Member Info for RS2002

Welcome and keep in mind, some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned, or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

I'll let you make up your own mind who they might be.

The title says it all that this is short term noise to spook investors.

Whilst 12% of Cineworld's estate is in the UK, the restrictions won't impact those going to cinema

Precisely. It has demonstrated integrity and as Neil says, not the first time it was done to analyse data more.

Interim results are still due next week.

We should make that 2p loss back, today and some.

California reopening is big news.

AstraZeneca may have put their phase 3 trial on hold whilst investing a SINGLE case, I expect the outcome to reveal it was unrelated given it has been administered to hundreds of thousands across a number of countries (Brazil, UAE etc).

Great news about the reopen of leisure and hospitality that can re-open in California. We know Cineworld has more Regal movie theaters there than anywhere else in the U.S. The state is the home of Hollywood so it’s a big milestone to see more of it open.

As for the fires, these are in Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus counties.

One could argue that indoor activities which are far safer, given the restrictions imposed and the sheer number of screenings (of Tenet) is a combination for some very impressive box office figures to come.

What are price predictions for the share price, following the great news more regions in California have reopened?

This will all contribute nicely to improved Tenet box office and if we can have NY open, ahead of Wonder Woman 84, that would be the icing on the cake.

Debt worries have been MITIGATED.

Debt may be Grade B on the Fitch scale but that is it - it's debt. Investors aren't trading debt securities so the grade B (like Rolls Royce btw) has a default risk of 4-6%, so a 94-96% positive outlook for their debt position.

Lenders are SO CONFIDENT in Cineworld they INCREASED their ND/EBITDA ratio from 5.5x to 9.0x.

Cineworld passed this test in 2019 at 3.4x SCORING 62% HIGHER than they needed to. No surprise that lenders were willing to relax this to 9.0x this year.

Cineworld will PASS their debt covenant test this December 2020 with ample room to spare.

The next test will be July 2021 at 5.5x and given the progress of a global vaccine and the V recovery that global markets are prediciting, Cineworld is projected to meet this covenant test and pass it too.

Fantastic news. We just need to see NY reopen and it would be safe to say virtually all key states have a Cineworld presence. The FOMO will be strong for these states as they will feel wronged for not seeing the open, much sooner.

This will drive up footfall to leisure activities. Cinemas already operate with staggered seating for groups above household limits. They will just update their software to ensure distance between groups above 6.

Sorry, Jawad. Your deramp is not successful.

Great news and very impressive how quick Cineworld is to react and get their cinemas open.

The time in California is 1445 so they are proposing to open more cinemas 2 hours 15 mins and we should expect to hear more news of this, tomorrow.

They are all fearful that

A) Covid deaths in the US are now approaching a 6 month low

B) Tech stocks are being dumped and investors are eyeing recovery plays like leisure and hospitality

C) Box office demand is demonstrating resilience. Cinema audiences are on average 80%, Under 45s. A demographic that isn’t at retirement age or content staying at home, they want to experience and enjoy life.

D) H1 results due 24 September: Like AMC we can expect a positive reception.

E) Peel Hunt brokers have rated Cineworld a BUY from a previous HOLD and upped their price target from 140p to 180p.

Great post from Indepth highlighting that Tenet domestic US has shot up from $20m to $27m.

I read that analysts cited $30m being a fantastic take, so to generate $27m over the Labor Day weekend is going to be received well.

No surprise they IMAX were quoted saying, Tenet made more in box office than Interstellar and Dunkirk pre-covid. This is also without NY and CA open. We can expect a huge surge one those states resume movie theaters.

Yep, and with US numbers at six month lows, the market will wake up and focus on stimulus and phase 3 trial data due next week

Admission at last:

Indepth: “ It is clear that the Half yearly results will be positive.“

Indeed they will. Investors are already aware that Cineworld have done a great job arranging liquidity and are ready for a full second lockdown, not that it will come, given the governments push for the economy to resume and importantly, the US are now approaching a SIX MONTH LOW on covid deaths.

Roll on, 24th September so we can have some hard figures that support just how resilient Cineworld are.

Don’t forget that Cineworld also use flexi manpower by way of zero hour contracts so they are very scalable.

I now appreciate that 70% of costs for Cineworld are variable. Mooky will serve a great update on 24 September and we can expect the share price to reflect it, accordingly.

What a great comment, Latpulldown.

I am going to repeat that.

On Lease Liabilities, rival a Cinema group AMC, with as bigger footprint in the US than Cineworld, report that they have reduced costs so well, landlords have deferred rent for Q2 and where required up to 10 years.

This is a game changer when you consider, Cineworld has 76% of its estate in the US.

Peel Hunt did stare the 24 September results would reflect positive on the share price and I can now see why.

"Our strong and long-term landlord relationships remain the foundation upon which we have successfully been able to defer or abate the vast majority of rent owed during the second quarter. Currently, we have over 900 distinct theatre leases and we have already reached agreements on approximately 75% of our leases to defer or abate rent. Each agreement is unique, but you should note that in the second quarter, the vast majority of the rent expense shown on the face of the income statement has been deferred with repayment terms mostly around 24 months, although, a number of agreements have repayment periods that extend through the remaining lease term, which in some cases is in excess of 10 years."

What is your rank position, Indepth? Is it higher or lower than Ivor's?

The UK makes up some 12% of Cineworld's, where as the US is made-up of 73%.
I'm more interested in the US data which so far says Tenet is selling like hot-cakes.
Anyway market is closed now. The investors have read what they need to and this has recovered a lot :-)

Can you explain why AMC is now trading at almost 100% of its pre-covid share price?

February 2020 = 667
March 2020 = 197 (70% drop in SP)
September 2020 = 655 (98% recovery)

They have shared their results and their debt situation is HIGHER than Cineworld.

Peel Hunt aren't fools, they quote that by the time the interims are due on 24 September, both trading and updated information from management should be positive for the share price.

In other words they acknowledge that Cineworld is OVERSOLD and due a big bounce back.

Peel Hunt noted that the Cineworld share price has fallen further than any other in its sector coverage, but said it should "bounce hard" once investors are reassured over demand.

Source: https://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations/cineworld-shares-set-for-hard-bounce-says-peel-hunt--7617294.html

Investors, sit back and expect to see a very positive recovery.

Box Office demand?

Cineworld higher as CEO highlights sold-out movie screenings following reopening.

Expect more news to come.

Source: https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/927809/cineworld-higher-as-ceo-highlights-sold-out-movie-screenings-following-reopening-927809.html