Member Info for RS2002

The whole point of staggering releases is to build up anticipation. It’s why, binge watching box sets can be off putting. You space them out to allow conversations to take place, franchises and up selling toys can take place including games and other discussions on fan sites etc.

It all adds to the MCU journey that so many enjoy.

Why on earth would you line up the movies back to back and then, consider the rival studios? Will you play amongst them as well? It makes sense for Disney/marvel to play out Black Widow and use it to test demand for the rest of the MCU catalogue

Let me help you, Indepth.

You missed this crucial quote.

“ Every single delay to Black Widow, which was originally scheduled to debut in the spring of 2020, pushes back every other MCU movie that follows it, because these things can’t be released out of order. And the movies are such big investments, it would be very difficult for them to earn back their budgets, even with a successful VOD release.”

So it would seem Disney are going to end up delaying a catalogue of movies all that need to play out in sequence and they may well steam roll ahead with theatrical as we

A) Hear more about NY and LA reopen
B) Vaccine mews progresses with Trump quoting 4 weeks and consumer confidence returning more as the cases decline

Read More: ‘Black Widow’ Is ‘Likely’ Getting Postponed Again | https://screencrush.com/black-widow-postponed-again/?utm_source=tsmclip&utm_medium=referral

He was just as stubborn as restaurants. They threaded a law suit and he backed down and permitted them to open at 25% capacity.

I expect some news, this week. There is a lot of pressure from NATO. These players have more weight than PIs and a lot more at stake.

A good new video has been produced to demonstrate to the NY governor and appropriate liaison officers to get the message, they are ready to rejoin the rest of the US. I am feeling optimistic we should hear something this week.

Governor Cuomo is under pressure to reopen as all other sectors have resumed with just cinemas left.

Source: https://www.spotlightnews.com/news/2020/09/15/video-theaters-show-lawmakers-how-a-night-at-the-movies-would-look-like-if-they-could-reopen/

Investroid states that cineworld has been losing money. Why then do we hear the complete opposite from the CEO himself, Mooky?

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-08-24/cineworld-ceo-says-he-s-very-optimistic-as-u-s-theaters-reopen-video

As for capacity, this has been quoted several times before. Capacity at just 20-25% can return a profit. Some even say 10%!

"Even at peak periods of time in a normal environment, our occupancy levels range from 20% to 30% and we can operate profitably during those scenarios," he said.

He added that Cinemark has seen attendance as low as 10% and still was able to turn a profit.“

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/cinemark-offers-a-look-at-movie-going-post-coronavirus.html

Those cinemas in the most expensive states of LA and NY have remained closed and again to draw comparison to AMC, they quoted that they had been able to defer ALL rentals whilst they were closed.

The logical question to ask is if the largest cinema group in the US (AMC) can negotiate with landlords to defer all rental costs and even risk legal pursuit for unpaid rent, do you think it’s logical that rival cinema operator Cineworld/Regal would do the same?

The clue is in the media leaks we have witness which suggest so.

“Cineworld is one of a number of UK companies that have refused to pay rent during the pandemic.“

They aren’t alone!

Read between the lines = CASH SAVINGS $$$$

“ Sports Direct, Boots and Travelodge are among the other firms that have withheld payments either partially or in full.

In March the government introduced a three-month moratorium on lease forfeiture and debt enforcement to help businesses that are struggling to pay rent due to the lockdown.

This has since been extended to the end of September after the hospitality sector warned many businesses faced closure without further support.”

So don’t be surprised if Cineworld didn’t cough up a penny in rent since March to August/September.

I believe come, 24th we are going to be pleasantly surprised to see a big cost reduction and the liquidity position will be reaffirmed which will out to bed the derampers and their claims about an immediate rights issue. What I also want to see is some additional flexibility from lenders on debt covenant testing as well. 9.0 will be enough given Cineworld let slip, most of Q1 was unaffected and admissions were up year on year. Unlimited cards have been reactivated so we can expect to read about these as that is a nice income stream which will firm up their EBITDA figure which will be over $388m to satisfy the 9.0x ND ratio.

