Member Info for RS2002

That was my post where I cited that Johnht had published S&P’s forecast of a 2021 recovery to box office to the tune of 80-85% (of 2019 levels).

I said investors would gladly take that.

My Johnhts logic that would imply a share price recovery of 85% of Jan 2020 share price (225p) suggesting 191.25p was within the realms.

I said we would gladly take that but Johnny’s paymasters weren’t too pleased with that revelation.

It was a faux pas from Johnht to quote such so I imagine he was disciplined or his account was transferred to the next graduate and he rotated tea duty.

Johnht and Indepth don’t realise that by frequently spamming this site with their desperate antics, they in fact undermine their credibility further.

They will cite dampers and echo chambers and then play the martyr. The reality is this BB won’t influence the share price as much as they or their paymasters want it to.

Most shares are held my institutions and they are banking on short term volatility.

Everyman cinemas published their results and their share price is down 2p; they saw earnings down 90% but the market expected such. They were closed for Q2 and it will be a slow recovery to 2021 Q1 when I believe we will see bigger traction.

For now, let us await debt covenant tests waived, speaking of which Vue cinema achieved this, which brings confidence to Cineworld investors. For the next four testing dates until 31st August 2021. Instead, Vue will need to comply with a minimum liquidity test. The firm has no maturities until 2025. The market will assess this news and begin to speculate the same, until of course, Cineworld announce their position formally.

For me, it’s a hold on CINE as part of a portfolio comprising of some recovery plays. Good luck, all and don’t get irritated or emotional. It’s all good sport.

Bit of a faux pas there, Johnht.

You've disclosed projections for 2021, which is what most want to see.

You've done your camp a huge disservice and a major own goal.

Of course 2020 is going to be lacklustre; it's only just re-open and has Bond to look forward to in November (MGM will have a clear path and no real competition so should do well, particularly with Thanksgiving in the US in the same month).

As for 2021, many will gladly take an 80-85% recovery in box office.

I don't want to accuse you of ramping, John but do you think we might see 80-85% of the share price recover to 2019's share price?

A share price of Jan 2020 at 225p, recovered by 85% would be 191.25p.

Is this what you're saying we can expect, Johnht?!

Perhaps I misjudged you....

1. Cineworld have lease liabilities that they have published in their 2020 H1 presentation that they have:
"Secured rent relief and deferral with most of our landlords"

This to me suggests, most of their current lease liabilities are appropriately deferred.

Source (Slide 4): https://www.cineworldplc.com/sites/cineworld-plc/files/reports-presentation/2020/interim-results-presentation-2020.PDF

2. Cineworld have stated they can remain OPERATIONAL until September 2021, performing AS-IS. So you're wrong, Johnht that they only have funds to December 2020, unless you mean December 2021 which is a possibility if they continue their cost reduction programme.

"The Group's forecasts and projections, taking account of reasonably possible changes in trading performance, show that the Group should be able to operate within the level of its current facilities for at least 12 months from the approval date of these interim consolidated financial statements, however the covenants are forecast to be breached at 30 December 2020, 30 June 2021 and 31 December 2021. The expectation of the Directors is that waivers will be obtained"

Source: https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/cineworldplc1/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=655&newsid=1418344

"15% to 20% in 2021 versus 2019"

I will gladly take that and I'm sure many investors, will too.

If we can see Box office recover to 80-85% of 2019 next year, John I can see many realising the future recovery.

Great post, John!

No surprise that over 75% of Cinema audiences are UNDER the age of 45, with 15-24 year olds and 25-34 year olds representing the largest groups.

This is a very resilient group who won't want to stay at home with a cup of tea watching Emmerdale.

They will want to enjoy socialising and a meal and a cinema viewing is a staple part of an autumn/winter evening.

Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/239169/age-distribution-of-cinema-goers-in-the-uk/

I'm with you dreamachine.

William Hill has done exceptionally well.

National Express is preforming very well and I see good prospects in the future for them.

Cineworld will take a while, but I see the recovery there, too.

