Member Info for RoxburyHouse

Lombards short is currently sitting at
1.3% at an average (IMO) of 57.5p which means they would have to BUY 4.5m shares to close.

Citadels short is currently sitting at 0.56% at an average of ? which means they would have to BUY 1.9m shares to close.

Apart from the obvious risks of further lockdowns I’m guessing that the main reason that both Lombard and Citadel opened their short is because they think that there is going to be a share dilution?

If CARD announce that they are either going to refinance the debt or pay it off in the agreed timescales then this share price will jump significantly IMO.

Interesting.

So on Monday Citadel increased their short by 0.08%

Lse above state 0.03% but that’s incorrect - see link in earlier post.

So they “sold” 273,600 shares which means their total short is now reportable and sitting at 0.56%.

The sells have massively outnumbered the buys in the last 2 days (if you can trust the Lse figures) and the share price has gone up?

I don’t think I’m ever going to understand this game but it is important to remember this is exactly that, a game and we are the players.

Interesting post lsetown and Thankyou for taking the time to post.

This is all a big learning curve for most people here (including me) and I’m not really sure what you mean?

Every time a SHORT (above 0.5%) is increased (SELL) or reduced (BUY) then it must be declared?

On the day of the Trading Statement (Jan 13th) Citadel cleverly appeared with their 0.53% SHORT. Because they were previously below the 0.5% threshold we have no way of knowing whether it was an existing SHORT that was increased or new.

Lombard surprisingly neither increased or reduced theirs on the day of the Trading Statement but did INCREASE it by 0.03% on Jan 24th at the same time Citadel decided to REDUCE theirs to below the 0.5% threshold?

All very confusing tbh and difficult to work out what they are up to but strangely reassuring that they are just as much in the dark as us.

IMO Citadel made their decision after reading the (badly written) report and it was a short term punt?

Goodness only knows what Lombard are up to?

This is all to the best of my knowledge so if you see anything you don’t agree with then please let me know.

As most here will already be aware, Lombard still have a 1.3% Short open on Card at an average (IMO) of 57.5p

So, they have SOLD 4.5m shares @ 57.5p average and to make £ they will need to drive the share price below this and BUY them back.

This can be seen if you click above on “more Card Information” then “Card Short Positions”.

For more detailed information use the following link.

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BLY2F708/

(Thank you G- MONEY1).

Most here will also be aware that Citadel Advisors have recently reduced their SHORT from 0.53% to 0.48% and because this is below the 0.5% reportable level it is no longer tracked.

This does not however mean it has been closed, it just means that it has been reduced.

IMO Citadel still have their SHORT open at 0.48% which equates to 1.6m shares. I have no idea what their average is.

In summary and again IMO Lombard and Citadel have a total of over 6m shares that they have to BUY back.

Personally I’m loving this and have strengthened my position here again today by buying more shares hence reducing my average.

This isn’t a ramp it’s purely my opinion but I see a short squeeze coming and soon.

Guys I know most have seen this summary before but I keep putting it out there as a reminder.

Card Factory had a tough close to a pretty awful 2020 and, as anticipated, the year end lockdown meant that banking covenants were breached.

As a result a new £225m financial package with the bank was negotiated with fees of up to £5m payable if pre-payments totalling £70m weren’t made on agreed dates between Nov 30th 2021 and July 2022.

The facilities were structured to incentivise an early reduction of the overall debt.

So in a nutshell the BOD would have 15 months (May 2021 to July 31st 2022) with all their shops fully open to repay £70m and 7 months before the first payment on Nov 30th 2021.

It must be remembered that before Covid the Free cash flow averaged £84m per annum over each of the financial years ending January 2020, with £88m generated in the last of these.

31st December 2019 (Before Covid)
Revenue £424.5m
Net Debt £119m
31st January 2020
Revenue £451m

31st December 2020
Revenue ??????
Net debt £87.0m (or £90m?)
Lease liabilities of £148.0m
31st January 2021
Revenue £285.1m

31st December 2021
Revenue £337.3m
Net debt £60m
Lease liabilities £130.1m
31st January 2022
Revenue £337.3m + ?

