Member Info for RoxburyHouse

Just sharing my research notes guys.

If you see any glaring errors then please let me know otherwise enjoy!

FY18 (31st January 2018).
924?? Stores.
Total Group revenue £422.1m
EBITDA £86.1m.
Profit before tax £72.6m
Net debt £161.3m

FY19 (31st January 2019).
974 Stores.
Total Group revenue £436.0m
EBITDA £89.4m
Profit before tax £66.6m
Net debt £141.3m

FY20 (31st January 2020).
1024 Stores.
Total Group revenue £451.0m
EBITDA £81.2m
Profit before tax £63.8m
Lease liabilities of £148.0m?
Net debt £143.1m.

FY21 (31st January 2021).
1016 Stores.
Revenue £285.1m COVID.
EBITDA £47.0m?
LOSS before tax £16.4m
Lease liabilities of £144.9m
Deferred Rent+Vat £35.0m
Net debt £107.7m *Note 1.

FY22 (31st January 2022)
EXPECTED:-
Revenue £360.0m+ *Note 2.
EBITDA £71.0m - £74.0m *Note 5.
Profit before tax £7.0m - £10.0m.
Lease liabilities £130.1m
Deferred Rent £7.0m *Note 4.
Deferred Vat £0m
Net debt £60m *Note 3.

——————————————————

Note 1.
The reduction in Net Debt of £35m in FY21 is driven by deferrals of VAT (£19m) and deferred property payments (£21m).

Note 2.
It’s important to remember that all Card Factory shops were still locked down or severely restricted Jan-April 2021.

Note 3.
Strong cash generation during the period, resulted in a significant reduction to net debt to £60m.

Note 4.
Deferred Rents of £14.0m and VAT of £19.0m carried over from FY21 were paid during this period. As of 31 December 2021, £7.0m of deferred rent was outstanding. WOW!!

Note 5.
EBITDA numbers are post-IFRS.?
On a pre-IFRS basis, EBITDA for the full year to 31 January 2022 is expected to be in the range of £30.m - £33.0m

Reason?
“The Board expects that the combined impact of unmitigated headwinds; predominantly the increasing cost of freight but also the impact of inflation on staff costs and utilities; plus investment in headcount, IT and development of the online platform to support the delivery of the strategic plan, will add approximately £30m to the pre-Covid FY20 cost base net of mitigation.”

It’s a gamble I know that but an educated one (I think).

In this game to succeed and I mean really succeed you have to think ‘outside of the box’.

You can’t go with the herd.

To be safe I should have my £ divided into several shares across different sectors but that (for me) is borrrrring zzzzzzz.

I have done this all in malarky a couple of times now and so far so good although with an average of just over 60p the Card Factory haven’t served me well - yet but IMO it’s coming.

741,953 shares now jedclampit.

Am I crazy?

The answer to finderskeepers question is yes.

Yes there is a risk to a dilution in the next 3-4 months but back in early April 2021 when it was announced as a possibility the shops were just ending their 3rd lockdown and nobody knew what the future held.

Since then all 1000+ shops have been fully open (almost 11 months) and debt has reduced significantly.

So yes there is still the possibility of dilution but the likelihood has now swung to either no raise or rearranged finance.

All just IMO of course.

Well, I don’t know about anybody else but I’m loving this and still buying. That 22,281@0.540647 earlier this morning was mine and several others this week.

My holding is getting into silly numbers now but IMO this is an amazing opportunity and I’m grabbing it with both hands.

Hopefully it won’t all end in tears!

Absolutely no idea stevebt.

These could be sells?

If they were definitely buys then at 13:39 the share price would have gone up - surely?

Honestly mate, been doing this for years and nothing ever makes sense.

Two big buys/sells declared after the market closed.

Look like buys to me and if I wasn’t so bitter and twisted my guess would be that the share price has been manipulated lower so Lombard can close some of their short?

Obviously that could never happen but would be interested what everyone else thinks?

15-Feb-22 13:39:04 56.60 2,131,000 Unknown* 1m O
15-Feb-22 13:39:06 56.60 2,131,000 Unknown* 1m O

Honestly I LOVE this game.

Sat and watched the tills ringing in both Newcastle and Sunderland/Washington over the weekend. All 3 shops I observed were full of Customers buying ‘stuff’.

Let the MM’s have their fun but always be mindful that this is a well rehearsed game.

I’m guessing the refurbed Card Factory shop in Coventry is linked to the Omni Channel/Click & Collect trial and part of testing the ERP Software Implementation so all good.

Going to be interesting to see if Lombard reduce their Short now the share price is around their average?

Their last throw of the dice has got to be the Russia/ Ukraine conflict?

Upside vs Downside favours the upside IMO but my lovely gain last Thursday has now went to 28 grand in the red - oh well, it was nice while it lasted!

Am I worried not in the least.

Xmas TICK.
Valentines Day TICK.
Easter/Mothers Day next.

Hi Lovelace with an average (IMO) of 57/58p Lombard will no doubt be watching this share very closely atm.

Their decision to short Card again only IMO was based at the time on further lockdowns uncertainty and the possibility of dilution.

None have these have materialised as of yet and as a gambling man I would say are not going to.

They still have the same 3 choices.

1 Wait and hope the share price doesn’t run away with itself.
2 Increase the Short.
3 Reduce the Short.

Everyone (including me) is expecting for the share price to retract BUT that’s too predictable and if there is one thing I have learned in this game is that NOTHING is predictable!

Hi again Accipiter having a large holding is a double edged sword - great when going up but awful going down! My first purchase of this batch was @78p when it dipped from 90p+ thinking I had bought at a trough but as we all now know it kept dropping so I kept averaging down and it kept dropping ffs so I kept averaging down until I ended up all in!

