Member Info for rossannan

LLL

Someone once asked how much Predator is paying for CO2, explaining that this can impact in a big way on lifting costs and quoting what Krishna Persad has to say on the matter:

"Trinidad is different in that it takes 3 mcf-8 mcf [84,960-226,560 cubic metres] of CO2 for each barrel of oil to come out; that is an average of 5 mcf [141,600 cubic metres]. If CO2 is USD 2 per 1 mcf [28,320 cubic metres], it adds about USD 10 to your barrel cost. If it is USD 3 per mcf, then it would be about 25% of your barrel cost."

LLL

What though is your argument why the asset is “a lot more valuable than the $4.2M that PRD would have to pay CERP to acquire the interest.” Is it purely your optimism about the CO2 pilot?

LLL

“The asset is arguably a lot more valuable than the $4.2M that PRD would have to pay CERP to acquire the interest.”

How would you argue that?

LLL

A marriage made in heaven? There wouldn’t be much in the joint account...

neon

This is the problem. As things stand CERP is only good for trading - something that I suspect will become even more clear after the next update. Will average Q1 production be over 1000bopd as some have suggested on here? Will there still be as much as $2.6M in the bank as LK suggested in the last update? These are the key questions. If average production is less than 1000bopd but there has been no cash burn then it will be fair play to LK for successfully high grading CERP’s production, but if the Q4 peak is not the new normal and there has still been cash burn, watch out...

Irene

Sadly Admin doesn’t like reposting so when the local rampers have one of your posts taken down you can try reposting but it probably won’t last long.

wraith

You talked about the “capable hands” of CERP’s management. That was what I was wishing you good luck with.

wraith

Good luck with that.

wraith

How do you think that first SWP drill is going to be paid for?

wraith

What will you be looking for then in the update then to confirm that your decision to invest was correct?

emilyt16

You are saying:

“Cos..70% +++ nailed on imo.”

“It's more about how many bopd the well/wells will add.”

What percentage of your portfolio do you have invested here?

neon

How does that follow? So has all that rusting equipment in Spain been decanted to Morocco to make the money for CERP there that it didn’t manage to make for it in Spain?

AMER provides a good example of the risks associated with exploration. The SWP is exploration (not appraisal, not development). What if the first SWP well does not hit commercial oil? What if the second doesn’t either?

Unlikely? Why don’t you ask LK if he is willing to share CERP’s internal CoS estimates for their SWP drill targets?

Bespoke

I can live without a CERP fund!

forecasts are not exactly flooding in. It is interesting to note how talk of figures sets the local rampers, with the honourable exception of Rugby2015, running in the opposite direction.

Stach

“I expect it to be so good that our share price here will revert to 6-7p/share.”

What in the update will be good enough to cause that? Production? The end Q1 cash balance? Let’s say that the end Q1 cash balance hits the $2.6M that LK appears to be forecasting and that production is around the 1000bopd you are talking about. If the market awarded CERP a share price of 6-7p for that it would be putting CERP on the same MCAP as TRIN with over 3000bopd of production, over $15M in the bank and no debt.

What is it about CERP that generates such peculiarly unrealistic expectations? Or is this just all about PIs betting on what other PIs are going to do and taking silly risks in the process?

LGO-fan

So what end Q1 cash balance are you predicting?

wraith

My reading of that, because LK only talks about being operationally cash flow positive (as opposed to being cash flow positive at Group level), is that he is forecasting no cash burn in Q1. In other words, all things being equal, he is forecasting an end Q1 cash balance of $2.6million. Agreed?

I expect him to miss this forecast with an end Q1 cash balance of $2.2million while Rugby2015 expects him to exceed it with an end Q1 cash balance of $3million. Do you have a prediction?

Rugby2015

Game on!

Rugby2015

It might be more fun to predict the end Q1 cash balance. Will it be $2.6M again or more or less? I will start the ball rolling with $2.2M.