I'm a patient investor who can read the Cineworld report and make up my own conclusions without being coerced:

Slide 3: Net Debt $4bn (pre-IRFS 16).

I know that rent negotiations are underway so why would I be looking at lease labilities knowing full well they will be deferred/relaxed.

Slide 4: Secured rent relief and deferral with most of our landlords

Source: https://www.cineworldplc.com/sites/cineworld-plc/files/reports-presentation/2020/interim-results-presentation-2020.PDF

The vast majority of the thousands of ventilators manufactured under an emergency U.K. program to treat Covid-19 patients have gone unused and are sitting in storage, the government’s public spending watchdog said in a new report.

97% of those built during the "ventilator challenge" are in storage.

I believe a post analysis/assessment will be undertaken and this will reveal:

1. An over-reaction
2. A mishandling of shutting down the country which will NEVER be repeated
3. Acceptance that those who did sadly pass away had underlying issues and that they passed WITH covid and not neccessarily BECAUSE of covid.

My opinion is we won't see another national lockdown. We don't see deaths anywhere near the March/April levels and like China, we will see a recovery emerge in a matter of months.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-29/u-k-ventilators-cost-569-million-pounds-most-are-in-storage

Great to see Damian Sanders, putting his money where his mouth is.

He was reported as someone with extensive financial and commercial experience; over 20 years as a senior equity audit partner at Deloitte, acting as advisor and corporate governance specialist for a number of FTSE boards.

If he can assess the financial position and purchase shares at 43p, that gives me added confidence.

We know that IRFS has changed so I can see poor Johht posting $8bn debt, when in fact it is $4bn net debt excluding lease liabilities.

Cineworld reduced this debt from $4bn in 2018 to $3.3bn in 2019, so whilst this is a reset, because of covid, I can see them undertaking an extended cost reduction programme to drive this down over time.

The website I posted is just ONE of many that publishes the LATEST analyst ratings.

You can search for them yourself using think link if it helps:
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=cineworld+analyst+ratings

I'm afraid singling out a single rating is going to be bias, much the same way I would say we ONLY pay attention to PEEL and HUNT who afford a 180p rating.

You have to look at them collectively and assess the average score which again, the websites (dozens of them) do.

The average rating is a BUY.

This will be an uncomfortable truth for you but I cannot change that for you.

The ratings are the most current. Peel Hunt published theirs on 24/08/20 for example.

The websites can only report on the averages to maintain impartiality. That doesn't suit your narative to bash this stock to drive it down, but it is what it is.

Source: https://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations/cineworld-shares-set-for-hard-bounce-says-peel-hunt--7617294.html

@indepth You could email dozens of these analyst websites which take all the ratings and present the average and explain to them that covid has singled out Cineworld within leisure and hospitality. That no other company/stock has been impacted and that the risk of covid is only prevalent at Cineworld and that they should only post the negative analyst rating.

What do you believe the reply from them to be, if you were to do that?

Investors, DYOR and pay no attention to the rampers or de-rampers.

@Indepth so what you're really trying to say is, you want to specifically drive a narrative by SINGLING out an analyst rating rather than look at a collection of them and, like the industry, work on an average.

It would seem the websites offering this don't do that. They instead post ALL of the ratings and then assess the average which they ALL seem to be doing. This is so they don't present a bias to any one rating.

Investors, this is a recovery stock. It won't creep-up to £1+ overnight, but if you ignore the noise, assess the risk profile and buy into this stock, you COULD see a significant correction, on the basis of vaccine news.

The LATEST rating is from Peel Hunt who rate this at 180p on the basis of steady recovery/progress.

@indepth for the sake of impartality it would be better to post ALL of the analyst targets, not just the positive and not just the negative. Wouldn't you agree?

I'll do that now for your transparency for my fellow investors:

1 Sell Rating(s)
4 Hold Rating(s)
8 Buy Rating(s)
0 Strong Buy Rating(s)

CINE Consensus Rating: Buy
CINE Consensus Price Target: GBX 245.38

Source: https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/LON/CINE/price-target/

@indepth - that is NOT correct.

