Member Info for rossannan

It's something very personal, a very important thing. Hell! It's a family motto. Are you ready Leo? I wanna make sure you're ready, brother. Here it is: Show me the money. Show! Me! The! Money!

LGO-fan

Looking for alternative explanations bordering on conspiracy theories for why a share price is not going in the direction you want is an unhealthy way of thinking about shares. You are better to ask yourself what it is that the market understands that you don’t. If you want you can stick to blaming the usual suspects - the big seller, evil MMs, mythical paid derampers, whatever. One of my favourites is this idea that skeptical posters are trying to talk the share price down to their chosen entry level. Just think for a moment what a delusional mindset that would be. The fact is that CERP (nee LGO) has been a bit rubbish and continues to be a bit rubbish. With WTI a little firmer though and the SWP supposedly just over the horizon, there is a clear opportunity for a speculative rinse and repeat if LK would just come clean about funding the SWP. That is what I am waiting for, rather than for any particular price. My plan would then be to exit once the local rampers’ game of “spike a newbie” was in full swing. But I am not going to switch a penny out of a share like AMER (a good example of what can be found onshore if you only go deep enough), TRIN, SDX, RKH, HUR or the like to finance such a punt, although I do have some candidates, including TXP.

dnd2136

I wish!

IK

As you suggest, it is all about the story. Maybe not so much about perceived cheapness as about a perception of how easily the story can be sold to the retail fan base, unwary newbies and momentum traders once the initial drills have been credibly funded and are in the diary. Those who have the most unrealistic expectations about the SWP, who confuse the potential of the deeper formations with what the shallower formations (the ones actually being drilled at this stage) have to offer are likely to be the ones left holding the baby in the wake of the rampathon. As Philip Larkin said: “Get out as early as you can...”.

HH

TRIN is a good one to nod off to - set the alarm for 2022. CERP? Sleep with one eye open, gripping your pillow tight...

HH

And yet TRIN will report a profit for 2018 and remain an investable company while CERP remains a punt. There is nothing wrong with having a punt, of course, and a rising WTI floats all boats, but you really need to know where the exits are when you are having a punt.

cperkin

Compare TRIN, for example. About twice the MCAP but at least 3 (but in fact probably 4) times the production, about 7 times as much cash in the bank and targeting 7500bopd in the medium term. I find it very hard indeed to imagine a scenario in which I would switch out of TRIN to invest in CERP. Once it becomes clear how the SWP is going to be funded though I could conceivably switch out of something else (TXP for example) to invest in CERP, even if only to take advantage of the inevitable rampathon.

dnd2136

Not really, even if it makes it to a £500m MCAP many more shares will inevitably be issued along the way.

rxdav

There is nothing new under the sun:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-47198357

Cheers!

rxdav

As I’ve said before it’s more a scenario than a price that would tempt me to switch out of one of my other oilers. If I miss my chance, so be it.

Have a good one too.

rxdav

Good luck - hard not to see that working out for you over the longer term, whatever happens in the short term.

Garnhiem.

I’m here to discuss CERP, not to swap insults with complete strangers. If you want to discuss CERP that’s fine, but if you just want to lob insults from behind the safety of your avatar I will put you on filter. Your choice.

Garnhiem.

Really?

Garnhiem.

Exactly. It really does make you wonder whether LK cares as much about shareholder value as he would have you believe.

Garnhiem.

As I said before, partnering at this stage of the game was not the original plan. The original plan was “to drill, from our own cash resources, the most attractive exploration/appraisal wells in our under-explored SWP acreage”. Any such partnership will be a product of CERP’s failure to generate the necessary cash resources and will therefore have to be on giveaway terms, as opposed to the kind of partnership that CERP could have negotiated had it struck lucky under its own steam first. Not great - a raise is arguably a better alternative, particularly if it is a raise along the lines that I have suggested. That is why I think that a raise is more likely than not.

HH

There’s a big difference between a standard AIM placing (here that would probably mean bigmj and the usual suspects - though Schroders may have had enough by now) and a 1 for 5 with an excess facility. Which would you rather have? I would argue that a 1 for 5 with an excess facility would be a smart move and a real tonic for the troops, since a raise seems to be on the cards anyway. Do you genuinely believe that a raise (to fund the SWP) will be avoided?

While everyone is still reeling from the shock of an AIM oiler announcing a placing, it is worth having a look at the ANGS announcement:

“We recognise that the placing price is significantly below historic share price levels and, whilst we did consider forms of pre-emptive issues to Shareholders which unfortunately haven't been possible within the timeframe...”.

LK is not (yet) under any significant time pressure. So why not a cheeky one for five at, say, 2.2p with an excess facility so that LK can firm up on dates and rig contracts for the SWP? I bet this would be over 4p in no time at all. Waiting for an unlikely Predator windfall or to be forced into a giveaway partnership seems, as I said before, either foolhardy or a sign of a less friendly attitude to shareholders than they expect. If LK does not seize the initiative the SWP will likely slip further and further into H2...

and of course CERP does not even have the rights to it...

offerman

“There has been a large consistent seller for just over a year now.
Relentless selling. No holdings RNS though.”

No holdings RNS suggests that there has not in fact been a large consistent seller, just consistent selling. CERP is its own worst enemy: the trajectory of its share price chart is the market’s reaction to production disappointments, related cash burn and various things that LK has done/not done. Not to a big seller, not to the MMs, not to any of the usual suspects. LK really needs to have a word with himself - his PI LTHs may still be buying his rosy scenarios but the market is selling. Time for him to come clean about funding the SWP - bite that bullet and the rampathon may well start to get some traction.

Garnhiem.

“You should feel obliged to find excuses Ross.”