Member Info for rossannan

Even LK has been quite clear about the shallower formations that CERP’s initial foray into the SWP will be targeting. Anyone at all familiar with those formations will know what success there looks like. It does not look anything like 25p. So are the Board Police going to do anything about limopeter’s misleading statement? Thought not.

rxdav

As I have suggested before, the problem with the partnership option is that LK has not kept his powder dry enough to have a decent stab at the SWP on his own first. Going cap in hand to potential partners before ground has even been broken in the SWP will entail giving away more of the potential prize than folk on here will, I suspect, be comfortable with. LK would be in a much stronger position approaching potential partners on the back of drilling success.

Rugby2015

Even if you think I’m wrong about a placing, would you deny that folk on here always underestimate how capital intensive this all is and always overestimate production/cash generation?

Rugby2015

You cannot deny the strong empirical evidence for the proposition. Wait and see, but my prediction is that there will be a placing and that LK will use the tried and tested cover story of it being in some way an acceleration or expansion of the programme.

rxdav

It tells me that shareholder value is not as high on his list of priorities as it should be.

rxdav

I don’t think the market’s buying that, and fair enough too.

philipy

Has to be the right news though. Look at the share price chart from Q2 2018 onwards - there has been plenty of news over the period, just not the right news to break the downwards trend. It’s worth having a think about what the right news would be and what LK can do to deliver it.

offerman

“Fundamentally wise and management wise we are one of the strongest on AIM”

I get it that folk on here expect great things of LK, and have been expecting them for a while now. The jury is out on that one, but on what reasonable basis can you say that in terms of fundamentals CERP is one of the strongest on AIM? Try comparing CERP’s fundamentals with TRIN’s. There is no comparison. CERP is about folk buying into a potential growth story, it is absolutely not about fundamentals.

*It

jeffry

I really doesn’t need any help from me. This is likely how it’s going to be until LK bites the bullet on funding the SWP.

LGO-fan

I suppose a no deal outcome needs to be contemplated here too.

joebop

But that reads like a condition precedent rather than a covenant so until the last few weeks there was nothing preventing LK from taking the whole lot. It will be interesting to see what alternative he comes up with.

countdemonet

They will keep posting anyway. CERP is basically everything that you need to know about AIM oilers in one company, making the exercise of trying to get a handle on CERP a great workout for anyone with an O&G portfolio.

Jonny2by4

Also, who seriously believes that what they post on a BB can achieve them a better entry?

On which note WTI sadly looks a bit stuck at the moment.

Jonny2by4

Not trying for a better entry, rather, as my colleague Irene puts it “testing the bull case” (and finding that until it becomes clear how the initial foray into the SWP is to be funded and/or WTI skyrockets, there isn’t one. Simples.

Gibbo1066

This is what I was saying, nothing to worry about at Stage 2. But here at Stage 1 the market can see CERP coming - hence the sub-3p share price.

HH

“On exploration success” and “should the Company see success” are the important phrases there. If they self-fund and are not lucky first time they will then, on any interpretation of CERP’s finances which does not involve wishful thinking about production generally or a TI windfall in particular, be left with not much more than fumes in the tank. That would be a recipe for mega-dilution. This is why I still don’t understand why LK passed on the LIND Facility. Whatever the rhetoric, the reality is that self-funding is not an option. LK will no doubt find a way of spinning whatever move he makes by talking about it being an expansion and/or acceleration of the SWP programme (or something like that), but, mark my words, he will have to make some kind of move.

Rugby2015

“Wells are going to cost between $2-4 million and plan to drill 2-3 wells this year.”

Say just 2 this year. Where is $4-8 million coming from? $2.6 million in the bank currently. If there is still as much as $2.6 million in the bank at the end of Q1 that will be quite a turnaround. CoP? High.

The more articles like that we see, the greater the CoP (chance of a placing).