Member Info for RS2002

Morning All - couldn't agree more.

I just topped-up on NEX as the majority of their business is outside the U.K and they reported a profit up until H1 2020 in the U.S despite the constraints.

As for Cine, each time it is hit, it has found support higher so I can see us in the 42-50p range until results which will be coming soon.

This isn't a broker rating, this is the BoD outlining their roadmap to recovery and akin to their competitor, AMC, we can expect a postive update. Peel Hunt expect this as well that come 24th Sep (3 days) we can expect some assurances from the Cineworld BoD.

Investors need to remain strong and expect a short attack on Monday.
Don't let them drive the price down.

Does anyone have sight of buys vs sells?

Sid, don’t get emotional.

Use the opportunity to buy on the dips

*Sony (in place of Don’t <- autocorrect )

There is a concern that October is becoming a very light month and may prompt cinemas to close according to articles.

Don’t has pushed Connected, a movie I was looking forward to watching. That said it’s NOT moved to 2021 just later in Q4 2020.

Source: https://www.screendaily.com/news/sony-pushes-connected-deeper-into-2020-as-speculation-mounts-over-black-widow/5153269.article

Sony has moved Connected, the anticipated animation movie from October.

This is spooking many that Marvel/Disney will do the same for Black Widow.

I don’t believe it will, Black Widow would turn impact the rosta for several big Marvel movies and Disney need to maintain the release date of 6th November.

Source: https://www.screendaily.com/news/sony-pushes-connected-deeper-into-2020-as-speculation-mounts-over-black-widow/5153269.article

Incredible, you are openly advertising that you have inside information? You are aware this is a criminal offence to then use this for your advantage.

Yes additional loans with maturity for 2023/2025 but I wanted to highlight that the RCF shouldn’t used to insinuate an increase in loan. That is a good thing f and helps.

As for EBITDA, Cine need to demonstrate $388m for the December 2020 test. Let’s wait for H1 results 24th

RCF increased but that is just it.

It’s revolving credit facility and like a credit card just because you have a higher limit doesn’t mean you will drawn down all of it.

Best, you can make early payments and clear it off without penalty.

It’s misleading to suggest an increased RCF is more debt it’s just a higher credit limit (should you need it).

So far all we have received is estimates; we patiently await the H1 results which will make clear exactly what cash burn is and what forecast is planned until H1 2021, when one can predict we should have admissions back to at least 80% if just one of several global vaccine programmes are successful, based on current news from infection and health specialists.

You have quoted Fitch, Investroid but I'll quote Jefferies in return:

"Liquidity extended, covenants waived. CINE’s 28 May update showed that lenders will waive leverage covenants. CINE has also extended liquidity by $180m: $110m in the RCF, $45m through the CLBILS loan scheme in the UK and an application for $45m from the US Cares Act. In June, CINE announced a further $250m from a private placement. We estimate a c.$40m monthly cash burn for CINE standalone (with only 15% of rents paid), the extension/placement extends cash burn to c18 months (from March 2020). <----- September 2021 (i.e well after H1)

Looking through. Major new film releases have been delayed, reflecting cinema attendance uncertainty in the USA: Disney’s Mulan and the Christopher Nolan movie Tenet have both been delayed indefinitely (were summer releases). Cineworld is aiming to open US cinemas on 21 August. Once cinemas are permitted to open, social distancing measures may be in place, which would limit revenue generation and add short-term staffing costs. However, compared to many leisure venues with greater densities, we think solutions are workable in cinemas, with spaced seating and revised viewing schedules.

Current estimates. In mid-March, we cut numbers to reflect a 10% admissions decline across all divisions. We have not included a specific view on COVID-19 in our formal forecasts beyond a 10% FY20E admissions decline, but our ‘two months shut’ scenario shows a 40% EBITDA downgrade for FY20E. Our current FY21E estimates effectively assume flat admissions versus FY19 (which were 14% below FY18 in the USA).

Granted shutdown was 5 months (April to August), Mooky was quoted as saying costs are 70% variable and in turn break-even from 20% and profit from 25% occupancy/admissions is capable.

We know H1 is a loss overall, but this is about longevity of their business model.

You to quote my friend, Jawad: “you okay, hun?” @ DStrat1274

Shorters are buying in readiness to CLOSE their positions.

They will report a loss we know, but we want to know how bad a loss and what the liqudidity position is and how they are setup to survive the balance of 2020 and into 2021 when we can expect a vaccine.

I'm actually cringing for you @ johnht.

What a woeful attempt to deramp.

2024 lol

After Mulan doing so poorly on PVOD, I don't see Disney skipping theatrical release.

It has also been quoted that each delay for their MCU titles, has a knock on/domino impact to the next release.

A lot of these movies have synergy and interdependent plot lines.

Disney have a good opportunity to proceed given WB has pushed WW84 to December.

Black Widow will maintain its release date for November.

Where is the news from Disney/Marvel this is being delayed? This is just hearsay.

This is about a road to recovery, Indepth.

No industry can expect an immediete 100% recovery to pre-covid, that said at the current SP the bad news is priced in.

If you were to come and post here that at 224p (Jan 2020) Cineworld was not performing and accurate to the share price, I would agree with you.

At 49p, the current performance and road to recovery is oversold and needs to be at a price more akin to 68p+ as we saw last week.

Tenet is the canary in the coalmine and if we look to Asia we can see they have

a) Recovered to pre-covid Box office with 50% capacity admissions
b) Set to increase admissions/capacity to 75% which suggests.... drum roll... their box office performance will be HIGHER than pre-covid.

Is the alternative inside information, Ash? lol

We will wait and see. What we do know is cinema remain open and there is a movie catalogue of a good 8 to play