Member Info for RoxburyHouse

Hi Harry we are all in the dark here but my guess for what is worth is that Lombard (or Citadel?) have increased their short again gambling that Putin is not retreating from Kyiv?

Normally takes a couple of days before a short is reported so we will find out possibly tomorrow?

Could be wrong of course.

Yeah got to be honest PI, it was never my plan to be this heavily invested but as it dropped I couldn’t resist the temptation to buy more. Like Lorenzo and JAMESY I have been adding in the 40’s. Best I got was 38.9p which I was chuffed about.

Hope it doesn’t all end in tears! Lol

For Newbies:-
Card Factory had a tough close to a pretty awful 2020 and, as anticipated, the year end lockdown meant that banking covenants were breached.

As a result a new £225m financial package with the bank was negotiated with fees of up to £5m payable if pre-payments totalling £70m weren’t made on agreed dates between Nov 30th 2021 and July 2022.

The facilities were structured to incentivise an early reduction of the overall debt.

So in a nutshell the BOD would have 15 months (May 2021 to July 31st 2022) with all their shops fully open to repay £70m and 7 months before the first payment on Nov 30th 2021.

It must be remembered that before Covid the Free cash flow averaged £84m per annum over each of the financial years ending January 2020, with £88m generated in the last of these.

FY18 (31st January 2018). ?924?? Stores. ?
Total Group revenue £422.1m?
EBITDA £86.1m.?
Profit before tax £72.6m?
Net debt £161.3m??

FY19 (31st January 2019). ?974 Stores. ?
Total Group revenue £436.0m?
EBITDA £89.4m?
Profit before tax £66.6m?
Net debt £141.3m??

FY20 (31st January 2020). ?1024 Stores. ?
Total Group revenue £451.0m?
EBITDA £81.2m?
Profit before tax £63.8m?
Lease liabilities of £148.0m??
Net debt £143.1m. ??

FY21 (31st January 2021).?1016 Stores. ?
Revenue £285.1m COVID. ?
EBITDA £47.0m??
LOSS before tax £16.4m?
Lease liabilities of £144.9m?
Deferred Rent+Vat £35.0m?
Net debt £107.7m ??

FY22 (31st January 2022)?EXPECTED:-?
Revenue £360.0m+ ?
EBITDA £71.0m - £74.0m?
Profit before tax £7.0m - £10.0m.?
Lease liabilities £130.1m?
Deferred Rent £7.0m ?
Deferred Vat £0m?
Net debt £60m

They could have opted for a capital raise (and may still do) but as far as we can see at the moment, they are attempting to pay it off without one and have already started ie

Trading update and refinancing.
RNS : 1403N 28 Sept 2021

“In accordance with the terms of the agreement, the Group has made repayments of £4.8m against the £75m Term Loan and £3.2m against the CLBILS in recognition of £8.0m Government grants...”

So as of Sept 2021 the outstanding part of the debt that was agreed to be paid before July 31st 2022 was £62m.

The first of the 9 official payments was Nov 30th 2021 and the last one will be July 31st 2022.

62/9 = £6.9m per month.

The fifth one will be paid this Thursday ie 31st March 2022.

So the outstanding part of the debt that was agreed to be paid back early should now be approx £28m?

Thanks PI there are not many good things about getting old but (as you know) if you have invested wisely then it can be wonderful!

Nice week in Cape Verde with the wife then one quick day to ‘wash me undies’ (too much information) and a week Snowboarding in Val Thorens with my mates.

I would swap it all though (and my 808,944 CARD shares) to be young again but hey ho - any takers?

That made me laugh out loud, NOISEY complaining about how quiet it is! Thanks for that.

I’ve been on holiday the last couple of weeks so had a nice break from shares but will be doing my monthly debt update on Thursday.

Russia invading the Ukraine has had an obvious effect on all shares and the possibility of a recession hasn’t helped.

I still believe in CARD though and even with a 100k + paper loss (average of 60p) feel all will come good.

Hi jedclampit funnily enough me and the wife were just discussing that over lunch today.

I would highly recommend Cape Verde and Boa Vista. It’s very windy and not a lot to do of an evening ie nowhere to walk to but it’s March and the sand is so hot under your feet you have to run and it’s guaranteed sunshine.

Throw in all inclusive and “free” drinks and there’s nothing not to like.

We are in the Riu Palace which is amazing but next door is the Karamboa which we were in 2 years ago which was also amazing - well until the last day when we were all frog marched out of the hotel by police wearing masks and escorted to the airport!

Ha ha Hi Accipiter I see what you did there lol

Hi PI yes v hot but not my thing tbh.

Wife loves it but I spend most my time in the pool swimming or cowering under a sun visor.

20 odd year ago with a small family in tow I lost the shirt off my back in the dot com boom bust.

Vowed I would never touch shares again and never did until this time 2 years ago when I returned from a holiday in Cape Verde.

Someone in our hotel was rushed to hospital and died of a virus called Covid and after a flight from hell with half of the passengers on the flight coughing I spotted an opportunity.

Googled Companies linked to anything to do with “testing” and after loads of quick research piled my now cashed in premium bonds into a little unheard of company called Avacta at 22p.

By absolute fluke I sold the lot close to its peak.

