Member Info for RS2002

Thanks all for posting the summary. I was in a conference call so couldn't join but will watch it later.

I'm glad the Bod have appeased the shareholders and the fact that the liqudidity position allows them to remain open as-is to September 2021, gives me comfort that we can join them on a natural road to recovery alinged to their competitors and industry peers.

*The US I mean is the predominate market

@investroid - it's called balanced reporting.

Any risk assessment would do the same.

I'm well aware that Covid 19 has wreaked havoc on leisure and cinema and Cineworld has been a casualty, it's the reason the share price is currently 42p rather than 164p (Jan 2020).

The UK fear of a national lockdown is a last resort and the UK government is making every effort to avoid this and introducing mitigation but that is it - mitigation to avoid a lockdown.

The UK where this market predominately operates isn't seeing an increase in cases so I remain optimistic that a vaccine will be with us before March 2021 at which point we can look back at the share price and assess the risk statement and establish its merit.

Guitarman, don't take this wrong, but you are far too emotional at this moment.

As others have revealed, if you're going to the lenders, cap in hand to waive covenants do you really turn-up with a party hat and a bottle of Bollinger?

Latpull played it well yesterday, got out at 50p in profit and successfully day traded. I am hopeless at day trading so I remain invested, average down and await the price to recover. That may not be a good strategy in the eyes of others but for me it is the lowest risk and I remain firm in the fundamentals.

If you don't need your funds imminently, why crystallise a paper loss?

I will come out a wild prediction that the 0930 meeting will present some further news on H2 and beyond.

Remember this paper and report was H1 (the past), we need to look at the roadmap to recovery now.

Hanging by a string?

Really? 12 months of facilities and cash available to sustain itself to see it through the worst, which I believe it has. Q2 is behind us now. Yes, performance will be slow on the uptake, but it will get there.

Rome wasn't built in a day. I have always agreed with those stating we shouldn't be quoting "£1.50 next week", those are ramps indeed but equally, those coming here acting out in shock and awe that losses have been reported, quell surprise can be put in the same category as those rampers.

I await the presentation at 0930 and I will watch developments and news and remain optimistic, nothing wrong with that as I believe in the longevity of global cinema.

Studios do as well - why so? Well they didn't put their big budget movies on PVOD following Mulan’s' disastrous performance; they have deferred to 2021 when as I said earlier come March 2021, 6 months from now we can expect a very good return on the current share price and performance significantly picked-up in admission if the projections on global vaccines are anything to go by.

Not just enough liqudity until Sep 2021, but importanty whilst OPERATING.

The derampers came on earlier citing that Cineworld couldn't sustain itself open; that the cash burn was too high and they would only survive if they were closed.

Well that is contrary to what has been posted by the BoD:

The Group's forecasts and projections, taking account of reasonably possible changes in trading performance, show that the Group should be able to OPERATE within the level of its current facilities for at LEAST 12 months from the approval date of these interim consolidated financial statements, however the covenants are forecast to be breached at 30 December 2020, 30 June 2021 and 31 December 2021. The expectation of the Directors is that waivers will be obtained.

This has been glossed over and is huge news as many long term investors, aren't day trading, nor are they quoting silly ramped up figures expected in a week, rather they await a natural recovery across all industries and leisure and cinema being one of them.

Good luck, all.

Do your own research and take all views (postive and negative) but don't let others influence your decision on how you invest.

Reading the concern statement from the BoD:

"The Group's forecasts and projections, taking account of reasonably possible changes in trading performance, show that the Group should be ABLE TO OPERATE within the level of its CURRENT facilities for at least 12 months from the approval date of these interim consolidated financial statements, however the covenants are forecast to be breached at 30 December 2020, 30 June 2021 and 31 December 2021. The expectation of the Directors is that waivers will be obtained. "

They have enough liqudidity to keep them afloat whilst OPERATING, not closed as some have cited.

This should give comfort to investors, come Q1 2021, when we can expect a vaccine to be approved and distributed, global markets will recover.

Some are posting here as if Q2 losses were a complete surprise; they have an agenda, but I make my own decisions up and remain invested.

Good luck, all.

You have really demonstrated your immaturity, Investroid.

Please explain where most investors have ramped with astronomical predictions?

Most have simply cited that this is a road to recovery and they believe in the fundamentals.

