Member Info for RoxburyHouse

Let the MMs Algos or whoever it is who is manipulating this share have their fun because unless you need to sell in the next 6 to 9 months it really doesn’t matter.

When the tide turns it will turn quickly and strong and none of their games will stop it.

So sorry to hear about your wife Ehtefaznaser, hope she gets better soon. Makes you realise how unimportant this all is when you lose your health.

Thank you for taking time out to answer my questions it is very much appreciated.

Banbury - come over to the dark side mate you would fit in great over here with your financial/accounting knowledge.

Yeah I can vouch for jedclampit he comes across as a nice person. I really don’t think there is any malice or motive in what he posts he just batters it in without a filter. ha ha

Off Topic : Banbury please go and read my most recent post on the Card discussion board!

Guys sorry for the repetition but I think this post should be on its own thread so it is not lost.

I think it’s really important and worthy of further discussion by the whole group.

So back in April the BOD renegotiated a new financial package with the bank. Part of this agreement was to pay back £70m with tight deadlines and strict penalties.

Trading update and refinancing.
RNS Number : 3663Z
21 May 2021

“The facilities are structured to incentivise an early reduction of paying off £70m….

Prepayments shall discharge the Term Loan facility and the CLBILS facilities pro-rata. “

RNS Number : 1403N
Card Factory PLC
28 September 2021

“In accordance with the terms of the agreement, the Group has made repayments of £4.8m against the £75m Term Loan and £3.2m against the CLBILS in recognition of £8.0m Government grants received in respect of non-essential retail closure periods.”

So £8Million has already been paid off the £70m

Ie “Prepayments shall discharge the Term Loan facility and the CLBILS facilities pro-rata. “ from above.

So the BOD arranged this tight repayment schedule with full knowledge that they were being awarded an £8m Government Grant and also knowing they had 16 months before the final payment would need to be made and the £70m is now £62m!

Yes 12 months from July 21 and 9 months from now but best part of 16 months when they made the agreement to raise £70m.

When they shook this deal they will have known about the £8Million grant and also known that they would have 16 months of the shops being fully open to raise the balance of £62m.

Everything is now making sense.

“ So now it’s 16 months to pay off £62m.”

Sorry ForeverNever that’s misleading, I didn’t mean now, as in, from now, today, I meant from when the Bod originally agreed to pay back £70m. They would have agreed the dates in April so knew they would have 16 months to raise the £.

Hope that makes sense.

ForeverNever it is correct 100%.

This was hidden in plain site and absolutely brilliant news.

It’s 16 months because the shops fully re-opened in April 2021 so all takings from that date will be contributing towards this debt so they do not pay a penalty.

Unless I’ve got my knickers in a twist this is breaking news and now makes sense why they “reserved the right to pay off this debt early” and put the whole £8Million grant towards it.

I was incorrectly thinking that they had to pay off the £75m Term Loan but this is not the case. They “simply” have to prove that they can raise and pay off £70m off the Term Loan and Covid loan (CLBILS) pro-rata.

The penny dropped when I questioned why they paid £4.8m off the Term loan and £3.2m off the CLBILS.

Of course they had to do those amounts because it was pro- rata!

Ie 4.8/75 = 3.2/50 !!

Hey maybe everybody else had already realised this and it’s just me being thick but for me that’s excellent news!!!!

Totally agree but here is the best bit..

Trading update and refinancing.
RNS Number : 3663Z
21 May 2021

“The facilities are structured to incentivise an early reduction of paying off £70m….

Prepayments shall discharge the Term Loan facility and the CLBILS facilities pro-rata. “

RNS Number : 1403N
Card Factory PLC
28 September 2021

“In accordance with the terms of the agreement, the Group has made repayments of £4.8m against the £75m Term Loan and £3.2m against the CLBILS in recognition of £8.0m Government grants received in respect of non-essential retail closure periods.”

So £8Million has already been paid off the £70m

Ie “Prepayments shall discharge the Term Loan facility and the CLBILS facilities pro-rata. “ from above.

So the £70m is now £62m.

It’s took me ages to work that out and it’s what I guessed all along. Ok it’s came from a grant but who cares it’s still taken off the £70m and more importantly paid earlier than 30th of November.

So now it’s 16 months to pay off £62m.

In Feb/March the Bod and the Bankers sat round a table and agreed that £70m was a realistic figure that could be paid back if there were no more lockdowns and the business was still viable.

