Member Info for RoxburyHouse

Hiya Billybob I’ve been wrong more times than I have been right when trying to second guess anything in this game so please everyone don’t ever take any of my ramblings as gospel.

I don’t so much think that they will keep the existing debt package in place forever, I just can’t see them rushing to refinance it. That’s only because I’m guessing there are penalties in place to discourage them from doing this?

As it stands dividends will not be paid until BOTH the Term Loan and CLBILS facilities have been paid off in full ie £125m NOT the whole debt.

Early 2023 is my guess?

Hi Lokiloo once again thank you for sharing this with us but as a shareholder what you are telling us is exactly what we want to hear - Seriously.

Firstly the shop is so busy that the staff don’t have time to restock the shelves. That’s good news.

Secondly the management are so cost aware that the extra hours needed for the busy weekend will be taken off during the quieter times during the week letting staff go home early rather than paying them more £ increasing the wage bill.

I know this sounds harsh but times are tough for businesses atm and if the Card Factory coughed up these extra wages then the business won’t make any money and not be viable. Your family member would therefore not have a job.

I don’t know if you have read any of my previous posts but I’m a serial Card Factory ‘secret shopper’ lol and I do witness what you are saying especially in the busier shops but I also see staff swinging on and off the tills in between Customer surges.

It sounds like the shop your family member works in just isn’t very well managed.

Thanks for taking time out to post Lokiloo especially since your not invested.

You come across as a decent person with no agenda (unlike you simes!) so please keep posting warts n all.

Obviously those figures can’t be verified and they seem a little high but it makes you realise the kind of cash flow the card factory deals with every day.

When the average takings per day is multiplied by over 1000 shops then each £1000 is over £1million EVERY day.

This is takings of course and not profit but it also makes you realise why the shops being closed down got us into this mess and accrued so much debt.

This was a strong viable business before Covid and yes it has got problems like any business this size but providing there are no more lockdowns it will once again prosper. IMO.

Oh that’s a tricky question stevebt!

Since Covid I have been ‘all in’ with Avacta, Aston Martin, AA, Saga and now Card!

I nine bagged Avacta, made a bit with AML, broke even with AA and Saga so so far so good!

It’s completely the wrong thing to do and I wouldn’t recommend it but do I regret it? Absolutely not!

That’s the only gamble here and so far so good:-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59378849

Before Covid the Free cash flow averaged £84m per annum over each of the financial years ending January 2020, with £88m generated in the last of these.

The largest part of this is generated at this time of the year - Xmas.

Onwards and Upwards.

Hello Lokiloo and welcome.

Obviously a disgruntled ex employee and on the basis that nothing you say here affects the share price then please feel free to vent your anger and frustrations here about your experience at working at the Card Factory because we really don’t care!

Sorry, only being honest.

Tbh you sound like you have just left school and are work shy.

How many staff would you have per shop dare I ask?

Thanks for the info Ehtefaznaser and I hope your wife is feeling better.

The shops are raking in the £ and that’s a fact.

One week tomorrow (30th Nov) is the first agreed payment date towards the infamous £70m part of the debt.

We know the Government Grant of £8m has already been paid off this so that leaves £62m.

My guess is that a large part of the profit from the last 7 months takings has also already been taken off this £62m.

Regardless there are now a further 8 months to pay off the remaining balance.

Every day The Card Factory shops are open the chances of a cash raise (to pay off debt) diminishes.

Once all of this is announced (hopefully in January) then we are all sitting on a rocket my friends.

All IMO of course.

Morning Arsenalles/selecta I came over here with you guys and JTM and we all sat patiently waiting for it to be unsuspended (is that a word?).

He’d got in beforehand which made it even more exciting and I kept thinking I’d missed the bought so never actually got in.

No longer in AML selecta I’ve only got eyes for CARD and spend most of my time in car parks and shopping centres and ‘secret shopping’ lol.

Bigsaddo - the dog! That made me laugh out loud.

Everyone really does have to tell someone though. I suppose if you die and haven’t then the s/o to pay your platform would cease and that might raise a flag but these companies only look after themselves snd it wouldn’t surprise me that they would just start selling your shares to fund it?

Funny when I told the wife though because she was quite shocked at how much I have invested and said she would ‘just sell everything’ and I was saying noooooooooo ha ha

I can’t even handle the thought of my shares being sold when I’m dead so I have got no chance of selling them when I’m alive! Lol

Laid in bed this morning thinking about how addictive this share dealing is.

It’s the first thing I think about when I wake up and the last thing when I go to bed. Im not even invested in EUA and still read all the messages and I don’t think I’m alone.

Has anybody ever wondered how this is all going to end?

I’m beginning to think the only way out of all of this is to lose everything!

Failing that then my guess is the same was as JTMacs. Open ended. People wondering where you have gone in these discussion groups (if you are lucky) but worse what about your shares?

Does anybody close to you even know they exist and have account details passwords etc etc in case of an emergency?

This is all a bit pointless if they don’t.

I wonder how many ‘ghost’ dealing accounts exist?

My guess is a lot and some with serious £ in them?

Because of JTMacs I sat down with my wife yesterday and talked her through the whole process - just saying.

Yes PP it was my post and the story originated from a chat I had with him over on the AML board what seems now a lifetime ago and before he came here.

We got talking about bucket lists and his dream of buying his own boat and sailing around the world in it. JTM was a bit of a loner and he wanted to do it by himself. Not like trying to set a record or anything just taking his time.

He was absolutely convinced EUA was ‘the one’ that was going to allow him to do that.

Ironically I remember telling him about my analogy and it went something like this:-

Get yourself a tape measure and pull it out to 70 inches.
Look at the start, that is when you are born.
Look at the number 70, that is ‘3 scores and 10’ and what is your life expectancy.

