Member Info for rossannan

You can’t beat a bit of rampy nonsense. Too much talk about MCAP growth is a bit of a red flag though. It comes back to the difference between growth in the value of the business that you have invested in and growth in the value of your investment.

offerman

But a 1000bopd average? Unlikely, I reckon. The MEEI Bulletin for December, out in the next 2-3 weeks, will provide a small clue as to whether December’s peak production was forced or sustainable.

petersalkeld

Or picking up more in the next placing? How is the SWP going to be funded?

LGO-fan

Makes sense. At least the SWP guarantees newsflow - it is almost a given that oil will be encountered (this is Trinidad) - but the SWP is nevertheless exploration and simply encountering oil not what the CoS is about.

It certainly has to be an improvement on what has gone before.

Garnhiem.

I still have no position but I will let you know if that changes. Folk go through the motions of suggesting that skeptical posters are short and/or in the pay of the MMs but I don’t think they are even convincing themselves. I’m not saying that this won’t fall back towards 2.5p if (I would say “when”) a placing is announced, simply on account of the dilution, but if that placing convinces the market that the SWP is fully funded it could be something a tug of war with the inevitable rampathon. Not a great case for a short, so I’m happy to watch CERP from the sidelines. TRIN looks infinitely solider and TXP looks like much more fun. 2 T&T AIM oilers are arguably enough (but call me once the SWP is credibly funded).

Garnhiem.

Look at the 2016 and 2017 TAQA Bratani accounts on the Companies House website - I think my link expired not long after I posted it.

Bamps21

When it comes to down to it, the points that I am making are as simple as this: how incredibly capital intensive this industry is, how that side of the equation is too easily and too often ignored, how this results in folk deluding themselves and others about the likely return on their investment and how rare it is for any AIM oiler to deliver the kind of exceptional share price appreciation (not just market cap growth) that folk seem to be expecting here.

Bamps21

Feel free to check the figures. Why not applaud LK? He seems like a good guy and was clearly an effective manager. What I am pointing out is that he did not create something out of nothing, he had finance on tap and the oil price was kind to him. Look at the 2016 and 2017 TAQA Bratani accounts (I think my link may now have expired but it’s all available on the Companies House website). Not so cheery and perhaps a demonstration of what an important factor, unsurprisingly, the oil price is.

What I am asking is whether LK has the entrepreneurial skills that CERP arguably needs. What can he do when finance may not be on tap, POO is languishing and there is the ever present temptation of the AIM ATM?

Has his performance so far been exceptional? Yes, there has been some good stuff but you have to admit that he called Goudron wrong. His EOY 2017 high case / low case production projections were not his finest hour.

Interesting to see where TAQA Bratani is now (or at least as of EOY 2017 as per the last published accounts):

https://document-api-images-prod.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/docs/J1Ivuo9jPh8C3HKxhAfn7jMAC_rQDmhYu61sTYZ90j8/application-pdf?X-Amz-Algorithm=AWS4-HMAC-SHA256&X-Amz-Content-Sha256=UNSIGNED-PAYLOAD&X-Amz-Credential=ASIAWRGBDBV3H2AGLYED%2F20190120%2Feu-west-1%2Fs3%2Faws4_request&X-Amz-Date=20190120T120738Z&X-Amz-Expires=60&X-Amz-Security-Token=FQoGZXIvYXdzEDwaDLkQ2NVqWjSnJmIbuiK3AxanTfyMfHjUE0h%2BpuAnvxIZzc9JDApNlUeFSHDw8lwOZLeXNoCyFHxSpzA8DRDtx5J4Nm3a1HwOWX3gZlBd4BK7WyGgiip1Ur90plCvG%2For6ruzcK4CyDtQVjIo1G8Jn8rqR7Ja5MN0hw1AWQrTFjOr1WVplXzopbVuOa1dyaBbnFHdLw%2BQPf%2FlKym6UvTBMOWeKxaPLJirL%2FykIYtyEinEN5KYp%2B7fD1gXvISnCWiJBmBiNsHf7XJ%2B%2FAuN0l2IqtoqDHV4KmGYce4qE3O%2Fr2Sx5sa9uM%2BBrjhO0H8MQBIczUGBgUiSVuFHebMOT3%2BPQv1%2BSmk0ku%2BF9BzRz9unuOIZC1YtLHlSIUGNFjl4i0HPW8%2FK9%2B1JTsX58njnX%2BimXRDCIbdvJOGMAlm3P9XY6FtNqKqMNYciuRlmcNP%2FblMfPces8auWJzgg6hfpXkBLoWgYKqE0E0tV8oYfuVZni3wfCYD33LzDm%2Bes%2Bqxtu%2BpVQ%2BvynweryLN9hImErNf3FaTLrmF9rwzuZIDtT1WpkP7fDQcOXayvRgTYTGQ6F9hZDulcICoJlE8iVYvxbaAa1d5DG6gyauMox4%2BR4gU%3D&X-Amz-SignedHeaders=host&X-Amz-Signature=fffa3562dce261c5a2ecd95c0a1b0cc299fe5c330c24b74c15d178b9f7d03700

LK timed his exit well.

LGO-fan

Or, put it another way, anything else looks pretty unrealistic. CERP shares don’t give you nearly as much firepower as a bottomless loan facility.

offerman

M&A is not like some valuable free gift you just pluck off the shelf though. In the past LK has had people with very deep pockets writing cheques for him, something which many folk on here choose to ignore. CERP is an entirely different proposition - does LK have the necessary entrepreneurial skills to deliver shareholder value or is he just what Alan Sugar would describe (and dismiss) as a “corporate man”?

Stockable

Fair point, TRIN reported significant receivables and CERP had that payment for November 2018 oil sales which it included in its cash balance but felt the need to specifically refer to (suggesting that it was due, but had not been received, by EOY).

MrMagoo31

Consider the (strong) possibility that you will be proved wrong on that in the not too distant future.

Bamps21

Acquisition after acquisition all paid for in shares can often end badly.

Garnhiem.

What’s Range got to do with it?

HH

Guess again.

Garnhiem.

“The GY-677 successful perforation in the Goudron-Mayaro sands in December 2018 added instantaneous oil rates of over 70 bopd.”

That quote sent a shiver down my spine. Who does that kind of first spurt reporting remind you of?

Garnhiem.

That is how it is worded in the Key Highlights section.

In your recent update you reported that “average production was adversely affected by extreme weather conditions, with record rainfall and extensive flooding witnessed during the period, severely hampering both routine operations and incremental well work.” However the MEEI Bulletins for October and November suggest no significant decline in average production from your IPSC assets. Could you be more specific about where and over what period the weather conditions had this adverse effect?

I will report back in the unlikely event that I get an answer.