Member Info for rossannan

MrMagoo31

So are you going to share the research that gives you so much confidence in CERP?

MrMagoo31

The problem with a lot of the research that folk on here do is that it just involves trawling for anything that confirms their already positive view. The challenge is to make a genuinely objective assessment of the pros and cons and not to take everything offered up in share promotion exercises at face value.

Are you trying to be genuinely objective or are you just one of those posters for whom CERP and Leo Koot can do no wrong and who bridles at anything that is less than 100% ramp? Do you want to share your research?

MrMagoo31

Can you honestly not understand why folk might consider selling on the back of that update, even at 2.75p?

offerman

Your tireless optimism is enviable, but is it well founded? CERP, like almost any AIM oiler, could in theory come good at some point. But, after that latest update, do you not find it hard to see why it should come good anytime soon?

A range of opinions are available but you need to be wary of BB rampers who tell folk what they want to hear all day long despite having posting histories which suggest that they are less than reliable guides to CERP’s financial/production/share price trajectory.

There is an endless supply of shiny possibilities that BB rampers (and Leo Koot) can dangle in front of LTHs and potential investors. Look though at what seems (to me at least) to have fallen by the wayside so far. Goudron well stimulation. Spain. Goudron waterflood. Snowcap. Possibly the whole Steeldrum deal - look at Q1 production and, while you are at it, ask yourself whether T-I CO2 will avoid joining the list of disappointments.

Then we come to the SWP. Some insightful posts by Garnhiem. on here have highlighted the distinct possibility that the SWP campaign will kick off in Q3 with something along the lines of Bonasse well deepening rather than the (much more expensive but arguably much more exciting) virgin field exploration that was previously mooted. That is what cash burn does for you - you have to cut your cloth - but if Garnhiem. is right many LTHs will be disappointed by this shifting of the goalposts and the further deferral of their gratification.

Of course there is always the possibility of deals. Deals, deals, deals. One in particular now looks probable, not just possible. Will it be a sweetheart deal though? Why should it be? There always has to be something in it for the other party. Some might argue that any deal is better than no deal, but as I have already said you could argue that the jury is still out on the Steeldrum deal even now. And from the sound of the deal that Leo Koot now has in the pipeline, the obvious question is how CERP will finance its minimum work obligations.

I do not have a lot more to say about CERP for now. That latest update made the skeptical case more effectively than I can.

Despite that, HotStockRockets tipped CERP on ShareProphets on Saturday. Maybe this tip and the way that WTI has firmed over the weekend will give investors the chance to take some or all of their money off the table at a decent price when the market reopens. There are no guarantees, but you might not regret some kind of de-risk.

RAMMAN

Check out the TAQA Bratani Limited accounts online at Companies House.

are tipping CERP on ShareProphets today. Don’t know what they are saying as I am not a subscriber. Until we see (a) whether Garnhiem. is right about the SWP possibly kicking off with something along the lines of Bonasse well deeping (rather than the kind of exploration previously mooted) and (b) we see what what is planned in this other country and how it is going to be paid for, I am not sure what more there is to say about CERP. I certainly don’t see the buy case, even sub-3p, but maybe this tip will give some investors the chance to take their money off the table when the market reopens, before the arguably inevitable drift down to 2.5p or less (although I still can’t see this going below 2p).

Garnhiem.

If you are correct and CERP’s first foray into the SWP is to be the deepening of a Bonasse well rather than what people have been led to expect - the exploration of the shallower formations of a potential virgin field - then, as I said, that will be a major and hugely disappointing shifting of the goalposts. I can certainly understand why LK may have decided to go down this route - I have been banging on about CERP’s cash burn and cash position for long enough - but if this is what is happening he has been less than up front about it and we have had to join quite a few dots to get the picture. Time will tell if you are correct but shame on LK for his smoke and mirrors if you are.

Garnhiem.

I am just trying to encourage you to look at all this more objectively. There is a tendency on this BB to take whatever scraps of information LK provides and frame uber positive hypotheses around them. All your SWP cut and pastes certainly make it sound intriguing, but asking what CERP’s interests in the SWP would actually fetch on the open market is entirely valid. Are you going to have a stab at a figure?

