Member Info for rossannan

That is a strange non-news RNS. It almost harks back to the NR days, when every step along the way, even tree felling, was RNSed. I wonder if this signals a change of tack by LK when it comes to “news” flow. Perhaps he has a placing to get away.

LGO-fan

Mental illness? Really? I didn’t think you were that kind of poster.

countdemonet

That old chestnut! Every time someone pops up with a skeptical (or even just balanced) view they are labelled as one of the skeptics’ many avatars. Consider the possibility that the skeptics are all just PIs like yourself who have never met and probably never will and that the only thing that they have in common is that they are taking Leo Koot’s narrative with a pinch of salt.

Bespoke

The January figure is imminent and will be more instructive.

Rugby2015

By the start of H2 is H1. LK needs to get his story straight. A placing is certainly not guaranteed - an alternative might be to push the drill a lot further into H2 than the slippage that you are talking about - but is it a “really unlikely possibility”? I can still smell the cash burning and am not expecting the fire to be extinguished in Q1. How about you just have to send me one bottle if I win and I still have to send you six if you win?

trickydickie

I post on the TXP ADVFN BB (most of my posting is done on ADVFN). I hardly ever post on any other LSE BB and, yes, I am going to continually post my “garbage” here. We can revisit the definition of “garbage” when (not if, IMO) the placing RNS drops.

countdemonet

Nothing malicious about it, it is just blindingly obvious that a pre-drill placing is (a lot) more likely than not. The share price chart indicates that the market agrees with this. This placing doesn’t have to be a bad thing - once the local rampers get over the shock of the “trolls” being right yet again, the placing could mark a real turning point. I would certainly consider buying CERP at that point because it seems to me that visibility on funding the SWP is what the market is waiting for. For the moment though, the money that I might have put into CERP has gone into TXP because they have given up on their search for a partner and bitten the placing bullet, very much showing CERP the way.

Rugby2015

In fact, I will bet you six bottles of this excellent brew that CERP will do a raise before spudding that first SWP drill:

https://www.innisandgunn.com/item/49/InnisGunn/The-Original.html

Deal?

misbehaving and probably helping to nail on CERP’s placing, I suspect. It will be interesting to see where TXP (11-12p, placing done and dusted) and CERP (2.3-2.5p, no sign of it yet) go from here as their spud dates (“June” and “H2” respectively) approach.

Note that the one that has done its placing is able to be a little more specific about its spud date...

MrMagoo31

Careful what you wish for - it might well involve CERP relinquishing some value.

shibs

Good question. The local rampers will have their own answer but you could consider having a punt on TXP’s forthcoming gas well (June) where there is a lot more information and visible funding - at CERP’s current rate of progress you may even be able to revisit it afterwards, or not need to. If you are more risk averse and looking for something steadier and less exciting, you could always bottom drawer some TRIN. Whatever you do though, DYOR and be wary of posters on BBs!

neon

You are conflating market abuse and shorting. Market abuse can happen on both the long and the short tack. As I said, what fundamentally sound company has ever been brought down by shorters?

SoupChicken

Spot on, particularly a market like AIM. What fundamentally sound company has ever been brought down by shorters? Shorters often have real insights - given the risks that they take they would be mad just to take a punt on sentiment (which is what far too many PIs on the other side of the equation do). Look, for example, at the outfit who shorted PANR back in the day when Malcy was singing its praises and at the catalogue of operational disappointments that ensued.

Vmax

Interesting analysis here of the risks associated with exploration wells:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/columns/sp-angel/30687/monthly-roundup---exploration---not-just-geological-risk-30687.html

You could argue that this makes LK’s presentation of what the SWP has to offer seem more aspirational than analytical. I suppose that is why I like TRIN so much - its proposed Great Leap Forward is based on development rather than exploration, albeit that that development is some way down the line and, being offshore, will require some hefty CAPEX.

You could even argue that the opportunity that a company like CERP presents is to buy the anticipation of the exploration result and then sell on or immediately before the news, accepting that on balance that result is much more likely than not to disappoint and playing the percentages accordingly. The problem is that until there is visibility on funding the SWP, there is nothing to buy into.

So why haven’t oil companies been all over the SWP before now?

offerman

So far that statement does not measure up well against what has actually happened. Where is the promised accretion?

what is it about Daniel *****’s surname that is so rude? I guess it must be modern slang for something unpleasant. I feel old!

SRS69

Not holding my breath because the T&T Government just don’t seem to understand how a little fiscal loosening now could increase their tax take later. Still, recent RNSs from TRIN and TXP have sent a clear signal that, if they have to, they will withhold CAPEX until the environment improves.

in T&T oilers across the board at the moment. SPT makes them relatively marginal propositions at current WTI, even my beloved TRIN. If WTI can make it back over $60 the market may begin to pay them a little more attention.

faz7475

Long, long time since EOG was on my watchlist so no view, I’m afraid. I like AMER and HUR as candidates for short term appreciation and TRIN for the longer term. As I said even CERP will eventually have its day (unless that is the day that never comes).