Member Info for rossannan

Hedgecutter

There’s no rush. Leo has a glass jaw.

wraith

Simply to test the bull case, as I said. So you are confident that Leo has everything in hand and have no concerns about cash burn? And a placing in the not too distant future would come as a complete surprise to you?

wraith

Simply to test the bull case. So what do you think the cash balance will be at the end of Q1? LK is suggesting that it will be $2.6m. I’m suggesting that that is wishful thinking / share promotion.

wraith

But you need to keep your eye on them - they may turn out not to be as highly skilled as you thought. Stay objective.

petersalkeld

Interesting quote in there:

“CERP can afford to take their time and build up the cash balance”

The writer maybe didn’t read the last update from which the height of LK’s ambitions for Q1 seems to be ending it with the same cash balance that it began with (he’ll be lucky). But it is an interesting thought. In the absence of a Predator windfall (WTI is not making that any more likely) or some giveaway deal with a partner, LK could kick the SWP funding can down the road a bit. He has most recently talked about drilling starting in H2. LK does try to meet the letter of his targets, if not the spirit of them.

Hogmanay spud, anyone?

MrMagoo31

“with the first well potentially being drilled, subject to satisfactory technical analysis, in the first half of 2019”

Interestingly the latest RNS said:

“with commencement of drilling activities planned for mid-2019 onwards”

and more recently the valuethemarkets article told us that:

“He expects the first of these to spud in H2 2019.”

There’s a trajectory forming here. Q4 anyone?

rxdav

WTI is a bit of a wildcard here - you can see what a political football it is. I wouldn’t try to predict where it might go in the short to medium term, although I am pretty sure that it will have its day in the sun at some point in the next 3-4 years (and have placed my bets accordingly). If WTI was to slip back below $50 in the near future you would probably get your 2.2p. Also, the sp could well spike down when LK finally has to come clean about funding the SWP, but you might have to be nimble to grab 2.2p because once LK has bitten that bullet, sentiment should, rightly or wrongly, begin to improve in anticipation of the first well.

Stach

I expect that rxdav would do fine over the longer term even if he bought at the current price but if anyone looking in thinks that this is going to over 5p in short order, as you suggest that, but for those awful MMs, it would, they need to have a proper look at the share price chart and the figures. Something is burning and it’s certainly not shorts. I think it might be cash...

Newbies - cave illos qui in libro dicere, as the Romans never said.

Stach

“MMs are to blame for this”

Either that or it’s the market’s reaction to production setbacks, cash burn, hefty upcoming CAPEX, depressed WTI and an unfriendly fiscal regime. Think about it - if this was suddenly over 5p, as you think it should be, people would be trampled in the rush for the exit. The sentiment just isn’t there to support a price like that. Nothing to do with the MMs.

https://www.trinidadexpress.com/opinion/columnists/energy-sector-competitiveness/article_f393343c-2813-11e9-8b8d-035fe8a09f22.html

have been busy. Do they ever look at the share price chart and consider whether they should have been listening to the skeptics rather than trying to censor them?

Stach

The chances are that it would be another mixed bag so unless he has news about how the SWP is going to be funded he would be better keeping his head below the parapet.

joebop

That’s up to you but I’d rather not see it so I’ll just stick you on filter.

joebop

Why not just point out that their mistake and leave it at that? We all make mistakes. Take that tone with folk and they are more likely to take offence than take your point.

joebop

You may think that you were merely being harsh. Maybe you would be right. Maybe the test should be whether you would speak to a stranger like that face to face. I hope you wouldn’t. I may have seven different identities on here and be in the pay of a consortium of market makers, but the majority of the posters on here are genuine individuals.

joebop

What is gained by being abusive?

Put it another way. The T&T Government is happy to see PI money circulating in its economy and some T&T oiler managements are happy to see PI money circulating in their accounts but it’s all a bit like the Hotel California - you can check out any time you like but you can hardly ever leave, at least with a profit. Investors’ money finds many mouths to feed and very little of it finds its way back to the investors as a reward for the risks that they have taken.

I keep going back to this article from a few months back, which pretty much says it all when it comes to the massive drag on T&T oilers that is SPT. I am not sure that much is going to change in the next few years now, which is a shame because significant SPT reform would be a bonanza for T&T oilers and would quickly generate more revenue for the T&T Government than it lost. As is often noted on here, T&T at least appears to be politically stable. However the T&T Government seem to be financially inept (Petrotrin etc.) and unwilling to do anything that is perceived as business friendly even when it is clear that their base will benefit in the longer term. In this respect they could do with being a little further away from Venezuela. Short term perceptions are preveventing long term correction.

https://energynow.tt/blog/lack-of-progress-on-spt-reform-is-hampering-investment-in-the-oil-sector

MrMagoo31

That statement really doesn’t apply to the upcoming drilling when you look more closely at what is being targeted at this stage. LK increasingly sounds like an unconvincing salesman.

Rugby2015

“The third and the most important point is the SPT tax is only paid on oil recovered under the IPSC licence”

Sorry, that is just wrong.