Member Info for RoxburyHouse

Yes the short increased again on Thursday (8th Dec) by 0.21% (718,000 shares) to 0.92% so total is now 3.1m shares.

Share price range was 52-55p so let’s say they ‘sold’ them at 54p

That’s the highest price since they opened the short which means they have to buy them back lower than this to make £.

Buying 3.1m shares though would drive the share price up so they would have to start buying back at a considerably lower price than it is today.

I think (hope) they have made a big mistake.

Been for a swim in the sea down at Roker today and it was F O OKIN Freezing and I’m still shaking now but I’m parked outside the Card Factory shop in Sunderland typing this and it’s really really busy.

Yes I do.

Including the increase of 0.11% a couple of days ago (8th Dec) my guesstimate is their average is 52p to 53p.

My (limited) understanding of shorts is that at the current share price of 54/55p they have a paper loss so they are going to do everything in their power to lower the share price.

Hence todays drop?

Hope this helps.

Posh Types?

PaperHands I was a Council kid. My Mam was a cleaner. Me and my 4 siblings had nowt and I mean nowt. Paper rounds went potato picking/winkle picking and sold them outside the working man’s club. Worked at the local Markets and had a hard but very rewarding childhood.

With the exception of maybe one I have got no idea (without googling them) what those words that Jackbogle typed mean but they don’t sound nice.

So let’s recap.

I went into a Card Factory shop at the end of the day and simply asked the staff who were all gathered around the till if they had heard of or used their website or App and they all said no.

In my book thats research.

If you want to apologise and be the bigger man, now is the time.

Jackbogle how long did it take you to log off and back on as Simes20 to recommend your own post!!!!

So funny. Ha ha

I’m just an honest Northerner Jackbogle who spends far too much time on these discussion boards!

What you see is what you get.

That’s the beauty of these discussion boards, you simply have to click on the persons name and you can read all their previous posts.

When you don’t lie you can’t trip yourself up.

Anybody notice this transaction from yesterday that slipped in at close of play today?

08-Dec-21 15:39:24 55.00 500,000 Unknown* 275.00k

Hard to say if it was a buy or sell but my guess purely based on the fact that the share price jumped higher yesterday that it was a buy?

Thoughts anybody?

Here’s another interesting thing I found out whilst chatting to the manager of the shop in Leeds whilst visiting my daughter.

Card Factory trialled the idea of Customers coming into the shop and designing and printing their own card it took a full time staff member to run it so it wasn’t cost effective.

She told me that it went well but the printer kept getting stuck! Lol.

You’d be surprised what you learn if you are just cheeky enough to ask.

The High St is changing though and if we fast forward say 5 years when most people here (including me) are no longer around, Card Factory will be very different.

Chill out?

It’s called Research PaperHands believe me I’m chilled.

It was 12 months ago ish, it was the end of the day and I was the only person in the shop so thought I would be cheeky and ask out of curiosity. None of the staff including the Manager had been on the website which was quite shocking to me at the time but ….. I have since ehhhm chilled.

Even now if you go in any of the shops they almost treat the on line as the enemy like a competitor.

It’s all going to change though because the amount of £ to be made on line cannot be ignored anymore and IMO there is no one more aware of this than the Bod.

About a year ago I went into my local Card Factory shop and asked the staff if any of them had been on their website or used the App and it was a resounding “No” from all 6 staff.

It really frustrated me at the time how detached Card Factory’s shops and staff are with their website (and still are) but the more research I did the more chilled I became.

Check out the Version History for both apps.

Card Factory
Version 1.0 12 months ago
Version 1.1 9.0 months ago. Bugfix and Improvements.

Moonpig
Version 7.172.0 3 days ago. Bugfix and Performance Improvements.
Version 7.171.0 1 week ago. Bugfix and Performsnce Improvements.
Version 7.170.0 2 weeks ago. Bugfix and performance updates.

Summary
Card Factory App launched 1 year ago and updated ONCE 9 months ago.
MoonPig App launched in July 2000 and updated WEEKLY since.

MoonPig is responsible for 90 percent of the online greeting card market in the United Kingdom.

I know this and so do you, so do you really think the BOD don’t?

The CF App is rubbish and difficult to use. If it had been updated a 1000 times since launch then that would be a problem BUT it’s only been updated once and for a reason.

The infrastructure is not yet in place to supply the orders that an improved App and Website would generate but …. It’s coming.

Believe me….It’s coming.

No! Not yet Jedclampit.

Let the bunch of clowns that run our Country implement ‘plan b’ for this new strain of the virus that is so bad that nobody knows they have got it first.

The MM will drop the price which will create yet another buying opportunity. Thank you very much.

Unless you are selling your shares it makes no difference anyway so let them crack on and as you say have their fun.

In the mean time here’s is some more food for thought…

216 days.
1019 shops.

We all know that the Card Factory is seasonal and there are different size shops in very different locations regarding footfall but for a bit of fun let’s say each shops averages
£100 a day profit.

220,104 days.
That’s £22Million TODAY accumulated profit.

Take this off the £70m along with the £8m that’s already been taken off leaves £40m and it’s only the 8th of December!

£1+ Share price early next year providing the shops stay open and no games will stop that tide once it turns. IMO.

Yes I have got Card, Saga and Wrks January dates mapped out in my calendar for sure.

Yes Banbury those figures look correct because the £12m (ball park) figure was pulled from a previous RNS ie

Trading Statement
RNS Number : 3970H 15 Nov 2018

“The £12.2 million increase since the FY19 interim results reflects the planned build-up of stock for the forthcoming Christmas trading period.”

I have also managed to convince myself that the Bod have paid more off the £70m from the 7 months they traded from April to November.

