Member Info for RoxburyHouse

is currently 1.2% x 342m shares which is 4.1m shares @ average (best case) 55p.

Share price as I type this is 59.5p and the fact they didn’t increase the short last Friday and today? speaks volumes.

There only hope is that omicron starts killing people and lockdowns come back. How sad is that?

Buying over 4million shares will create a ‘short squeeze’ driving the price higher.

What advice would you give to Lombard Simes20?

£5 share price or when Banbury’s jelly bean jar is empty

I hope it’s not the latter because me and JoeSoap won’t be around anymore. Ha ha

The average share price for the 12 months preceding Covid was just short of £1.80 and 50% is 90p so thank you Simes20 that is the first positive thing you have said about the Card Factory in all of your 36 posts!

Just had a little giggle to myself thinking how bad Simes20 &Jackbogle are at deramping CARD.

Lombard must be so disappointed with them.

Paddyboy was brilliant.

Thank you CVB123 i like to share my research and it’s nice to know it is appreciated.

At first sight the failure to attract interest (if true) didn’t look good but if you read the link IMO they are simply exploring all options:-

“U.K. greetings card retailer Card Factory has failed to attract sufficient interest from market participants after the company explored issuing a bond to refinance £225 million of banking facilities”

https://reorg.com/card-factory-refinancing/

Great post CVB123 and I totally agree that Mr Market is far too pessimistic towards CARD but everyone here can use that to our advantage because it’s all going to change soon.

RNS Number : 1977X 30 April 2021
“The Company has agreed headline terms for refinancing of the Group with its current syndicate of commercial lending banks. ”

RNS Number : 3663Z 21 May 2021
“Subject to prevailing market conditions and upon taking independent advice, the Company intends to use its best efforts to raise net equity proceeds of £70m to facilitate these prepayments. The Company is also permitted, under the terms of the facilities, to prepay £70m using funding from other subordinated sources.”

Share price peaked at 95p after the release of the first RNS above when all 1000+ shops opened and then dropped to low 60’s after the second one.

So back in May 2021 and fresh out of Lockdown the share price dropped for 3 reasons:-

1 Possibility of Shares being Diluted.
2 More possible lockdowns.
3 £70m debt repayment with tight timescales.

Fast forward to now Dec 2021.

Predicted Lockdowns didn’t happen. (Ok still could but not in the busiest Xmas period).

8 full months of trading has meant that the £70m part of the debt has reduced significantly. (£48m after the second payment is made next week).

As a result of the above the Bod are now in a much stronger position to refinance (if they want to) but go back and read the first RNS above and note “headline terms” - in my book that means they got a good deal so why would they?

There’s only one reason and that’s because a condition was added stating that no dividends will be paid until BOTH the Term Loan and CLBILS facilities have been paid off in full ie £125m.

So if they refinance in January they will be able to reinstate the dividend and this will re rate.

Whichever way you look at it there is no denying that the Card Factory is in much better shape now than it was 9 months ago when the share price was 90p+.

I was a little bit tipsy last night (****ed) so can’t remember the exact numbers but did noticed the sells outnumbered the buys yesterday by over 1 million shares.

That had to be Lombard and if so then we will get notified today.

So hope it was.

Still hasn’t been confirmed that Lombard increased their short yesterday but if they have then they are in trouble because it has had little effect on the share price.

Don’t know about it being a good move yet and time will tell but either way I’m happy. I would love to see Lombard burnt with their short so great if the price rises from here but if it dips temporarily back to the early 50’s then I will buy my shares back thus increasing my holding for the same £.

This is not for the feint hearted or something I would recommend. Everyone here has got their own plan and this is simply mine and usually it doesn’t work!

If Lombard don’t increase their short today at 58p then I will be amazed and IMO sends out a clear signal that they are questioning their actions of shorting CARD.

My average is somewhere between 60 and 61p Smorty but… as you know, I have got the patience of gnat and have been ‘meddling’.

It came to my attention that the WRKS and CARD often swing 5p above and below each other so I have swung 50 grand this week from here into there.

I think Lombard will increase their short to get this below their average and I’m hoping WRKS recovers at the same time so I can then plough it all back in here.

This is FUN!

Still got a massive holding here so basically I have hedged my bet with the WRKS which is also IMO an undervalued COVID stock which I visit regularly on my secret shopper travels.

Oops!

Thanks for that VeliBaba yes that makes more sense.

I typed that into my calculator a couple of times because I thought it seemed a lot.

So it 4,100,000 x 3.5p/100 = £143,500.

So each +/-1p = +/- £41,000 NOT £410,000

Keep checking my calculations guys.

Thank you.

Good idea Beach.

Lombards total short is 4.1m shares @ roughly 55p.

So every +/-1p is +/-£410,000.

As I type this the share price is 58.5p so that’s a paper loss of £1.45Million.

My senses are heightened.

I can smell burning and a fat lady singing.

The tide is turning…..

Thanks for that Billybob yes that makes sense and I agree.

Apologies if have misled anybody with the cash flow statement because as Billybob says there are costs to come off that.