If LK’s initial foray into the SWP turns out to be deepening a Bonasse well, something mooted previously, rather than the promised exploration, that would be a major and hugely disappointing shifting of the goalposts.

Garnhiem.

How deep do you think $500,000 will get you?

Garnhiem.

I am simply making the point that what you are cutting and pasting is all academic if the funding isn’t there and the fiscal regime is prohibitively punitive. Whatever LK now has planned for his initial foray into the SWP, he has clearly shifted the goalposts on this front too.

As does “The first planned well targets a Middle Cruse reservoir quality test within the area covered by existing Certificate of Environmental Compliance approvals.”

But is drilling a new well to the Middle Cruse for no more than $500,000 really credible?

Garnhiem.

More cutting and pasting doesn’t answer the question.

Garnhiem.

You can keep cutting and pasting about the geology - it all sounds great in theory - but in practice we now know that CERP does not have the cash for anything more than a tentative initial foray into the shallower end of the SWP (now significantly more tentative than previously advertised - you do not get much of a well for $500,000).

Given the CAPEX that would be required to explore and then exploit the SWP and the punitive fiscal regime that it is situated in, how much do you think that CERP would get for its SWP assets if it put them on the market next week?

SoupChicken

No real thoughts or even interest after an update like that. May reassess when the 2018 Accounts become available in June or if there is a significant RNS before then.

bigmj

I hope you are making a good recovery.

Not sure that I would qualify as a deramper when at the end of the day I managed to overestimate both Q1 production and the end Q1 cash balance, but, in any event I will, until there is some significant news, now only be deramping sporadically.

CERP remains on my watchlist but, after that update, it is no longer a priority. It is good to be part of the conversation when you believe that something might eventually become a buy and hold opportunity, but, while you may still have faith in him, LK has, for me, dangled one too many propositions before CERP shareholders that have failed to pan out. And, like you, I really did not like his recent tweeting. It has undeniably left some PIs spiked/overexposed.

I hope you give LK’s cage a really good rattle.

Scarface72

What if that mid-cap status is obtained more by issuing shares than by growing shareholder value? Consider the possibility of an MCAP that multi-bags while the share price doesn’t.

Vmax

I read the RNS but did not watch the interview. I gave up on LK interviews a while back when it became clear that working strictly from RNS to RNS gave me a better idea of the trajectory here. LK needs to get his story straight about his plans for the SWP. The Middle Cruse occurs at different depths in different places but getting a new well there for less than $500,000 does not seem credible. As I said, a figure like that suggests that he is either talking about shallower wells or that he has been a little selective in what he includes in the total.

neon

That is interesting. Was the narrative at the time of the acquisition not more about priority than discounts? A figure like that suggests that he is either talking about very shallow wells or that he has been a little selective in what he includes in the total. If he did indeed quote that figure, a good Question to the Team would be exactly how the original $2-4million per well has become less than $0.5million per well. Is he going to have a serious go at the SWP or is he losing interest in Trinidad and just going through the motions? Is he beginning to think that the SWP will disappoint in the way that, reading between the lines, Goudron WF and Snowcap appear to be doing?

“It might be more fun to predict the end Q1 cash balance. Will it be $2.6M again or more or less? I will start the ball rolling with $2.2M.”

Near enough. So much for:

“Group is forecast to remain operationally cash flow positive despite the recent international oil price reductions, with operational profits forecast to cover all Group costs in Q1 2019.” (RNS 09/01/19)

End Q1 cash balance of $2.06M. Operational profits were forecast to cover all Group costs in Q1 2019 but they did not, to the tune of $540,000 of cash burn. Production through the floor. No wonder LK is turning cartwheels in his efforts to dangle shiny things in front of the LTHs.

Enough said.

Hedgecutter

Still a bystander and likely to remain one (though happy to bang a short in if there is a spike that I don’t think is justified by the RNS).