Member Info for RoxburyHouse

and the moral of the story is don’t listen to anything RoxburyHouse says because I called it wrong again!

I’m still a believer though Jackbogle, I really am.

I like things to make sense and IMO Lombard are taking this opportunity to drive this down to mid to low 50’s to exit.

Nothing else makes sense.

The results were good enough to show that CARD have survived Covid and if it wasn’t for this open short then they ordinarily would have drifted +/- a couple of pence.

Going to be interesting to see if Lombard have reduced or dare I say increased their short?

Won’t show up yet but the following 2 buys are mine.

Great buying opportunity.

17812@0.558167

17473@0.569

Long and Strong. I’m a believer.

T - 8 minutes.

What will Lombard do?

This could be their last chance to drive the share price down…..

6 minutes…

Oh I LOVE this game.

Yes the Market has got it right yet again. Overall good and realistically nothing to complain about.

Debt getting serviced and going in the right direction.

Share direction? mmmm tricky one hard to call but nothing in there to take it back down to Lombards average of 57p IMO

Onwards and Upwards.

Ha ha Feels like Xmas morning.

“Can I get up yet Dad?”

“NO GO BACK TO SLEEP SANTA HASNT BEEN YET. “

That brings back memories.

Good luck everybody today I know I’m not the only one who is having a punt on this one.

Remember that today is just about CARD showing to the market that it is back on track and able to service the debt built up because of Covid. It’s all about that dreaded £70m. If it can show this then be patient, the £ will come.

Fingers crossed guys and good luck.

Omg JoeSoap I know we are complete strangers and wouldn’t know each other if we passed in the street but you have made my day mate. I am so so happy for you.

My next challenge to you is to take a pint of water with you to bed EVERY night and put it on your bedside cabinet.

Every morning you are not allowed to get out of bed until you have drank it. Make it a ritual.

Absolutely no point in doing all this share dealing/gambling malarky if you are not going to live a long life and enjoy it.

Well done mate.

Over £400,000 more buys than sells.

Fingers crossed that’s Lombard reducing their short.

T - 12 hours…

“I bet you say that to all the girls JoeSoap” ha ha ( The auld ones ARE the best)lol

Yes I do agree PI that under normal circumstances the market rarely gets it wrong and everything is usually ‘priced in’ before an update but… these aren't normal circumstances and I didn’t want to say it whilst the market was open and mislead anybody but I’m expecting a rerate tomorrow!

90p+ by close of play Fridayand I’m putting my reputation on that! {laughing face} ha ha

Ps still haven’t got over selling my SHOE @ 60p just before the rise and you advising me not to. Wish I had listened!

RNS Number : 3663Z 21 May 2021

“Subject to prevailing market conditions and upon taking independent advice, the Company intends to use its best efforts to raise net equity proceeds of £70m to facilitate these prepayments. The Company is also permitted, under the terms of the facilities, to prepay £70m using funding from other subordinated sources.”

Those were the exact words back in May that made PI’s
panic and sell dropping the share price from 90p+ to 60p.

If Card announce tomorrow that they no longer needs to “raise net equity proceeds of £70m” because they have raised the funds through sales OR refinanced then IMO this share price will jump +10p.

Any positive news about dividends being reinstated then another +10p.

RI/share Dilution then -10p.

I’m feeling positive and hope that all my research and secret shopping has been worthwhile.

Ha ha Carlost Well done perfect timing!

This will be back in the 60’s next week you have my word, well ok maybe not my word but ehhh my opinion!

They are always busy and the kids love those fidget finger things and jigsaws were really popular over lockdown.

They have not only spent a fortune fine tuning their website but also behind the scenes in procurement and supply.

Try it out.

Go on their website and see how easy and simple it is to get to the checkout ie a couple of clicks.

They were locked down for the same number of weeks as Card but came out over that period with a profit.

Good luck.

Hi lsetown
Whilst secret shopping CARD I couldn’t help but notice how busy WRKS was.
Further investigation showed that unlike CARD going into debt and breaching covenants WRKS came out of Covid in profit.

In addition they have spent a small fortune on their website which has gone from strength to strength.

CARD is riskier with potential big gains whereas WRKS is a nice safe 50%er from here.

All IMO of course and please do your own research!

RI? I have got that on the brain atm!
I meant PI of course!

Well done RI respect.

Great when a plan comes together.

It’s not too late.
CARD Trading update this Thursday.
WRKS Trading update on the 21st.
Well done Shoe holders especially PurpleInvestor who believed in this all along.

Hi lsetown ehhm yes and yes.

The question I think though that no one has asked is why £70m and why July 31st 2022?