Then put your finger on the number for your age now.
Look at how much has gone and how much is left.

I remember us both laughing at it because it is scary.
He passed at 68 wow neither of us expected that.

I kind of remembering us both agreeing that since we were both in our 60’s I should change it to ‘3 scores and 20’.

So so sorry to hear this news about the passing of JTMac.

Like me and my family he was born in South Bank Middlesbrough but he moved down South not long after and it’s so nice to see he came home because he always said he was a Northerner at heart.

Like many here I knew him from the AML board and remember him excitedly reporting that he had literally just bought into EUA before it was suspended.

He couldn’t believe how lucky he was and reckoned this was ‘the one’ that was going to finally allow him as an ex sailor to live his dream of retiring and sailing around the world.

So sad to see it never happened.

Life is so short guys be nice to each other.

RIP JTM.

Draft 1
Card Factory had a tough close to a pretty awful 2020 and, as anticipated, the year end lockdown meant that banking covenants were breached.

As a result a new £225m financial package with the bank was negotiated with fees of up to £5m payable if pre-payments totalling £70m weren’t made on agreed dates between Nov 30th 2021 and July 2022.

The facilities were structured to incentivise an early reduction of the overall debt without penalty.

So in a nutshell the BOD would have 15 months (May 2021 to July 31st 2022) with all their shops fully open to repay £70m and 7 months before the first payment on Nov 30th 2021.

It must be remembered that before Covid the Free cash flow averaged £84m per annum over each of the financial years ending January 2020, with £88m generated in the last of these.

They could have opted for a capital raise (and may still do) but as far as we can see at the moment, they are attempting to pay it off without one and have already started ie

Trading update and refinancing.
RNS : 1403N 28 Sept 2021

“In accordance with the terms of the agreement, the Group has made repayments of £4.8m against the £75m Term Loan and £3.2m against the CLBILS in recognition of £8.0m Government grants...”

So as of Sept 2021 the outstanding debt was £62m and the first official payment is in 2 weeks time (my birthday!) Nov 30th.

Everything hinges on the shops remaining open and good Xmas sales and so far so good.

Please let me know if there is anything you disagree with or would like changed or added because I do not want to mislead anybody.

Thank you.

Card shares in issue 342m.

0.5% of this is 1.7m
0.6% is just over 2m

So they have 2 million shares to ‘short with’ and they need it below 54p to make £.

Thanks Guys.

I’m torn now between my new love Card and my ex girlfriend Saga.

I have complete faith in both and really confident this time next year they will both be in a very happy place regardless with or without me.

Always thought RDH would take this private but he has made his move earlier than I anticipated and created for me a dilemma.

Ex girlfriend or new girlfriend?

The new girlfriend got to be honest hasn’t been great since we got together but I really do love her. Got rid of the ex (at a really good price) and since we have been apart she hasn’t been doing so well either.

The temptation to have a finger in each pie yesterday was just too great but I’m laid in bed this morning wondering what on earth I have done. Ha ha

Don’t know much about shorts but I’m sure someone here can explain better?

So 0.5% short was opened in the 8th Nov when the share price was 54.6p ish.

It was increased by 0.1% to 0.6% on the 12th Nov when the share price was 54p.

To make £ they have to get it below this price and then buy back the shares they ‘sold’.

That’s about all I know.

Somebody mentioned that they have 1.8Million shares to play with?

Anybody care to expand on this?

Hi Rupans just when you thought things couldn’t get any worse I’m back mate - sorry ha ha

Set a sneaky buy at £2.875 towards the close of play and it completed!

I was ‘all in’ with the AA last year when that was taken private and it was a nightmare so hopefully it won’t happen here but regardless this share price is an amazing opportunity for everyone with funds to either lower their average or get in at the same price as RDH.

All IMO of course no investment advice intended.

Stevebt - honestly mate if I could pass any advice down it would be to NEVER hit yourself with that stick.

Keep it real.

This is the reality of what would have happened yesterday if you had tried.

First of all absolute best case you would have sold them for 57 something pence - if you were lucky!

Best case buying back would 54 something pence - again if you are lucky!

So absolute best case is 3p difference minus costs so you would need a lot of shares to make it worthwhile and if you are buying or selling in large numbers you get an even worse price.

In addition you can almost guarantee if you tried then the share price will jump higher just after you sold!

Honestly mate it’s a nightmare.

n1 Somebody (Lombard) with 1.8Million shares at their disposal has just opened (and then increased) a short on the Card Factory at 54.something pence.

They are going to do everything in their power to hold it and hopefully reduce so they can make £.

Usernames. Card has significantly more debt than £70m that is just the figure that must paid back before July 31st 2022 of which they have already started paying back. I’m no expert but I’m guessing whatever interest rate decided back in April when the deal was done was fixed?

Hi everybody.

I would like to create a list of reasons why new investors should consider investing in Card Factory and need your help.

I want it to be a group effort and based on facts only not opinions.

A snapshot of where we are now and updated as we all progress through this investment journey.

If you could use this thread only please (note jedclampit!) so we keep it contained please!

I will then regularly repost the finished product so newbies don’t have to trawl through all the past RNS’s.

Examples are as follows:-

Nov 30th 2021 First official payment date of the £70m debt.
July 31st 2022 Final payment date of the £70m debt.

Etc etc

I will copy the exact wording from the relevant RNS so it will read better than the above but you have got the idea and please contribute if you can.

Cheers

Well done Banbury likewise I swung 10k from here into Wrks on Friday which I sold yesterday so have 11k waiting to go back in here.

Just waiting for that shorter to drop the price a bit before I commit.

It’s just a bit of fun and a great way to increase your holdings for the same £.

It’s also a great way to reduce your holdings though so be careful!