So here I am writing this laid on a sun bed back in Cape Verde wondering if I can do it again?

Got to be linked to this awful war of course and none of the obvious things like gold or oil.

Thoughts?

Well done Beach, it’s so easy to turn a blind eye and thank goodness for people like you who go the extra mile - respect.

Dig deep guys and give what you can afford.

Hi Morgan, yes no probs I’m happy to explain my thoughts:-

Each to their own but personally I didn’t see a profit warning. I saw a problem being managed by a very clever CEO.

Darcy warned us that £ is needed to invest in headcount, IT and development of the online platform to support the delivery of the strategic plan and I’m cool with that.

He mentioned increased cost of freight and also the impact of inflation on staff costs and utilities which IMO will be counteracted with an increase in the cost of a greetings card.

I think the bulk of the £30m is a one off figure which will be paid back many multiples over time.

I am old fashioned and I like the fact that CFs usp is physical shops on the high st and retail parks. CF have got loyal return Customers almost a cult, a following, I have witnessed this.

I’m mainly invested though because their on- line offering is awful. The App is dreadful and they are losing Customers daily.

But… they are aware of this and it’s going to get better. In fact it’s so bad that the only way from here is UP.

They are going to take market share from the likes of MP and FP for certain.

Their factory in Wakefield is running nowhere near capacity so there is room for expansion.

Which brings me nicely onto retail partnerships.

My understanding is that Aldi have renewed and extended their contract.

Sales from retail partners totalled

FY19 £0.1m
FY20 £3.1m
FY21 £5.6m increase of 83.3%
FY22 £4.0m.

Reduction in FY22 of course because CF shops reopened but £4.0m is still really good.

Also look at how much debt they paid off in FY22 and the shops were only open for 9 months of that period.

Please don’t ever invest from any of my ramblings though because this is just my thoughts and I could be completely wrong!

Good luck though whatever you decide.

Well done Beach, I have matched Smorty’s very generous donation and I urge everybody here to contribute what they can afford.

Is so easy to turn a blind eye but what these people you are helping are doing is nothing short of amazing.

C’mon guys help out.

Could be completely wrong but I’m guessing that most people here are what I would call value investors ie only here because they can see that the CF atm is undervalued and the upside is considerably higher than the downside.

Really cannot fathom why the likes of people like simes are here? I would like to think that he is a disgruntled ex employee but if he isn’t and is just doing this for ‘fun’ then that a bit sad.

Over on the AA a Patrolman used to regularly **** off the company and everyone laughed at him but then the company got bought out so we should have listened!

Even though I don’t actually agree with him, Simes brings up some very good points but his continuous negativity is exhausting.

IMO the share price is an absolute bargain atm and when the share price hits £1+ simes will disappear along with most of us! Lol

Where are you atm?

I’m greedy.

I normally try to avoid buying before 9am, thus avoiding the ‘ mad hour’ but couldn’t resist this morning and that 12738@0.389816 around 8:15am is mine.

It’s either world war 3 or recovery and these prices are a gift IMO.

If I’m wrong then we are all doomed anyway so none of this will matter.

No investment advice of course, we are all adults here but every couple of pence down I will keep buying.

Excellent so Lombard have reduced their SHORT by another 342,000 shares yesterday when the price was around 45/46p.

Total now just under 4m so a long way to go but still good news.

Simes why always so negative? My guess is that they haven’t mentioned the ERP Implementation because correctly so they have put it on the back burner whilst they concentrate on more pressing issues. I want them to mention something!

Interesting that you mentioned March 8th Billybob because that is Darcy’s 1 year anniversary. (I think?)

PI this is a buying opportunity!

I have made my wealth from doing the opposite to the masses. So far it has worked.

Thinking outside the box and taking big risks is my strategy. Not easy at times and I have made some colossal mistakes but hey - all part of the game.

When it works though wow what a feeling.

Hi Billybob, totally agree.

I’m genuinely relaxed about this drop. Obviously I would rather every share I bought was purchased at the lowest point and went up immediately but like you I’m realistic and anyone who has been in this game long enough knows this just doesn’t happen.

Hi PurpleInvestor nice to hear from and hope you are well. A BIG WELL DONE with Shoezone mate - Respect.

Well, as far as I am aware (we are all in the dark here) yes the debt payments are and have been made. I’m making that assumption purely based on the fact that I haven’t heard otherwise?

If you look at my last couple of posts I have tried to explain this to the best of my knowledge rather than repeating it all here.

If I have a concern (apart from Russia ofcourse) then it’s the ERP Implementation.

I am hoping that next update will shed some light on this and also the debt?

Well, £100k+ ‘Paper loss’ now but still buying.

It won’t show yet but that 11915 @ 41.6728p is mine.

Yes simes but remember that it works both ways and most PI’s here are just working class guys giving this share dealing malarky a go and losing £ isn’t much fun.

I agree that share chats do not make any difference to the overall direction of the share price but it can influence an individuals decision to buy or sell.

This works both ways of course ramping or de-ramping but I am sure you will agree that this board is reasonably balanced.

If I am being honest, your posts could be a bit more balanced?


Losing £ isn’t much fun.

Yes simes I reposted those figures for your benefit.

I don’t see you as the enemy I think it is important to show warts n all to keep the discussions balanced.