitalisations are DOWN
3. Mortality is DOWN.
4. Most cases being reported amongst the younger group, 20-29 UP 80% BUT asymptomatic
5. Government has now said TOO many are getting tested unncessarily read: we know you're asymptomatic so don't take-up so many tests and we can drive down the new cases.

July figures now in demonstrating improved resilience and an upward trend in retail and spending/GDP is a postive sign.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/07/coronavirus-young-people-urged-to-follow-rules-as-uk-cases-rise

The market is waking up that each month will continue to demonstrate confidence and given schools have resumed, millions of children, sitting with one another and the data revealing that new cases amongst the younger demographic may be going up but importantly hospitalisation and excessive testing is being undertaken, I can see figures going down.

The government has effectively said, if you feel fine, don't order the kit - read: asymptomatic? Don't get tested.

This is a clever ploy by the government that will see figures come down drastically.

Nice pice from AMC's head who is very confident and his reasoning is sound.

"There are certain advantages to watching a film on a 40-foot screen to watching it on a 40-inch screen."

"If the pandemic has taught us anything, it’s that people will do anything to get out of their house or their apartment. If you told me right now I could go spend three hours at a hardware store, I would tell you that’s an exciting afternoon."

We have witness this ourselves when B&Q, McDonalds etc all saw queues.

Many studios are watching NY very closely and CA for more re-openings.

Once they come through we can expect confidence with studios to increase and don't forget when you have a catalogue of movies, you need to spread them out, you cannot defer them all to 2021, else it won't maixmise screen time between new movies.

Source: https://www.cinemablend.com/news/2554394/why-amcs-head-honcho-is-confident-people-will-return-to-movie-theaters