NOFEAR started this thread to illustrate that MILLIONS will miss screening (regardless of what device is used) it's about the consultation and need to get a concern looked at.

In the context of mortality, I posted from ONS that cancer takes 450 lives a day on average, significantly higher than the mortality rate we are seeing with Covid and as posted, this is LOWER than seasonal flu.

It would appear the NOVEMBER 2020 release date remains!

Great news for investors who patiently await the recovery of this stock.

Source: https://www.empireonline.com/movies/news/james-bond-is-getting-an-official-podcast-for-no-time-to-die/

Apologies! Wrong BB

It would appear the NOVEMBER 2020 release date remains!

Great news for investors who patiently await the recovery of this stock.

Source: https://www.empireonline.com/movies/news/james-bond-is-getting-an-official-podcast-for-no-time-to-die/

Agree, NOFEAR.

The ONS have it in black and white:

Over a year, cancer – of all kinds – kills some 165,000 people, which would be an average of 450 people per day.

Covid-19 did not even feature in the top ten leading causes of death in August in England or Wales – with 482 fatalities, it came 24th, after lung cancer, colorectal cancers, prostate cancer, liver disease and even flu.

As we continue to monitor, we will see that projections of doubling each week have been grossly exaggerated and per your point, national restrictions which the government just can not afford at the detriment of public wellbeing won’t be reintroduced.

Agree, one poster commented given the staff reduction for theme parks they wouldn’t have funds to complete a takeover/merger.

The idea that a conglomerate as Disney, covering multiple business and industry sectors would have a single budget, is absurd. Theme parks will have their own management and budgets and Disney studios completely different.

Disney like any company in leisure and hospitality will have a flexible workforce and employ temporary staff and upscale and downscale according to demand and footfall. That doesn’t out-rule their other business areas looking at mergers and acquisitions.

Could you explain where that post which you cites recovery will come to £1, tomorrow? It states that Cineworld has (factually) seen recovery in as little as four trading days to £1, given the volatility this share repeatedly exhibits.

22 May 2020 = 58p
26 May 2020 = 69p close
27 May 2020 = 77p close
28 May 2020 = 102p intra-day high

If you in fact read the post carefully you will note that my primary prediction was sufficient liquidity to see them through this pandemic. This was confirmed by the BoD in the H1 report, whilst they look at addressing debt covenant waivers:

“ The Group’s forecasts and projections, taking account of reasonably possible changes in trading performance, show that the Group should be able to OPERATE within the level of its current facilities for at least 12 months from the approval date of these interim consolidated financial statements, however the covenants are forecast to be breached at 30 December 2020, 30 June 2021 and 31 December 2021. The expectation of the Directors is that waivers will be obtained.”

The above states they have enough to operate as-is to September 2021. A rights issue or additional liquidity won’t be required unless:

1. Another lockdown comes into effect forcing closure of the estate. Governments are against this and the hospital and mortality rates just aren’t rising linear with cases, which are now demonstrating a decline.

2. The BoD in my opinion, and per my earlier post which you kept referring to as ramps, because they presented an alternative view from your constantly doom/de-ramping was March 2021 is the most logical time to review the liquidity position as a checkpoint. This would allow the BoD to assess where a vaccine is at, where consumer confidence is at, what movies remain on schedule and 2021 looks to be a busy period given so many movies have deferred then. It will also allow forecasts to be taken to assess if enough liquidity is available to September 2021 (6 months from March) to then consider fund raising.

Now, John. Go through my posts and explain where I said the recovery to £1+ will come tomorrow. You will find that I remain optimistic for a RECOVERY and that my target is certainly £1+

You see like many like minded investors, I recognise use this as a share that has lost 80-90% of its share price value. This will recover as progress and developments mature.

So John, you are free to call out anyone who presents an alternative opinion to you as a ramper, because that alternative opinion worries you and goes to undermine your constant bashing.

Time will tell, John. For now, debt waivers to come and Bond to maintain November. We can then assess gradual vaccine news. It won’t be over night but all supports the path to recovery.