Member Info for rossannan

The lesson that NR taught, which sadly seems appropriate for dealing with his successor, is to assume that anything an AIM oiler CEO says outwith an RNS (and sometimes in an RNS) should be treated as being no more than aspirational, at least until figures emerge which demonstrate that it has a firmer foundation. The CERP share price chart and continuing share price weakness confirms this. Time for LK to stop painting rosy scenarios and come clean about how he is really going to fund the SWP - that exercise could mark a real turning point here.

offerman

Show us the money!

neon

Did Camarco actually say “expect newsflow to start shortly” or is that your interpretation of whatever it is that they did say?

HH

That would be an ideal solution but it would be hard enough in this environment to find a lender willing to provide such a facility for development drilling, let alone exploration. The chances are that it will be the shareholders who take one for the team.

rodders123

I think folk got a little carried away with that one in the way that folk do with this company, perhaps for the very reason that the reality of the famous “deep wedge” was never tested. The reality would likely have been the same pressure problems that bedevil the rest of Goudron - the fact that LK has allocated his capital elsewhere suggests that he is similarly skeptical about the “deep wedge”. Fair play to LK, he has made some reasonable calls and will not just keep pouring ridiculous amounts of capital down the drain in the way that some would - he seemed to have Spain’s number from Day One and he does now seem to have Goudron’s number, albeit that the penny took a lot longer to drop in that case.

MrMagoo31

“we are getting 1000bopd”

That is just wishful thinking. The available evidence suggests that December’s 1021bopd was a forced spike.

Scarface72

“its whatever the MM's want it to be”

That is not how MMs work.

Fishsheds

Now that sentiment seems to have well and truly gone this starts to look more realistically valued. All that is needed now for a turning point is visibility on funding the SWP.

ColonelSwag

First, congratulations on your promotion! Were you briefly MajorSwag or did you leapfrog that one?

For the avoidance of doubt I have no desire to see offerman or anyone else lose money here, quite the opposite. Sometimes though you have to sell, or at least reduce your exposure, to achieve that. Rampers like Edgein on ADVFN who seem happy to see folk like offerman believing the rosy scenarios and investing so heavily in something as fundamentally risky as CERP maybe need to have a word with themselves though. Still, CERP is now probably not far off the too late to sell zone. The read across from TXP reinforces the likelihood of a placing but while TXP has slipped today and may not sparkle in the short term, I suspect it will have made good progress by the time its big drill spuds in June. In the same way, the sooner LK gets real about funding the SWP, the sooner the excitement, justified or not, can start to build. Even if CERP’s Q1 update is a bit disappointing, it won’t then matter.

offerman

Looking for these kind of alternative explanations for why a share price is not going in the direction you want is an unhealthy way of thinking about shares. You are better to ask yourself what it is that the market is seeing that you are missing. If you want you can stick to blaming the usual suspects - big sellers, evil MMs, even mythical paid derampers, whatever. But the real explanation is a lot more straightforward. Have a look at TXP’s RNS today and have a think about the read across for CERP.

neon

You are making the mistake of trying to explain away points that you don’t agree with or find uncomfortable by suggesting that I am putting them forward as part of some attempted manipulation or the like (implying that I don’t really believe them and that they are just a means to an end). As I said though, I am just looking at the available information to assess objectively what is most likely to happen at CERP in the short term.

neon

You are not seeing it at all. I am just looking at the available information to assess objectively what is most likely to happen at CERP in the short term. As I said recently, imagining that what you post on a BB can affect the share price is thinking that borders on the delusional.

“And how often have we seen an AIM CEO rule out a placing only for one to suddenly appear?”

Thank you Paul Baay of TXP for taking the time this morning to illustrate that specific point and generally how marginal it is for oilers in T&T.

HoH

And how often have we seen an AIM CEO rule out a placing only for one to suddenly appear?

HoH

More fool him, I suspect.

Jon009

Not sure it is lack of communication as such, more a failure to address the obvious issue of SWP funding. If more shares need to be issued for that they should crack on, then sooner or at least not very much later the upward price breakout will follow.

It's something very personal, a very important thing. Hell! It's a family motto. Are you ready Leo? I wanna make sure you're ready, brother. Here it is: Show me the money. Show! Me! The! Money!

LGO-fan

Looking for alternative explanations bordering on conspiracy theories for why a share price is not going in the direction you want is an unhealthy way of thinking about shares. You are better to ask yourself what it is that the market understands that you don’t. If you want you can stick to blaming the usual suspects - the big seller, evil MMs, mythical paid derampers, whatever. One of my favourites is this idea that skeptical posters are trying to talk the share price down to their chosen entry level. Just think for a moment what a delusional mindset that would be. The fact is that CERP (nee LGO) has been a bit rubbish and continues to be a bit rubbish. With WTI a little firmer though and the SWP supposedly just over the horizon, there is a clear opportunity for a speculative rinse and repeat if LK would just come clean about funding the SWP. That is what I am waiting for, rather than for any particular price. My plan would then be to exit once the local rampers’ game of “spike a newbie” was in full swing. But I am not going to switch a penny out of a share like AMER (a good example of what can be found onshore if you only go deep enough), TRIN, SDX, RKH, HUR or the like to finance such a punt, although I do have some candidates, including TXP.

dnd2136

I wish!

IK

As you suggest, it is all about the story. Maybe not so much about perceived cheapness as about a perception of how easily the story can be sold to the retail fan base, unwary newbies and momentum traders once the initial drills have been credibly funded and are in the diary. Those who have the most unrealistic expectations about the SWP, who confuse the potential of the deeper formations with what the shallower formations (the ones actually being drilled at this stage) have to offer are likely to be the ones left holding the baby in the wake of the rampathon. As Philip Larkin said: “Get out as early as you can...”.