Member Info for rossannan

rxdav

There is always someone to talk to, even if it is only newbies looking in. Posting under my own name helps me resist the temptation to get nasty or personal with posters who get nasty or personal with me. Filtering them is just good housekeeping - if someone gets nasty or personal it often signifies a less rational/objective take on CERP (one way or the other) so engaging with them is a waste of their time and yours.

rxdav

The trick is just to deploy the filter button if it gets nasty or personal. That way you can keep the focus on the company. There is no end to it otherwise.

Garnhiem.

The more I think about it following our discussion of LK’s forecast for Q1, the clearer it seems to me that sub-2.5p is nailed on here (rxdav may even get his 2.2p, come to that). I do not see how LK can on the one hand suggest that he expects CERP to do no more than wash its face in Q1 (bit over-optimistic there Leo, IMO) and at the same time float the possibility of the SWP being self-funded. If he wants to turn sentiment around here he needs to get real with the market about funding the SWP.

Garnhiem.

Personally I suspect that is wishful thinking though - I expect less cash burn than in Q4, but still some cash burn.

Garnhiem.

I think I see where the confusion has arisen. In the last RNS LK forecast that with the measures you mention CERP would basically wash its face in Q1 - $2.6m end Q4, $2.6m end Q1, in other words. Not the same as making a profit that would actually increase that cash balance.

Garnhiem.

Now you’re getting it. Q1 average production (800bopd? 900bopd?) will be crucial because the bank balance at the end of Q1 will determine how much additional funding will be required for the SWP. Reading between the lines, LK does not seem to be expecting an end Q1 balance any higher than the end Q4 balance of $2.6m (I personally expect it to be lower than $2.6m), so, with each SWP drill costing $2-4m, Q2 is unlikely to generate the rest of the fighting fund that he will need to embark upon the SWP (I suspect that a Predator windfall is just wishful thinking in this market).

Garnhiem.

No, and the words “instantaneous” and “initial” are enough to tell anyone who is fluent in Ritsonese what happened here!

Garnhiem.

I’m looking at this from the point of view of how the peak production broke down across the six fields, as this might provide a clue as to how sustainable it might be in the current quarter (not very, I suspect, unless e.g. we find that Goudron WF really started to kick in last month). I emailed the company to ask for this information but Camarco got back to me to politely refuse my request. The next MEEI Bulletin (and the one after that, in about six weeks) will though clear the smoke a little.

Garnhiem.

That’s a good point about the MEEI Bulletin. If the one for December, due in a fortnight give or take, shows an average for the IPSC assets not that much higher than the one for November or October, that will raise interesting questions about where LK got his peak production from. I am starting to wonder whether LK is turning into, or maybe even always was, a bit of a smoke and mirrors merchant.

ColonelDrake

“Ross has not got a clue what Leo has planned for SWP.”

http://www.valuethemarkets.com/index.php/2019/01/22/columbus-energys-leo-koot-transformational-plans-trinidad-firm-gears-expansion-cerp/?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=socialnetwork

“All-in-all, Koot says this exploration potential is what excited him the most about Columbus’s SWP acreage. Company interpretations have unearthed twelve prospects with volumes of between 20-400MMbbls in place (for each prospect). Koot plans to drill between two and three wells targeting shallower prospects for $2-4m each. He expects the first of these to spud in H2 2019.”

ColonelDrake

I will buy in if and when CERP is worth buying into. 2019 is the year of the shallower SWP targets - LK has made that crystal clear. The relevant formations have all been identified - it’s up to you whether you research them but it is important to remember that this is exploration and that all the bucks may therefore deliver whimpers rather than bangs, no matter how carefully chosen the targets. The market is still asking where the bucks are coming from in the first place. This is of no interest to me until LK answers that question.

ColonelDrake

Have you had a look at the shallower formations that are currently being targeted in the SWP and what those formations have given other companies in terms of sustainable bopd? If you haven’t you might want to (and perhaps reconsider your 10p+).

Bamps21

Nearly 9 years for me. I will believe it when I see it. I do though believe that, rightly or wrongly, sentiment will turn once LK is credibly on his way to the SWP. The SWP may just turn out to be Goudron writ large, but there is something to be said for joining the journey, for a while at least.

rxdav

All LK really needs to do is set a clearer course for the SWP - if there has to be a placing he should get it done now and accelerate the programme if he can. Maybe a placing is what the current price action is all about. Time will tell.

rxdav

I accept that my confidence about this not going sub-2p may be misplaced - it is certainly surprising to see it back at 2.5p with WTI looking firmer. But whether the turning point is just below 2p, 2p or a little above 2p, I am still sure that there will be one - I suspect that in some ways the unrealistic expectations of the CERP shareholder base will ensure it,

*serious risk

rxdav

I would argue that if LK does not bite the funding bullet during Q1 he runs a serious result of being in a weaker position following the Q1 results - I suspect that the cash balance will have diminished further over Q1.

rxdav

LK really has no choice but to bite the bullet sooner rather than later - I doubt that he is expecting a windfall from Predator and I suspect that the Q1 results will disappoint so he needs to sort it this quarter, IMO.

rxdav

“When” could conceivably be brought forward as one way that LK could cover his embarrassment when doing a placing would be to present it as an acceleration of the SWP programme. You are wrong though to suggest that this is going to drift until the first drill result is in - it will only drift until it becomes clear how the SWP is going to be funded and what the timetable is. At that point the rampathon will begin.

rxdav

Very hard to say when I don’t know what the share price is going to be just before that result comes in - that pre-RNS share price will depend on how the drill was funded at the end of the day and the level of excitement that it generated as it was turning. And we don’t know where WTI will be by mid-year. There could accordingly be a sell on news effect or a spike. But nothing in those formations is going to bother double figures, put it that way.