Member Info for RoxburyHouse

“We welcomed our colleagues and customers back into our stores in England and Wales (12 April), Scotland (26 April), Northern Ireland (30 April) and the Republic of Ireland (17 May).”

It’s easy to forget that for the first 3 months of FY22 (see above) the shops were locked down!

The figures for FY22 (31st January 2022) above are amazing.

Look at the reduction in lease liabilities,
Deferred Rent+Vat and Net debt!

FY18 (31st January 2018).
924?? Stores.
Total Group revenue £422.1m
EBITDA £86.1m.
Profit before tax £72.6m
Net debt £161.3m

——————————————————

FY19 (31st January 2019).
974 Stores.
Total Group revenue £436.0m
EBITDA £89.4m
Profit before tax £66.6m
Net debt £141.3m

——————————————————

FY20 (31st January 2020).
1024 Stores.
Total Group revenue £451.0m
EBITDA £81.2m
Profit before tax £63.8m
Lease liabilities of £148.0m?
Net debt £143.1m.

——————————————————

FY21 (31st January 2021).
1016 Stores.
Revenue £285.1m COVID.
EBITDA £47.0m?
LOSS before tax £16.4m
Lease liabilities of £144.9m
Deferred Rent+Vat £35.0m
Net debt £107.7m *Note 1.

——————————————————
FY22 (31st January 2022)
EXPECTED:-
Revenue £360.0m+ *Note 2.
EBITDA £71.0m - £74.0m *Note 5.
Profit before tax £7.0m - £10.0m.
Lease liabilities £130.1m
Deferred Rent £7.0m *Note 4.
Deferred Vat £0m
Net debt £60m *Note 3.

——————————————————
Note 1.
The reduction in Net Debt of £35m in FY21 is driven by deferrals of VAT (£19m) and deferred property payments (£21m).

Note 2.
It’s important to remember that all Card Factory shops were still locked down or severely restricted Jan-April 2021.

Note 3.
Strong cash generation during the period, resulted in a significant reduction to net debt to £60m.

Note 4.
Deferred Rents of £14.0m and VAT of £19.0m carried over from FY21 were paid during this period. As of 31 December 2021, only £7.0m of deferred rent was outstanding.

Note 5.
EBITDA numbers are post-IFRS.
On a pre-IFRS basis, EBITDA for the full year to 31 January 2022 is expected to be in the range of £30.m - £33.0m

IFRS = International Financial Reporting Standards.

pre-IFRS is to show a fairer comparison to previously reported numbers.

Additional Note:-
The Board expects that the combined impact of unmitigated headwinds; predominantly the increasing cost of freight but also the impact of inflation on staff costs and utilities; plus investment in headcount, IT and development of the online platform to support the delivery of the strategic plan, will add approximately £30m to the pre-Covid FY20 cost base net of mitigation.

Me too, can’t stop myself.

That 10945 @ 0.453656 is me.

This will come good.

Cue Simes…

Simes if what you say is true then answer a really simple question for me.

How did the Card Factory in the last 12 months manage to pay £47.7m off their Net debt reducing it from £107.7 to £60m?

In addition please explain how in the same period they also paid off £28m of deferred rent + vat?

Does this sound like a Company poor fundamentals. Growing costs. Lowering sales. No answers. Really?

Good morning simes

C’mon then which one do you work for?

Lombard or Citadel? !!

So Lombard reduced by 0.04%
from 1.3% to 1.26%
on 28th Feb (yesterday).

So a BUY of 136,800 shares @ (approx) 49p reducing their total SHORT now to
4,309,200 shares.

Citadel reduced by 0.08%
from 0.56% to 0.48%
on 25th Feb (last Friday).

So a BUY of 273,600 shares @ (approx) 48p reducing their total SHORT now to
1,915,200 shares.

Note although no longer ‘reportable’ Citadels short is very much open and can (and most probably will) be increased at any time.

Hopefully todays buy of 250,000 shares is one of these Company’s reducing further (or even better, one of the directors buying shares).

Between them they have to BUY back over 6.2m shares to close both SHORTS and did anybody notice the jump in share price today with a ‘mere’ 250,000 buy?

They will do it in stages to get the best price.