IMO these figures weren't pulled out of a hat or forced onto the Card Bod. They were agreed to be reasonable and realistic providing there were no more lockdowns.

The gamble here has always been about lockdowns as far as I’m concerned and now there hasn’t been any then and there is unlikely to be anymore then investment is a whole lot less risky.

Lombard is a concern but I’m still banking on them knowing nothing more than us PI’s and just like us they make mistakes. I have hedged my bet with Wrks though in case I am wrong.

All is going to become clear though on Thursday morning!

Guys these are just my notes that I thought I would share to generate discussion?

Bit rough and ready but hey ho.

Previous Trading Statements.
Thur 11th Jan 2018
Thur 11th Jan 2019
Thur 9th Jan 2020
Thur 14th Jan 2021

Everyone was the second Thursday in January so this one is likely to be this Thursday 13th.

So, what is everyone hoping for in this Thursdays Trading Statement?

Warts n all here is my list :-

Rights Issue/Share Dilution?

Current Net Debt?
(Previous years :-
31st Dec 2019 £119m
31st Dec 2020 £90m)

Revenue?
(Previous years :-
31st Dec 2019 of £424.5m
31st Dec 2020 of £281.4m)

Refinancing?
Dividends?
Further Lockdowns?
Supply Issues?
BOE Rate Rise from 0.1% to 0.25%
Container costs increase?
Staff shortages?
Covenants?
Debt Payments?
High street footfall?
Average basket size?
Like for like sales?
On line growth?
New Stores?
Depressed sterling valuation?
High cost inflation (wages)?
Partnerships?
Sales to Trading Partners?
ERP implementation?

Additional notes:-

Back in Jan just before Covid hit there was a trading statement announcing new retail partnerships:-
 
In November, (2019) Card Factory completed the roll out of its agreement with Aldi to supply a range of everyday cards to 440 of its UK stores. How is this going?
 
The previously announced trial with Matalan continues, now covering 15 stores. Progress?
 
Further afield, the Group has rolled out of its card offering to The Reject Shop's 360 stores in Australia. Progress?

Hopefully Net debt further reduced.

Debt payments made and no further covenants breached?

Partnerships -Extentions or New?

—————————
CEO Darcy Willson-Rymer said:-

“The preparations for our ERP implementation, on hold during the third lockdown, is now progressing well, with phase one now scheduled for October 2021. We expect this will further improve efficiency and replace multiple solutions, many of which are no longer supported and unreliable.”

Progress?
——————————-

Hi lsetown pleased it helped.

Back in April after 3 lockdowns the Card Factory’s Board of Directors sat round a table cap in hand with the bank.

The stores had been forcibly shut down by the Government for 5 of the previous 12 months and tight restrictions on parties and gatherings meant the banking covenants were about to be breached.

They were desperate and they agreed to pay back £70m of the loan with tight timescales.

Fast forward to now January 2022 and once again there is a likelihood that they will be sitting around the same table with the bank but this time after 9 months of successful trading things will be very different.

We are all hoping they will refinance the debt and announce a date to reintroduce the dividends.

Card Factory had a tough close to a pretty awful 2020 and, as anticipated, the year end lockdown meant that banking covenants were breached.

As a result a new £225m financial package with the bank was negotiated with fees of up to £5m payable if pre-payments totalling £70m weren’t made on agreed dates between Nov 30th 2021 and July 2022.

The facilities were structured to incentivise an early reduction of the overall debt.

So in a nutshell the BOD would have 15 months (May 2021 to July 31st 2022) with all their shops fully open to repay £70m and 7 months before the first payment on Nov 30th 2021.

It must be remembered that before Covid the Free cash flow averaged £84m per annum over each of the financial years ending January 2020, with £88m generated in the last of these.

31st January 2020 (Before Covid)
Revenue £451m
(Free Cash Flow £84m)

31st January 2021
Revenue £285.1m
(Free Cash Flow £88m)

They could have opted for a capital raise (and may still do) but as far as we can see at the moment, they are attempting to pay it off without one and have already started ie

Trading update and refinancing.
RNS : 1403N 28 Sept 2021

“In accordance with the terms of the agreement, the Group has made repayments of £4.8m against the £75m Term Loan and £3.2m against the CLBILS in recognition of £8.0m Government grants...”

So as of Sept 2021 the outstanding part of the debt that was agreed to be paid before July 31st 2022 was £62m.

The first of the 9 official payments was Nov 30th 2021 and the second one was on Friday (31st Dec).

62/9 = £6.9m per month.

So the outstanding part of the debt is now just over £48m.

Everything hinged on the shops remaining open over the Xmas period and they did.

Assuming Lombard (who have a Short open) don’t know something that we don’t then the January Trading Update should be (fingers crossed) good.