Spent most of my time here with a big paper loss at one point - £80 odd grand down but I’m a believer and have kept the faith. In fact today (with an average of 60 ish pence) i’m finally out of the red.

Good luck though to everybody regardless of the size of your holding.

£1+ this year IMO.

Hi again Accipiter years ago before I got into property development I was full time in IT.

What they are doing is really tricky and fraught with potential problems if not managed properly and done correctly slowly and methodically.

If you reread the text above that I cut and pasted out of RNS Number : 5394D you will see that phase 1 (of several phases) was expected to be switched over in October and I’m guessing that has already happened?

I’m going to be concerned though if we don’t get some sort of update soon.

Hi Accipiter not necessarily late. It could have happened and on time in October for all we know?

Do you remember the poster “Yorkshireman1”? He works for the Card Factory and back on October 22nd he reported that the omni channel is ‘well under way’ and all was going well.

Just need Darcy to pull his finger out and start reporting the good news including the 2 year extension of the Aldi contract.

Hi Lsetown yes ridiculous really I just can’t help myself. I had to take my broken snowboard bindings back to snow+rock on Northumberland St in Newcastle today and couldn’t resist secret shopping the Card Factory which just happens to be opposite. In the 20minutes I was there, there was a queue at the till and there was 3 cashiers!

Exit point? 90p+ I will start reducing. (I think!).

Ps I’m not too worried about my exit strategy for the Card Factory, that will happen naturally and when another stock catches my eye. My bigger concern is an exit strategy for the Stock Market and leave all this behind. I’m still convinced that the only way out (and I mean properly out) is to lose everything. Ha ha

Hi RoxburyHouse how are you doing?
Fine thank you how are you RoxburyHouse?
Fine Thank you. Lol!

More words…

Annual Financial Report
Tue, 29th Jun 2021 16:27
RNS Number : 5394D
Card Factory PLC
29 June 2021

“Our ERP implementation is being effected on a phased basis, following detailed testing, with support from specialist third parties, and strong governance, designed to materially adopt established solutions, with limited bespoke arrangements. The initial phase is due to be cut-over in October 2021 affecting master data, point of sale data and finance system changes. It has been subject to detailed design, with extensive consultation across the business to understand requirements, and will be subject to extensive testing and user training as part of implementation.”

Can’t stress how important this is and how much positive news will shift the share price.

C’mon Darcy give us an update and while you are at it get your hand in your pocket and get some skin in the game mate.

Hiya jedclampit

As we know, Card Factory’s usp is physical shops on the High St but I think Covid has changed all that.

One of the reasons I invested so heavily here is because the Card Factory’s App and On line website are so poor compared to Moonpig.

Physically they have got everything in place to be massive on line and take Moonpig on or at least take a large part of their market share.

What’s holding them back is their software and ability to supply a sudden large on line demand.

but it’s coming!

That’s is all that is needed here IMO.

Check out Card Factory reviews on Feefo and Trustpilot:-

https://www.feefo.com/en-GB/reviews/card-factory?displayFeedbackType=BOTH&timeFrame=YEAR

https://uk.trustpilot.com/review/www.cardfactory.co.uk

They are definitely getting better and going in the right direction.

Moonpig and Card Factory surprisingly have the same number of shares 342m.

Moonpig share price currently £3.
Card Factory share price 58p.

Once the ERP Implementation is successfully completed and Card Factory are able to handle the demand then I’m expecting to see a big push advertising their website and App.

I’m ‘all in’ again here 100% of my portfolio 680,255 shares!

Obviously everything I say is biased and possibly wishful thinking but hey ho live by the sword die by the sword. One life live it!! Lol

Didn’t expect anyone here to know the answer to the above question of course because we are all in the dark but the Chairman isn’t. He will know exactly where they are in this process and him buying 200,000 shares recently speaks volumes IMO.

more words pulled out of a past RNS.

“Use new data capabilities, including through the rollout of the Group's new ERP platform in Q4 2021

· Transform the business from a predominantly store-driven retail model to a full omni-channel offer that uses new and existing infrastructure to become the first card and gifting retailer to provide a seamless physical and online shopper experience. This will provide access to card, gift and personalised products anytime, anywhere, through Card Factory's stores, website, apps and click & collect and home delivery services; allowing Card Factory to significantly increase its online market share while strengthening its store estate sales;“

Based on absolutely nothing other than the passage of time I reckon an update on this is imminent and (hopefully) going to be good.

RNS Number : 4057B
Card Factory PLC
10 June 2021

CEO Darcy Willson-Rymer said:-

“The preparations for our ERP implementation, on hold during the third lockdown, is now progressing well, with phase one now scheduled for October 2021. We expect this will further improve efficiency and replace multiple solutions, many of which are no longer supported and unreliable.”

Must be due some news on this?

Also relieves the boredom…

Don’t under any circumstances play with more than 10% of your holding though.

It’s so tempting to increase the % when the trade works your way and I have made that mistake in the past with ODX, AML and SAGA increasing to 100% !!

Every single time my short term gain has been wiped out by a sudden rise when I was temporarily ‘out’.

All IMO of course.

Morning Jedclampit I hope so!

I’m loving this 60+ 50+ to and fro swing.

Anything above a 5p difference on a £10,000 trade pulls 1200+ shares for free!

Most probably all going to end in tears but just like VeliBaba2 I’m playing around with a small part of my holding and taking advantage of this short situation.

Truth is with over 6m shares sold Lombard and Citadel have taken all the risk for us.