Member Info for rossannan

ColonelDrake

I have no idea why a CEO like LK would allow such a facility/safety net to expire when he knows he has such a capital requirement later in the year. I suspect that he has not been smart in this respect and I would not take his decision a sign of confidence in “alternative arrangements” materialising but rather as a sign of foolhardiness or possibly of a less friendly attitude to shareholders than they expect - time will tell whether he ends up at the AIM ATM (I think he will).

CERP is certainly not going to snap back until LK comes clean on funding the SWP, because the current story just isn’t plausible. Once he does come clean though, the way will be clear for an old school rampathon!

ColonelDrake

Yes, it expired in early January.

rxdav

They have just fallen into the same trap that we have all fallen into at some point - being an LTH can morph into Stockholm Syndrome before you know it and your objectivity goes out the window. But when the figures suggest one thing and the AIM CEO suggests another, it usually pays to bet on the figures.

rxdav

I think that one problem LK currently has with making such an organic funding commitment is that it would leave the coffers pretty much empty. Nothing for the next drill or for anything that might arise operationally - basically he would be taking a massive gamble on one exploratory well. It is difficult not to hit oil in Trinidad, but commercial oil? Pin LK down and he would have to admit that the CoS is an awful lot less than 100%.

countdemonet

We wish we got paid! Worth it though if we’ve managed to scare off a few potential newbies along the way - just look at the share price chart for the last 12 months.

Now, who’s on first?

offerman

“I've put absolutely everything into this company”

Is that ever wise? Has all the encouragement that you have had from rampers like Edgein on ADVFN and the usual suspects on here paid off for you? There has certainly been a change in sentiment here this week, perhaps helped by the strong buying on the recent dip and WTI moving towards the top of its recent range, but nothing has changed at CERP itself - it still faces the same issues and the same questions remain unanswered. If the share price continues upwards, consider the lack of firm foundations for such a move and, if you find that your most recent purchases are in profit, maybe consider the benefits of a de-risk. You would still have plenty of exposure to any further upside.

Garnhiem.

Good luck with that!

jeffry

Whether you will ever be right depends on what you mean by “soon”...

Rugby2015

“negativity about a possible placing, or a partnership on unfavourable terms etc - there is absolutely no evidence to support this at all, just scare mongering!”

Absolutely no evidence, just maths. $2.6m in the bank at the end of 2018. LK talks about covering costs in Q1, so $2.6m in the bank at the end of Q1 (at best - the reality may be different). $2-4m per SWP well. How can LK embark on even one SWP drill without leaving only fumes in the tank? Is CERP suddenly going to make millions in Q2?

petersalkeld

While you are at it, ask him to arrange for it all to be paid for. Otherwise this may prove to be a case of premature rampathon...

LLL

One way of avoiding the resumption of normal service would be for LK to tap into the high level of retail conviction here to fund his initial foray into the SWP. A cheeky one for five with an excess facility would arguably get his first two SWP drills in the bag while protecting shareholder value. I have suggested this at various price levels on the way down from 5p. It really is time that LK stopped kidding the market (and possibly himself?) about funding the SWP.

...Admin do not like Conway Twitty!

No. I sometimes wonder if this could go below 2p but there is so much retail conviction that even if LK announces that Goudron has started to suck the oil out of the tanks and back into the ground, it will probably stay above 2p (Goudron certainly does suck, but not in that sense). As you suggest, the SWP would be a great deflection/distraction for the lack of progress elsewhere. Or Conway Twitty.

rxdav

I think you have already answered the question. I think LK was managing expectations in this respect when he said that going forward it would all be about profitability of production rather than total production. You have to ask how profitable Q1 production could in any event be at current WTI (not profitable, I suspect).

capitalidea

Goudron and Innis-Trinity provide the bulk of the production figure in the column in Table 1A headed “HPCL (IPSC)”. Horseyhead can probably give you a better idea of how that figure breaks down.

countdemonet

It is not the MMs that are doing this to CERP (they are bookies, not gamblers). The market just doesn’t like CERP, for good reason. This is largely self inflicted - if you don’t like it, blame LK.

http://www.energy.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/MEEI-Consolidated-Monthly-Bulletins-January-December-2018.pdf

Looking at the December figures the IPSC assets continued to disappoint even though the worst of the weather was then over.

That late December Group production figure of 1,021 bopd looks more and more like an unsustainable outlier obtained by forcing a spurt mainly out of the non-IPSC assets. Other interpretations are available but the Q1 update will confirm which one is correct.

Jon009

That is an old article which is not referring to Rex getting out of CERP - read the article and the RNS again. You are not alone in getting the wrong end of the stick as TR-1s are confusing. If you really want the selling pressure to abate, get LK to come clean about funding the SWP (there might be a short burst of selling but sentiment would quickly improve thereafter).

I was having a look over there. Is is just me or have they not got the wrong end of the stick regarding those RNSs?

Predator has the right until 30 June 2019 to purchase FRAM. Is it going to happen? Is LK banking on it happening? It will be interesting to see whether there is any hint in next week’s MEEI Bulletin of a pre-CO2 turnaround at TI in December. Will it be clear by 30 June 2019 whether the CO2 is adding value? Predator had better get a move on.

mossma

More a reassessment than a discovery.