Member Info for rossannan

faz7475

There’s no avoiding them, I’m afraid. But what are they actually doing? Calling CERP down to zero or calling it a fraud? No, simply sounding a note of caution and injecting a little realism. Why does this BB have such a problem with that?

That’s interesting, just logged in to PrimaryBid but I couldn’t find that facility that they used to have which allowed PIs to dangle money in front of companies - unless I am mistaken it appears to have been withdrawn. Shame.

CaptainSwag

It’s a thought - if all the PIs on the list got on to PrimaryBid and offered to take another 20% of what they have already at 2.75p that would be a chunky sum - LK would bite their hands off, I’ll bet! Even I would struggle to describe that as a dilutive placing.

CaptainSwag

A placing to fund the SWP could throw up a good buying opportunity, as could any excursion significantly below 3p, but the placing would be the better opportunity of the two because you would then be buying in the knowledge that it would be several months before the next one! Always keep one eye on WTI though as $52 is not what the doctor ordered. Limited BB time this week and possibly early next week but it will be interesting to see where this ends up in the aftermath of that update.

Bamps21

“You won't see these levels of share price for much longer”

Careful what you wish for!

*here and now

ColonelDrake

LK keeps dangling acquisitions in front of the LTHs but he is arguably just encouraging a “something will turn up” mentality that sidelines proper analysis of what he is doing in the here in now. Any deal will have to be assessed on its merits if and when it is announced. Will the likely dilution be worth it? Will it bring in much needed cash or just add more CAPEX to the list? As CERP really only has its paper to offer, it is not in a strong bargaining position.

CaptainSwag

Fair comment. LK still has to learn how to underpromise and overdeliver. The rosy scenarios he has been painting have become less and less convincing. Also, folk on here need to realise that most of LK’s initiatives across most of CERP’s assets are not going to have optimal outcomes (and stop kidding themselves and each other that they will).

It is about managing expectations. You are right - CERP does have huge potential and the chances are that those who were backing LK on Day 1 will have done very nicely by Day 1 + 5 years, maybe even by Day 1 + 3 years.

LK probably still has enough cash in the bank to get CERP over time to the point where its cash burn is finally eliminated and it is profitable but he does not appear to have enough to fund his initial foray into the SWP - unless he significantly scales back his ambitions in some way.

There is significant potential for a rampthon and share price appreciation once CERP’s initial foray into the SWP is credibly funded though. I suspect that on here the fact that, at this stage, CERP is not going “deep” will be glossed over, bopd figures much in excess of what can realistically be expected from the targeted formations will be touted and CoS percentages will hardly be mentioned. Anyone putting their money on the table will want to think carefully about whether this presents an investment opportunity or a trading opportunity.

The problem is that to get this rampathon to the starting line, CERP’s initial foray into the SWP has to be credibly funded...

MrMagoo31

Good guess!

MrMagoo31

“from the fact the are hitting 1000 bopd + from the now”

Now that is an interesting question - what will CERP’s Jan 19 average production be? Perhaps not the sustainable 1000bopd + that you are implying. LK’s MO of having “peak” targets is starting to looking a little cynical to me, but if enough folk believe that 1000bopd is the new normal it will certainly be easier to get, say, a placing away.

MrMagoo31

Could indeed be a good year, but let’s see how the SWP is going to be paid for first.

Garnhiem.

A sidetrack from FRM-1?

Garnhiem.

What existing well? There are no existing wells. We are talking about exploration.

LGO-fan

The proof of the pudding is in the eating. No-one has won anything yet. And talking of EOR, will this quarter be when CERP finally begins to feel the benefit of Gourdron WF or when Gourdron WF begins to be quietly buried? It is easy to paint rosy scenarios, but other scenarios are available (and, on past performance, more likely).

Garnhiem.

Still sounds like wishful thinking and that for now the finanancing of the SWP is based on “what ifs”.

Bamps21

“I would expect that drilling fund to increase considerably.”

Quarter after quarter that drilling fund has decreased considerably, in the last quarter by $1.12m. Even at current WTI LK may nevertheless be able to reduce the cash burn in Q1, but is it not just wishful thinking to imagine, in the absence of skyrocketing WTI, that that drilling fund will have increased considerably by the end of H1?

MrMagoo31

No, you merely hope that they will be fully funded when the time comes. They currently have only $2.6million in the bank.

MrMagoo31

Not this year though. You need to look at the formations they are actually targeting. They are not going after the big prize (yet). Success this year could though fund going after the big prize down the road. First of all they have, of course, to fund this year’s activities...

LGO-fan

LGO-fan

First of all, you are a betting man - you’re in CERP!

A windfall from Predator? It’s a possibility, but not more than that. Can LK afford to wait for Predator’s decision before doing a placing? Not if he wants to hit his timescale.

HH

Not a very businesslike approach though - things are normally more compartmentalised than that.