Member Info for rossannan

Bamps21

It’s not really going to produce the fighting fund that he needs for the SWP though, or at least not for a mid-year start, is it?

Looking at other oilers, this looks like it is more than just Westminster.

Bamps21

“Looks like Snowcap will be used to fund the SWP drill”

It will have to start doing a lot better than 70bopd then.

Garnhiem.

LK was clear that the weather was the cause of the significant drop in average production and yet there is no corresponding drop in production in IPSC column of the MEEI Bulletin to 30 November, where the vast majority of the production comes from CERP’s IPSC assets, and there is nothing in the update RNS to suggest that the weather singled out the non-IPSC assets for special attention. That is the riddle. You can try to answer it or you can start a different conversation.

Still no answer to the riddle - it does look increasingly like LK has spun the impact of the weather to mask other reasons why production disappointed...

countdemonet

“and plays into the MMs and daytraders who manipulate the share”

That’s an old LGO myth - when the share price isn’t going your way it’s because the market just doesn’t share your view, simple as that. This is at 3p for a reason, WTI being one part of it and the rest being fairly obvious from the recent update.

MrMagoo31

“we are fully funded and in profit”

Now there’s a red rag to a bear if ever there was!

(An alternative to posting about posters and swapping filter tips)

“Average production was adversely affected by extreme weather conditions, with record rainfall and extensive flooding witnessed during the period, severely hampering both routine operations and incremental well work.”

We know when and where this weather event happened, but we also have the MEEI Bulletins for October and November and can see little evidence of it having had any impact on the IPSC part of the CERP portfolio. Are we to conclude then that the weather almost shut down South Erin for two months? That is what the arithmetic is suggesting. Then why did LK not highlight this, explain why South Erin struggled in particular and explain what will be done to make it less vulnerable in future? Or has the impact of the weather been spun to mask disappointments elsewhere?

LGO-fan

This we know. What’s your point?

*contract

Or just the drilling contact?

Or a partnership?

LGO-fan

A placing?

HH

Seriously, why did CERP make such a meal of the weather when neither TRIN nor TXP even mentioned it?

MrMagoo31

If they talk no sense, why does the market appear to agree with their more cautious take on CERP?

HH

But why did neither TRIN nor TXP cite weather issues in their updates, particularly TXP, whose update was the less impressive of the two?

TXP has a couple of blocks that are SWP adjacent if not in fact SWP - WD-4 and WD-8 where they are targeting the same formations that CERP will be targeting later this year. TXP’s production from these blocks is worth studying. From TXP’s update today:

“During the fourth quarter of 2018, we successfully drilled two wells on the WD-8 block and one well on our WD-4 property.
The FR-1800 well was spud on November 1, 2018 and reached a total depth of 4,700 feet. Wireline logs indicated the presence of approximately 588 feet of net oil pay, 456 feet in the Forest formation and 132 feet in the Cruse formation. The well was completed on December 21, 2018.
The FR-1801 well was spud on December 10, 2018 and reached a total depth of 4,564 feet on December 23, 2018. Wireline logs indicated the presence of approximately 306 feet of net oil pay, with 188 feet in the Forest formation and 118 feet in the Cruse formation. The well was completed on January 4, 2019.
Both wells are currently flowing up casing at a combined average field estimated production rate of approximately 242 bbls/d (based on the previous seven days to January 13, 2019). The Company anticipates that initial flush production rates will likely decrease, with the wells being placed on pump during the first quarter of 2019.
PS-605 was spud on our WD-4 block on December 4, 2018, reaching a total depth of 7,250 feet on December 27, 2018. Wireline logs indicated the presence of approximately 608 feet of net oil pay, with 461 feet in the Forest formation and 147 feet noted in the Cruse formation. Completion operations have commenced on PS-605 and are expected to be concluded by early February.”

offerman

“some dire ones who want nothing but failure for CERP and it's investors”

or some posters who simply inject a note of caution and realism? We are not saying that CERP is going to zero or is a fraud, in fact I have often said that over the longer term it will likely be a winning investment. The problem is that anyone who challenges any of the rampy nonsense that can appear on here is immediately branded a doomsayer.

countdemonet

I said:

“It will be interesting to see from the forthcoming TRIN and TXP updates the extent to which the weather was an issue for their onshore production.”

These have now dropped. NOTHING about the weather. What is going on?

Ignore the “trolls” at your peril.

Largely superseded now:

http://www.energy.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/MEEI-Consolidated-Monthly-Bulletins-January-November-2018.pdf

but on the face of it the IPSC assets would not appear to be where the weather did any real damage in Q3, which is a little strange, although we will need to see the December Bulletin in a month’s time to be sure that the problems really were elsewhere.

It will be interesting to see from the forthcoming TRIN and TXP updates the extent to which the weather was an issue for their onshore production.