Source: https://www.cityam.com/coronavirus-cineworld-in-legal-battle-over-unpaid-lockdown-rent/

AMC has seen it being shorted at 30% and it was able to recover 80% of its price.

So those debating 8% shorts as a scare tactic just remind investors that shorters have been burnt before, and to ensure I keep this relevant to the sector, I won't draw a comparison with Tesla.

Please post up your rating, Investroid? I'll compare to Ivor's.

Rights issue/dilution??

Come back to us in 2021 when such a debate warrants conversing.

Cineworld have firmed up their liquidity and there is NO mention of any need to undertake dilution or RI.

Investroid logic: Company increases liquidity by RCF, various government support and $250m from private investors. Demonstrates it has enough liquidity to keep it afloat even Fitch the beloved Debt rating agency quoted they have alleviated liquidity concerns, yet you believe they need to do a RI at 30% of the current share price.

Keep waiting whilst we see a steady improvement with general market sentiment improving towards 24th Sep.

@ investroid

I'll point you to this quote where Ivor Jones, voted TOP analyst in Leisure was quoted stating:

"Peel Hunt noted that the Cineworld share price has fallen further than any other in its sector coverage, but said it should "bounce hard" once investors are reassured over demand."

It is perfectly rational to compare the performance of a competitor in the same sector.

I note you didn't rebute the other points I raised, now that is a LMAO observation.

Source: https://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations/cineworld-shares-set-for-hard-bounce-says-peel-hunt--7617294.html

To answer your other points:

- 9% short? It was 14% shorted when it was 164p earlier this year.
- Peel Hunt are repuatable brokers. Rated #1 for 3 years in a row, UK Mid & Small Cap Research in the 2020 Extel & II Survey.
-Ivor Jones (who scored Cineworld BUY and 180p target) joined Peel Hunt in 2016. He started covering Leisure companies in 1998 and latterly his focus has been on gambling companies while maintaining research coverage across the sector. Ivor worked at Citigroup as head of the European Leisure team for 10 years. He left Citi in 2006, and subsequently worked for Panmure Gordon, Evolution Securities and most recently Numis Securities for 6 years. In the 2018 Extel &II Survey, Ivor was ranked the TOP ANALYST in Leisure, voted by corporates. Ivor read law at University College, London.

Those are some pretty impressive credentials. TOP ANALYST in Leisure. Which industry does Cineworld operate in, Investroid?

If you can kindly share with me your credentials, I'll happily consider them.

Careful there - Fitch did NOT say Cineworld is uninvestable.

They talk about it's DEBT rating.

I don't need to school you on the difference between DEBT SECURITY trading and EQUITIES TRADING by way of stock purchase.

If you're a big boy who is looking to trade debt security then please allow me to get out of your way. If you're a private investor (PI), then don't misrepresent what Fitch are saying.

They score Cineworld as Grade B .

The default risk of grade B for debt security? 6%

Lenders are SO CONFIDENT in Cineworld they INCREASED their ND/EBITDA ratio from 5.5x to 9.0x.
Cineworld passed this test in 2019 at 3.4x SCORING 62% HIGHER than they needed to. No surprise that lenders were willing to relax this to 9.0x this year.

Cineworld will PASS their debt covenant test this December 2020 with ample room to spare, given we had a 06 March RNS that stated their first two months generated more in admissions than last year.

The next test will be July 2021 at 5.5x and given the progress of a global vaccine and the V recovery that will follow, I believe Cineworld is projected to meet this covenant test and pass it too.

AMC Entertainment's debt score? B as well.

Cineworld = B
AMC = B

Now given AMC has recovered to about 80% of it’s pre-Covid price, Cineworld in comparison is at 30% of it’s pretty-Covid price.

Why is Cineworld priced at ~50p given it has mitigated so much risk.

Answer: OVERSOLD.

24th Sep will reset that.

Investroid is posting here because he WANTS a piece of Cineworld.

It's the Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO).

He is well aware that it stands a good chance to recover once 24th H1 financials are posted. Peel Hunt said it themselves:

"Peel said that by the time the interims are due on 24 September, both trading and updated information from management should be positive for the share price."