We will find out before July 31st (the final debt payment) so they have 5 months to close both shirts and they have both shown their hand by letting us know that they are happy with 48/49p

All IMHO of course and yes I could be completely wrong but most here will know I have bet my shirt on this and still have faith.

Maybe one of the directors buying or Lombard (finally) reducing their short?

Find out over the next couple of days.

Well, we are always the last to know jedclampit and I’m frustrated by it all also.

As you know, I’m ball deep in this and starting to question my own blind faith because I also have been emailing them and they never ever reply. In fact I’m starting believe that they just don’t care about us or their (on line) Customers for that matter.

Trying to keep the faith this is my understanding:- (pulled from my figures above).

FY20 (31st January 2020). ?Lease liabilities of £148.0m?Net debt £143.1m. ??FY21 (31st January 2021)?Lease liabilities of £144.9m?Deferred Rent+Vat £35.0m?Net debt £107.7m ??FY22 (31st January 2022)?EXPECTED:-?Lease liabilities £130.1m?Deferred Rent £7.0m ?Deferred Vat £0m?Net debt £60m

In the last 12 months Net debt has gone down from £107.7 to £60m (£47.7m) BUT so also has £28m of deferred rent + vat.

Forgetting the differed rent + vat…

The £47.7m of debt that has been paid down has to have come off the £70m that was agreed to be paid before July 2022?

So as of Dec31st 2021 £70m - £47.7m = £22.3m

Does this make sense?

I’m still hanging on in here and have (stupidly?) increased my holding to just short of 760k of these blo ody shares now.

Hope I’m not going to regret this.

Always worth another airing especially for newbies:-

For Newbies:-

Card Factory had a tough close to a pretty awful 2020 and, as anticipated, the year end lockdown meant that banking covenants were breached.

As a result a new £225m financial package with the bank was negotiated with fees of up to £5m payable if pre-payments totalling £70m weren’t made on agreed dates between Nov 30th 2021 and July 2022.

The facilities were structured to incentivise an early reduction of the overall debt.

So in a nutshell the BOD would have 15 months (May 2021 to July 31st 2022) with all their shops fully open to repay £70m and 7 months before the first payment on Nov 30th 2021.

It must be remembered that before Covid the Free cash flow averaged £84m per annum over each of the financial years ending January 2020, with £88m generated in the last of these.

FY18 (31st January 2018). ?924?? Stores. ?Total Group revenue £422.1m?EBITDA £86.1m.?Profit before tax £72.6m?Net debt £161.3m??FY19 (31st January 2019). ?974 Stores. ?Total Group revenue £436.0m?EBITDA £89.4m?Profit before tax £66.6m?Net debt £141.3m??FY20 (31st January 2020). ?1024 Stores. ?Total Group revenue £451.0m?EBITDA £81.2m?Profit before tax £63.8m?Lease liabilities of £148.0m??Net debt £143.1m. ??FY21 (31st January 2021).?1016 Stores. ?Revenue £285.1m COVID. ?EBITDA £47.0m??LOSS before tax £16.4m?Lease liabilities of £144.9m?Deferred Rent+Vat £35.0m?Net debt £107.7m ??FY22 (31st January 2022)?EXPECTED:-?Revenue £360.0m+ ?EBITDA £71.0m - £74.0m *Note 5.?Profit before tax £7.0m - £10.0m.?Lease liabilities £130.1m?Deferred Rent £7.0m ?Deferred Vat £0m?Net debt £60m

They could have opted for a capital raise (and may still do) but as far as we can see at the moment, they are attempting to pay it off without one and have already started ie

Trading update and refinancing.
RNS : 1403N 28 Sept 2021

“In accordance with the terms of the agreement, the Group has made repayments of £4.8m against the £75m Term Loan and £3.2m against the CLBILS in recognition of £8.0m Government grants...”

So as of Sept 2021 the outstanding part of the debt that was agreed to be paid before July 31st 2022 was £62m.

The first of the 9 official payments was Nov 30th 2021 and the last one will be July 31st 2022.

62/9 = £6.9m per month.

The fourth one was paid yesterday 28th Feb 2022.

So the outstanding part of the debt that was agreed to be paid back early should now be approx £35m? OR less?