They could have opted for a capital raise (and may still do) but as far as we can see at the moment, they are attempting to pay it off without one and have already started ie

Trading update and refinancing.
RNS : 1403N 28 Sept 2021

“In accordance with the terms of the agreement, the Group has made repayments of £4.8m against the £75m Term Loan and £3.2m against the CLBILS in recognition of £8.0m Government grants...”

So as of Sept 2021 the outstanding part of the debt that was agreed to be paid before July 31st 2022 was £62m.

The first of the 9 official payments was Nov 30th 2021 and the second one was on Friday (31st Dec).

62/9 = £6.9m per month.

The third is paid today 31st January 2022.

So the outstanding part of the debt is now should be just over £41m.

Based on everything Banbury has been telling us over the last couple of months I’m saying £3:48

His reputation is on the line here ha ha

Be honest simes you haven’t taken a beaten on this board.

Truth is even though every single one of your posts has been negative towards CARD we have welcomed you with open arms.

Personally I’m loving these drops. Sold another chunk of my WRKS@65p and bought more CARD@55p.

Rinse repeat.

I’ve seen it all before.

There are 2 certainties here IMO

1) CARD will bag from these prices.
2) Simes will disappear.

I like your posts also simes20 but just to be clear, PassRenti didn’t actually say he liked your posts he said you were good value. {smiley face}.

Just like Card Factories Cards!

Bit of a mixed bag but overall positive for CARD (I think!).

Thoughts?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/falling-shipping-rates-point-to-end-of-the-great-supply-chain-crisis-5gh2hz8fs?shareToken=be7ff9b22cfe7eb44c3ea985002792a0

I wonder if it was a recording?

Quite surprised that he would say anything today knowing that the results are out today.

Smorty send a link where you are getting these freight cost reductions please because if it can be verified then that is great news for CARD also. Cheers

Well that was interesting and totally out of the blue.

Just listening to Radio 2 and Gavin Peck “Chairman of The Works” came on saying something along the lines about the recovery going really well but Freight is a problem.

He said that a typical cost of a Container has gone from £1600 to £15,000!

Thought I would share.

PassRenti (and everybody else) before you hit the sell button (if it is not too late) check out what has happened to WRKS this morning.

This IMO is what is going to happen here to CARD ‘and some’ if you are patient.

DYOR of course it is just my opinion but I really do believe that CARD will be £1+ this year.

Hi cerny I’m no expert but the way I’m reading this is that Wrks yes made a loss but it’s shops were locked down for part of the period reported so are saying that the the divi is based on no more lockdowns?

FY2022

“The income you earned from 1st April 2021 to 31st March 2022”

Hi Beach the answer to your question is held in knowing what exactly this means.

“with a view to recommending a final dividend in respect of FY22”

FY22 - Is that January 31st 2022?

If so, is that a cut off date? so only people investing in the next 10 days or already invested will qualify?

Not sure how dividends work? Anyone?

None of us here truly know what’s going on behind the scenes here but I'm guessing envelope money changes hands for sure.

Maybe I’m just getting bitter and twisted in my old age but I have seen it so many times.

It can be used to your advantage though if you are careful.

Compare WRKS RNS today to CARDS last week and the difference is stark.

Glass half full compared to half empty comes to mind.

Here’s the good news though, just watch how upbeat CARDS next RNS will be now the Chairman has got skin in the game.

It will start along the lines of “High 5 everybody..” ha ha

Ha ha Just do me one big favour jedclampit, if you are going to sell then please let us all know so we can pile in! {smiley face}.

Knew it!

Good morning PassRenti I’m not trying to sway you I’m really not because just like everyone here I’m completely in the dark but you have just hit the nail on the head.

Apart from the mention of the £30m it was a really good (in fact remarkable under the circumstances) set of results.

Im guessing that the largest part of that £30m will be for the much needed IT upgrade which was budgeted for when they increased their loan from £200m to £225m back in May 2021?

Good luck though PassRenti in whatever you decide.

60p+ today guys!

The standout sentence in the whole RNS has got to be the following:-

The balance sheet has gained strength more quickly than expected and, accordingly, the Board will bring forward consideration of dividend payments with a view to recommending a final dividend in respect of FY22, provided the preliminary results to be published in late July 2022 are in line with our revised expectations.“

Well done guys.