The £70m figure is really important though and yes Beach I do think that they will pay a big chunk off with the Nov/Dec takings. I think we are all going to be pleasantly surprised in January and my gut tells me the outstanding £70m will be a lot less than my £48m estimate.

Having a further 7 months of trading before they have to clear this though I just can’t see them refinancing but if they do then that’s fine by me.

The main restriction is that they are not allowed to pay a dividend until the total £125m has been cleared (so another £55m) but are the Bod in any hurry to reinstate these?

Remember that the share price dropped from 90p because of the possibility of dilution and that now looks less likely as each day passes.

Thought this was worth another airing:-

Card Factory had a tough close to a pretty awful 2020 and, as anticipated, the year end lockdown meant that banking covenants were breached.

As a result a new £225m financial package with the bank was negotiated with fees of up to £5m payable if pre-payments totalling £70m weren’t made on agreed dates between Nov 30th 2021 and July 2022.

The facilities were structured to incentivise an early reduction of the overall debt.

So in a nutshell the BOD would have 15 months (May 2021 to July 31st 2022) with all their shops fully open to repay £70m and 7 months before the first payment on Nov 30th 2021.

It must be remembered that before Covid the Free cash flow averaged £84m per annum over each of the financial years ending January 2020, with £88m generated in the last of these.

They could have opted for a capital raise (and may still do) but as far as we can see at the moment, they are attempting to pay it off without one and have already started ie

Trading update and refinancing.
RNS : 1403N 28 Sept 2021

“In accordance with the terms of the agreement, the Group has made repayments of £4.8m against the £75m Term Loan and £3.2m against the CLBILS in recognition of £8.0m Government grants...”

So as of Sept 2021 the outstanding part of the debt that was agreed to be paid before July 31st 2022 was £62m.

The first of the 9 official payments was Nov 30th 2021 and the next one is next Friday (31st Dec).

62/9 = £6.9m per month.

So In January the outstanding part of the debt will be just over £48m.

Everything still hinges on the shops remaining open and good Xmas sales and so far so good.

Hope this helps.

Ladder? Ha ha PADDLE!

If we keep tabs of this short then we can use it to our advantage.

If anyone disagrees with my figures then please let me know.

Ok so as predicted earlier in this thread Lombard increased their short yesterday when the share price was 56p by another .07% taking it to 1.2%.

So 240,000@56p means their average must be now close to 55p.

So their total short is 4.1m shares @55p.

I’m typing this with the news on in the background informing us surprise surprise that omicron is milder than expected.

I’m no expert but Lombard must be getting worried now because without a RI they are up **** creek without a ladder.

The share price today after opening at 57p rose to 58p and has now settled around 57p so last nights short of 240,000 shares has had no effect whatsoever.

Their choice now is to either increase it substantially or admit defeat and start buying.

All IMO of course.

Ps just to be transparent here I’m long and strong with (for me) a substantial holding but I sold a few last week and would like to buy them back so c’mon Lombard get this share price down!! Ha ha

Lombard are not going down without a fight stevebt so if I am reading your message correctly you sold @ 58ish?

I am not giving financial advice but if I did I would say don’t get greedy and it can work out but invariably if you keep doing it you will get caught out so be careful.

Lombards average is 54ish so they currently have a paper loss of 3.8Million x 3p which is £114,000?

They are not going to sit down and take that and potentially a lot more without a fight so it ain’t over yet.

Thank you Ginner, really appreciate feedback like this.

Lombard are you listening? Ha ha

Hi PRN I’m good at the strong but poor at the long. I’m gambling £ that I can genuinely afford to lose so not easily swayed.

The Card Factory is a Covid value share IMO and will recover back to £1+ as soon as the world goes back to normal. (Which it will).

There isn’t and never was going to be a RI and Lombard haven’t done their research.

Beachbum posted a link last week and the guy there also really laboured the high possibility of dilution.

He was also wrong and the guy in the speedos is going to be proved right. Ha ha

£1 early next year for sure.

Commonsense not yet but IMO they are going to be.

PRN has call it correctly (again IMO) in that they have co c k Ed up. We have men in the ground and there is absolutely no doubting that the Card Factory has done a roaring trade in the last couple of weeks but more importantly have been fully open since April.

I AM LOVING IT.

Yesterday (Monday) Lombard increased their short by 0.06% (205,000 shares) at an absolute best of 54p.

I will be amazed if they haven’t increased it again today also (@56p) We will find out tomorrow.

Their total short is now 1.13% which is 3.8 Million shares @ average 54p.

This equates to over £2 Million.

Tomorrow is going to very interesting indeed especially if they try close it.

Yes Smorty I’m clearly getting my knickers in a twist ha ha

So buys £600,000 ish vs sells £1.2 million and a big chunk in the last hour or so.

Lombard have clearly increased their short this afternoon in a desperate attempt to stop the share price running too much above their 53/54p average.

I’m guessing the share price will open lower tomorrow because of this and if it doesn’t then they will no doubt increase it again if it doesn’t.

I’m loving it because like a few other people here I’m having ‘dabble’.