Hi everybody hope you are all well (especially Dimi!).

Sat watching the Apprentice and the challenge is selling an Aston Martin hospitality package and thought I would report in.

Check it out on bbc iplayer.

Kind Regards
The Headmaster.

We are all going to look back and question why we didn’t buy even more at this price. I wasn’t fast enough to get 47p but did manage @ 0.482495p

These dips are going to be a distant memory soon IMO.

Hi mdunsire I don’t much (well, actually anything) but what I do know and keep banging on about is to be successful in this game you have to think ‘outside the box’ and do the opposite to the masses.

Selling up yesterday would be an example of that but not today!

However you could be right mate and regardless I wish you well but remember one thing, the only way out of this is to lose everything so you will be back! (and then lose everything!) lol

Take care.

The warning sign was there and we all chose to ignore it. As soon as jedclampit declared he had bought back in @52p we should have all sold up ha ha

On the plus side surely with an average of 56/57p Lombard will reduce their short?

My “Paper loss” is back to being huge again but I have faith in this stock, I really do.

Long and strong.

Hi Simes I will tell you what I see positive about the future and why I am still invested.

Back in May 2021 the BoD issued a statement that they had refinanced the debt and agreed with the bank to pay off £70m early.

Prior to making this statement there had been 3 lockdowns and the future was very much uncertain.

Fast forward to now, today.

45 weeks and no lockdowns.

In their wildest dreams they never expected that. I doubt anyone here did either. I most certainly didn’t.

315 days of all 1019 shops fully open.

So almost a year ago they talked about raising £ to pay off debt and from what I can see, they do not need to anymore?

C’mon Simes even you must secretly be impressed with the way CARD have reduced their Net debt from £143.1m in FY20 to £60m in FY22?

Ie
“Strong cash generation during the period, resulted in a significant reduction to net debt to £60m”

Considering all CARD shops were locked down for 3 months of this period that is pretty amazing - yes?

Hi bottomberp it’s very easy to forget that there are guys here who are genuine LTHs and were in before Covid.

It would be interesting to know the average of the large institutions that are also invested here?

Similar to GrahamC72 I jumped in when the share price dipped after the infamous mention of possible dilution and got in at 78p and have spent an absolute fortune £ averaging down since then.

Spent the majority of my time here big time in the red but I really do believe that this share will come good.

Hard to believe that Darcy’s 1 year anniversary is 8th March.

I wonder if he is planning a big announcement?

Totally agree lpd.

I can’t remember CARDs share price being affected when America invaded/abandoned Iraq or Afghanistan?

This is a buying opportunity IMO for sure.

Keep thinking outside the box guys.

Hi again Hexam, I cut and pasted that from somewhere but I can’t find it and you are right it is obviously old and nothing to do with recent events.

I also just can’t see an equity raise but really don’t mind if there is one. Obviously the share price will drop but it will be temporary.

Important4

“Debt pre-payments will be from 30 November 2021 through until 30 July 2022. Subject to prevailing market conditions and upon taking independent advice, the Company intends to use its best efforts to raise net equity proceeds of £70m to facilitate these prepayments. The Company is also permitted, under the terms of the facilities, to prepay £70m using funding from other subordinated sources.”

Well, they had better get a move on because 1 week today is the 28th Feb and the 4th of 9 payments will be due.

By my reckoning this will take the £70m part of the debt that is getting paid back early to £35m.

Thanks for your post and explanation Hexam much appreciated.

Another gem I found hidden deep inside one of the RNS’s is the following quote which I wonder if you can shed some light on regarding where we are now :-

“Furthermore, the Group must use best efforts to raise equity if leverage is above 3.0x before the later of January 2021 or 3 months before the redemption of the final commercial paper issuance.”?

Ok I am not going to pretend to be an expert in all of this but what those figures tell me is that Card Factory as a Company has emerged from Covid in good shape.

As we know, for a large part of 2020 and until April 2021 the majority of the shops were locked down.

For a Company who’s USP is physical shops on the high st. that of course was serious.

Yes there are concerns especially with increased freight/staff costs and the need for IT investment but these are being addressed, not ignored.

Look at the reduction in debt!

Patience is all that is needed here IMO.