I've posted "My Take" you can read it below and comment there if you wish.

Q2 was a loss operating month, it was peak Summer box office period but that is now behind us and investors have a choice, exit at a loss or small profit depending on their entry or they can await the developments.

Coming on her and calling out investors as delinquents and cronies simply reveals your immaturity.

I continue to hold my shares as I've diversifed my portfolio but I am a long term investors who sees a good return March 2021.

1. The results are to 30 June 2020. They DO NOT account for unlimited membership revenue that only resumed in August across territories
2. Q2 was closed so we have to accept zero income
3. Debt covenant waivers are being discussed with lenders which is encouraging and "The expectation of the Directors is that waivers will be obtained" so and I believe this will complete in the next month
4. They quote they need to see CA and NY the biggest states re-open by the end of October if their performance predictions are to materialise. Given CA has opened most districts and NY continues to demonstrate low cases, I can see this happening in 4 weeks, so remain optimistic.
5. Net Debt has factored operating leases which are being negotiated with landlords, so expect further new soon on this
6. Many were hoping to see 35p, it didn't happen as they have accepted these are H1 results
7. Cineworld confirm they have enough liquidity for 12 months from the issue of the H1 results so that is End of September 2020 and I imagine Q1 2021 they will look at performance, state of Covid and complete projections to establish if they have enough to see them through. That to me, suggests no new on dilution yet, they have enough to defer this to next year before it rears its head.

Other:

a) Takeover or merger could come at this price with a studio or Chinese player
b) China is a growing cinema/theatrical market set to OVERTAKE U.S Domestic box office - could we see expansion into the Asian market?
c) Vaccine news is progressing with suggestions it will be "readily available" Q1 2021 so this would boost all industries
d) Chancellor is set to outline a recovery plan for winter 2020 and into Q1 2021, so we await the stimulus and support that will prop the market

Good luck all.

Tenet isn't the only movie going. The problem the US domestic market faces is that the big cities like NYC, LA and San Fran aren't open to cinemas, yet.

We are aware that Mooky reported sold out screenings and the movie "After We Collided" is doing remarkably well. This is just one movie, but it suggests that a wider release does still drive box office sales

The movie was done on a $14m budget and has turned over $30m so far.

Keep in mind the first movie was released on Netflix; such was the demand the studios decided to put the movie onto the big screen and well, read the quote:

"After three weekends, it stands at £1.7 million and outperformed Tenet in terms of per-screen average, with a strong chance of toppling it from the top spot this coming weekend if it reproduces its 35% week-on-week increase."

Week on week increase Granted, this is just one movie the fact that studios are deferring their movies rather than put to VOD/PVOD suggests they recognise the value of theatrical release and would rather wait than take a loss akin to Mulan and the inherit piracy issues such a medium attracts.

Source: https://www.digitalspy.com/movies/a34120834/after-we-collided-harry-styles-box-office/

Let's see what the results tell us and where they have their game plan.

Spoofing precious metal futures to drive up demand and profiteer.

A lot were bleating on about their downgrade of Cineworld and then monitoring them increase their position.

Question: Do you want to to look at one broker rating per the majority including Peel Hunt which rated Cineworld as a BUY with a price target of 180p.

I don’t believe that will come in a week.

We need to see H1 results and the commentary and roadmap from Mooky and the BoD to illustrate to investors, exactly what they are doing to restore shareholder value.

I await, tomorrow.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-23/jpmorgan-jpm-is-set-to-pay-1-billion-in-record-spoofing-penalty

Disney clearly VALUE the theatrical release. Why didn’t they go PVOD? This should demonstrate demand to all investors; studios NEED cinemas and the theatrical stream is just too LUCRATIVE to give up.

Agree, Johny I also don't see any of the resident posters and investors ramping £1 this or that. Instead they recognise that Cineworld is oversold and yes 2020 is a lacklustre year for box office takings, that is a given. This isn't about be so short sighted, it's recognised the value of a company that will grow and recovery into 2021 and this is what is due, tomorrow.

We will have a glimpse of the Q1 results, Mooky has stated these have been better than 2019, well it's his time to present such and then we can expect to see Q2 with zero income and exactly what the cash burn is.

As long as they demonstrate resilience in the face of Covid, illustrate to investors, what they have done and not just simply sit on their hands, it will instil confidence and the market will react accordingly.