Feel so good about this share.

Got to be honest I wasn’t keen on that write up Beach!

Mainly because I don’t like the idea of any sort of dilution.

Google “Bonkers Bargain Card Factory” for IMO a better explanation.

Also It was confirmed in Sept that the £8m Government Grant had been paid towards the £70m which left £62m.

The 1st of 9 monthly payments (62/9) was paid Nov 30th as agreed and another one will be paid at the end of December.

So in January the £70m will be £48m and there will still be another 7 months before the deadline on July 31st 2022.

The shops remaining open will have the best case scenario when discussed by the Bod/Banks back in April.

IMO the Institutions never wanted to be diluted so this was always going to be a worst case scenario.

The Bod gambled that the shops would stay open which they have so now will be in a much stronger position in January to refinance the debt - if they want to.

Something else I found of interest earlier today was that Card typically spend £12m buying stock for Xmas.

Surely they must have a build up of unsold stock from previous years which has reduced this years spend?

This all just my opinion and everybody should do their own research because I could be wrong.

If you guys are swimming I’m scuba diving lol

I can’t tell you how excited I am about this share and I can’t be the only one.

Does anybody else feel the same or is it just me? Lol.

Back in April when all 1019 shops finally re-opened after the 3 lockdowns totalling 5months nobody knew what was going to happen next. What they did know though was that the next 8 months were crucial.

The Bod put together all sorts of worst case scenarios and remortgaged the house in case any of them came true. The share price then dropped to reflect on this precarious position.

The good news is that today is day 215 of 240 covering the 8 month crucial period from April.

215 days of all 1019 shops covering the whole of the UK fully open. Think about it.

Wow.

That’s something to celebrate and the share price of 52p is crazy!

If these shops stay open and there is every indication that they are going to then I’m expecting my investment here to double by early next year - April.

Hiya lag1

My wife is a card snob and when I first mentioned the Card Factory she said she knew about it but would never buy a card from there.

That was 9 months ago and nothing has changed, she still goes and pays twice the price elsewhere for what I would say is the same quality of Card.

So your question is a good one but how do they get ‘these people’ through the door?

I’m not sure that they can. I don’t send Cards and when I do I spend about 30 seconds choosing it but my wife spends ages and I mean ages.

The quality is there for sure but the variety isn’t and there is nothing a card snob likes better than receiving a card they have never seen before?

I think most people don’t give a toss (I know I don’t).

Card Factory concentrates on the masses but the people you are talking about addressing like to go to specialist shops and I think always will.

Back in April after 3 lockdowns the Card Factory’s Board of Directors sat round a table cap in hand with the bank.

The stores had been forcibly shut down by the Government for 5 of the previous 12 months and tight restrictions on parties and gatherings meant the banking covenants were about to be breached.

They were desperate.

Fast forward to January 2022 when once again there is a likelihood that they will be sitting around the same table with the bank but this time after 9 months of successful trading things will be very different.

This is a no brainer for me and (after Avacta) is going to turn into one of my best investments.

Hi simes I like having you onboard here because you actually come across (to me) as a nice person ok with an axe to grind with the Card Factory but that’s cool it keeps everything here balanced.

I actually agree with a lot of what you said above and it might turn out that you are right but for me that’s the excitement here - you could be wrong.

The stamps is a good point but the carrier bags must add up! It’s still ‘up selling’ and believe me it’s definitely working. “Wrapping paper sir” ha ha

If the shops stay open then that is good news but there is no denying the Upgrade to the existing IT system is a big risk but it needs to be done to unlock Cards on line potential which is MASSIVE.

Yes it was having problems before Covid but not major and mainly due to reduced footfall which they were addressing.

All my research is pulled from somewhere Banbury and I always normally provide links to back it up.

Check out the following to get you up-to speed.

Great to have you on board by the way.

An obvious one first:-
https://www.cardfactoryinvestors.com/what-we-do/strategy

Google “Bonkers Bargain Card Factory”
That’s a good read.

Check out the ‘Risks’ section in the following RNS:-

Annual Financial Report
RNS Number : 5394D
29 June 2021

Research Research Research.

Yes Banbury now you can see why I am ‘all in’ here!

The potential is staggering and here’s the best bit…

RNS Number : 4057B 10 June 2021

CEO Darcy Willson-Rymer said:-

“The preparations for our ERP implementation, on hold during the third lockdown, is now progressing well, with phase one now scheduled for October 2021. We expect this will further improve efficiency and replace multiple solutions, many of which are no longer supported and unreliable.”

This announcement was back in June and by all accounts is going well so we are due an update.

Along with news on any of the following:-

- New/existing UK Retail Partnerships.
- Growth in international markets through partnership arrangements.
- News on its e-commerce multichannel propositions including click and collect.
- Extended franchise agreements.

This is such an exciting share to be in at the moment and as each day passes gets more so.

3 shops? Jesus I own half of the factory! Ha ha

If there are no further lockdowns in the next 4 weeks then the Card Factory has traded the most profitable 3 months of the year and no shorter in their right mind will leave it open before the preliminary results in January.

To close it they have to buy back 0.74% of the Company which is just over 2.5m shares.

I reckon their average is around 53p so they need to drive the share price considerably below this to make £.

I’ve never shorted a Company in my life and never would on principle and would be interested in any body else take on this?

In the mean time I will doff my hat to Lombard Odier for creating this buying opportunity and have a bit of fun trading a very small part of my holding.

All IMO of course.

Ha ha Thanks everybody and keep those shop reports coming in!

Say where you are and let’s see how much of the UK we can cover. Lol

I’m heading off down to Roker now for a very cold swim in the sea but might just manage 20mins outside the Sunderland branch enroute. Ha ha