If Investroid doesn't get in before 24th September, he will be left on the side lines again (like last time when he exit at 38p) and licking his wounds. This has dipped to 49p, tomorrow given the positive news from external influences like vaccine and continued US reduced covid cases (see AMC), we can expect this to bounce back-up to 50p.

There have been buys on the book order at 48-49p amounting to £500k, someone is clearly loading up getting a position. Question is why aren't you?

Source: https://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations/cineworld-shares-set-for-hard-bounce-says-peel-hunt--7617294.html

You left out this quote from the article you posted, Investroid.

Only happy to post that for you.

"Most analysts AGREE that it won't have much trouble crossing the $500 million mark, the number it needs to turn a profit. Just how much it will make beyond that is up in the air."

See earlier post from WB Head: marathon-versus-sprint approach.

Source: https://screenrant.com/tenet-movie-box-office-break-even-amount/

You would have more integrity if you just said "I'd like to enter into Cineworld again at my earlier exit of 38p. I regret selling at this price as it's a nice entry for me now"

Will you?

I'll take it from the WB head.

“We’re using the old marathon-versus-sprint approach. We’re in it for the long game,” she said. “It’s so unprecedented to launch it this way. We’re feeling good and waiting for some numbers to start coming in.”

How right she was, $200m is no paltry figure. It will carry on and await peak states like NY and more of California to open and we can expect more positive box office data.

Source: https://variety.com/2020/film/news/tenet-warner-bros-ann-sarnoff-hbo-max-1234758694/

Once NYC and LA (states where Cineworld operate 25% of its Regal cinemas) open we can expect to see Tenet, a thought provoking movie operate well in such cosmopolitan cities.

Wonder Woman 84 has moved to December but why didn't we hear about Dune moving? Because it remains in place and WB doesn't want to pit its movies against one another.

Personally, I think WW 84 should move to next year, leave Tenet playing and Dune and in conjunction with the other smaller movies such as "After We Collided" which cost JUST $14m yet has already generated $22m, there will be movies to accompany the big blockbusters.

Don't forget big blockbusters were usuall preserved for Spring-Summer, many small/medium movies can still play this time.

As the colder season approaches, we can expect more footfall to cinemas to satisfy an evening out.

Peak audience = 82% under 45 and let's be frank those tested for the rise have been asymptomatic and carried on engaging in socialising and leisure.

The vaccine news from China and Trump reporting vaccine in as little 4 weeks is what is promoting the rally. Expect to see this carry forward, tomorrow.

Enough liquidity to see them through to Decebmer 2021 even with all cinemas closed.

24th Sep will be telling just how well they have negotiated leases and reduced cash burn.

Bond is going ahead for November 2020.

In case you have not noticed, trailers, media exposure including adverts have resumed. This isn't cheap.

MGM lost $50m delaying the movie. The last thing they would do is fork out more money on refreshing adverts and featurettes to only delay it again.

"According to The Hollywood Reporter, the movie is set to face a loss of between $30 million (£23 million) and $50 million as a result, after marketing included the likes of a $4.5 million (£3 million) advert at the Super Bowl." This was back in March when it deferred to November.

Studios need to play the movies as their catalogue will get too congested next year.

Twitter: https://twitter.com/MetroUK | Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MetroUK/

Source: https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/06/bond-studio-lose-50-million-delaying-no-time-die-release-12360827/

Huge news.

This isn’t about mass vaccination.

It’s about those who are at most risk.

Let’s be frank. The 1% at risk have caused the other 99% to ensure restrictions.

- health care workers
- elderly/health issues
- children
- young adults

As long as they tackle the top 2 the market will be pleased.

The news is tending and also Trump is stating he is going to approve a vaccine in as little as 4 weeks!

Source: Jack Brewster (@jbruce218) Tweeted: Trump says "we're going to have a vaccine in a matter of weeks" during an interview with @foxandfriends Tuesday

"It could be four weeks, it could be eight weeks," he adds. https://t.co/NhWxC96iz3

It made a $0.25 BILLION PROFIT so it wasn't struggling.

It also reduced net debt from $4.1 BILLION to $3.5 BILLION