Price predictions? I have no idea, so will await the market to correct accordingly.

Jangho have clearly recognised the need to BUY IN BEFORE the H1 results. Why do you think that, Johny?

The US where Cineworld OPERATES 75% of its business is doing very well against Covid.
The UK where Cineworld OPERATES 12% of its business has advertised that it WON'T be going into National lockdown and no further restrictions imposed on cinema attendance. If anything, the reduced pub opening hours will drive more footfall to cinemas.

Source: https://ar19.cineworld.co.uk/static/FullAnnualReportAndAccounts2019-8129de189852800e5c63bc9103cbca56.pdf

There is a web presentation by the BoD to deliver the good news.

Get yourself registered and put the champagne on ice (okay the latter part was a ramp :D)

I said it before and I'll say it again.

The update tomorrow is an "INVESTORS RELATIONS" exercise.

This is a presentation that will be streamed where the BoD will be putting many shareholders at ease with regards to the recovery plan.

All global industries including hospitality and leisure were impacted so it is in the interest of the lender to work out a new deal akin to AMC. They know the movie business for box office is a (2019 figures) $40 billion revenue generating stream.

It is far too lucrative and it suitably mitigates the risk of piracy that Disney's Mulan is suffering.

Hold firm and expect a presentation on the roadmap to recovery.

Don't forget 2021 has a HUGE catalogue of backlogged movies.

Vaccine news is imminent and Trump has an agenda to see this is used to support his re-election. Global markets will join this recovery.

AMC re-negotiated its debt and successfully refinanced at favourable terms. They took advantage of the low interest rates which have gone to significantly reduce debt servicing costs. When their cinemas shut down, they cut their staff to the minimum and, with the support of their landlords, stopped paying rent. Not all landlords co-operated and in Florida, they were in fact sued, but they remained firm to drive down their operational costs and cash burn.

Can we expect the same positive news from Cineworld?

I believe so.

Reason?

If I was a lender concerned I would call in a loan, not be so generous to push a conveant test date, like they did.
This now means Cineworld need only demonstrate a 1/3 of their EBITDA this year to pass a very relaxed test. Easily do able.

Why?

a. Jan-Mar were unaffected and Cineworld quoted stronger revenue Tegan 2019 this period.
b. Cineworld have had media exposure about their aggressive rent negotiations. Search, "Runcorn Cineworld" where they refused to reopen as it wasn’t going to be profitable, much to the disdain of the landlord. Music to investors ears.
c. Sufficient liquidity to remain closed for 18 months, Morgan Stanley say, not that it will be needed given all territories are open and more of California opens today and we patiently await NY and NYC.
d. Mooky said 70% of costs are variable and given they are using zero hour contract staff don’t have to keep any expensive staff on.

I think we can expect some positive updates from Mooky and the BoD, tomorrow.

Good luck, all

1. Q1 2020 performed stronger than Q1 2019, despite the late March restrictions
2. Unlimited memberships have been reactivated generating positive cash flow
3. Negotiations with landlords very successful with many agreeing to defer rent for 24 months, akin to AMC Enterainment?
4. Tax rebate on losses reported during H1
5. Re-iterate that they have sufficient liqudidity to support a second lockdown should it come about
6. Advertising partnerships have been renewed
7. Renegotiated covenant tests, deferred with lenders until July - December 2021
8. Conversations with studios have taken place offering solid support for 2021 / line-up of movies to be huge given backlog of movies

Any others?

Positive or negative welcome.

We should also keep in mind, this is an "investor relations" exercise.

Those two words should resonate in the ears of all looking at Cineworld.

This is an opportunity for Cineworld to further elbaborate on the earlier update that January, February were STRONGER performing months like for like 2019. I believe most of March was not impacted as the restrictions came in late, but we should consider Q1 performed as well if not better than 2019. Granted Q2 was a zero incoming reporting period, it's all about the cash burn from there on until end of June when the H1 reporting period ends. Mooky (CEO) made it clear that 70% of costs are variable, just how variable? Well, the fact that the share price remains in the 43p range tells you, many believe this will be a positive update, Mooky hinted to that as well ("good news coming soon", Bloomberg September).

If you believe in the fundamentals of cinema and Cineworld, hold and just wait for the natural recovery that will come across global markets and expect to see this BOUNCE hard as broker, Peel Hunt stated.