Shops opened fully in April 2021 and the first payment was agreed Nov 30th 2021 so 8 months. Followed by another 8 monthly payments until the final payment on July 31st 2022.

So 16 month to pay back £70m so just over £4m per month.

If they don’t manage this then there will be a £5m penalty.

Ok let’s think about this.

Personally I think they will raise the cash from sales but if they don’t manage the full amount they will be close so fast forward to the last couple of due payments in May/Jun/July 2022 when they could be £10/£15/£20m short then assuming we are in much better shape they will “find it”.

Google the following “bonkers bargain Card Factory review” and read the updated report and if that doesn’t give you a warm feeling nothing will.

I’m not aware of any major shareholder dumping shares?

In fact quite the opposite.

RNS Number : 9494J
26 August 2021

Artemis Fund Managers increase the number of shares to over 34 million.

It’s testament to Card Factory that none of the institutions have reduced their holding since the Covid drop.

Great posts guys keep them coming - hey we are almost getting a debate going here! Lol

Copied this (see below) from the latest results RNS which says the store portfolio “increased" to 1019?

If it was 1022 stores in 2020 then it must have reduced to 1016 at some point?

“We have continued our estate review and the evolution of our store portfolio, with a focus on higher footfall locations and store profitability. The net number of stores increased by three stores during the period to 1,019.”

Hodgy2108 have you made those figures up? If you come clean now we will forgive you!!

Some more food…

The business is of course seasonal and some shops are twice the size of others so this is rough but ..

1019 shops open every day making a minimum atm (I hope) of £100 day profit each is:-

365x1019x100 = £37.2m

The last set of results preCovid they made just under £200 on average per shop per day.

The remaining £70m could be cleared using profits if each shop could make £70m/365/1000= £191

Good posts Beach I knew you would be a good addition to this discussion group. We need to get Banbury over here also.

Since this is the food for thought thread here is some more to try and digest:-

Hodgy2108 Aunt works in one of the smaller shops and I have copied bits of his posts below:-

“local shop my aunty works in north yorkshire trading on saturday was £9256.37 wednesday was 4,011.24 not sure rest of week and not sure how much is profit.

As in a earlier post about takings in my aunts shop she said that in august the shop sold £97,245.03 worth of goods in sept it was a little bit more @£119,432.45 for the month”

Any thoughts anyone?

Hi rupans nothing to go through again mate there really isn’t it’s just simple maths.

When the offer of 33p was made there was no “cash” so that number is fixed.

The number of shares at the time is also a fixed number and not open to interpretation.

So the offer at the time was per share so if we multiply that by the number of shares that is £370m FACT.

All of this was before the £140m cash.

Yeah the point I was trying to make (but obviously not very well!) was that the smaller CF shops clearly don’t need a lot of custom to break even do they? They can’t do. The mark up on cards must be astronomical 80? 90%? It has to be.

This shop is quiet and in not what I would say a good spot but must be at the very least breaking even otherwise it would be closed.

I have 8 shops on my radar atm (ha ha how ridiculous is that!) and this is the quietest one. The others are all busy and the one in the Galleries in Washington I reckon will clear the £70m debt on its own! Well that is if it ever gets the helium bottles refilled ffs.

The rejected PE offer of 33p valued the Company at £370m which at today’s share price is £2.65.

Ie
Shares BEFORE Dilution/Consolidation. 1,122,003,328 so x 33p = £370m.

Divide this by the number of shares now (139,594,769) which is £2.65

I just can’t see us going back there though. Surely not?

It was a ridiculous offer at the time and Saga are now in a much stronger position.

Drove past the Birtley branch of the Card Factory today and it was very quiet (as usual) so I parked up and when empty interrogated the 2 friendly shop assistants.

In a nutshell they told me that it’s not always this quiet and they do hit their “targets”. (Could be lying though?)

This is one of the smaller shops but it did make me wonder how much a shop has to make to break even?

One of the assistants had been there for 4 years (so before Covid) and informed me that it’s no quieter now than what it was then.

It’s directly below Morrison’s and not in a good spot and I was wondering why these shops arnt just closed down?

After 4 years+ this shop can’t be tied in to a lease so it must be cost effective to keep them open?

Ehtefaznaser thoughts please?

About 20 minutes after I or jedclampit sells up!

Shoe Factory? Ha ha