Member Info for rossannan

rxdav

No, while I agree with you about the spike potential I am more skeptical about the long term outcome now that we have this watered down SWP campaign and having seen LK’s biggest deal so far - Steeldrum - begin to disappoint. Steeldrum does not bode well for the deals to come. In other words, I suspect that LK is not the deal superhero that he has made himself out to be.

There are too many over-exposed LTHs who will just stick with this through thick and thin, having bought LK’s £/$500M MCAP nonsense and being too ready to listen to the rampers, even though the rampers get it wrong time after time. The tenacity of those LTHs means that even the current share price flatters the prospects here, spike potential aside.

PTMS

This is the interesting thing. I am not negative, I am just not 100% ramp. The problem on here is that anything that is not 100% ramp is viewed as negative (as LGO-fan discovered recently when he gave an honest reaction to the Q1 update). If I was in fact negative I would be calling the share price down to near 1p in the same way that the likes of VSA set ridiculous targets in the other direction. At no point until very recently (once I had digested the Q1 update) have I suggested that CERP would or should fall below 2p. I have also made it clear that I can see how sentiment could take the share price significantly higher than it is now, even if this is not justified by fundamentals and would likely be short lived.

I am simply trying to make an objective appraisal of CERP. My previous predictions on production and cash balance have been pretty near the mark. It is all about paying attention to details, both positives and negatives. You mention Spain. You admit that the FY2018 results are already out of date. Spain is certainly relevant when it comes to those out of date results but the forecast of group profitability that I am talking about is the forecast that LK made for Q1: “Group is forecast to remain operationally cash flow positive despite the recent international oil price reductions, with operational profits forecast to cover all Group costs in Q1 2019.” (RNS 09/01/19). That was and remains an epic fail, but, as I said, if he had been a bit more realistic in the first place it could have been a win.

rxdav

A good illustration of what I am talking about was Leo Koot’s prediction of an end Q1 cash balance showing zero cash burn. In fact it showed cash burn of over $0.5M. Q4 had though shown cash burn of over $1M. If LK had simply been more realistic and targeted a 50% reduction in cash burn, that part of the Q1 update would have been a win rather than an epic fail.

rxdav

Leo Koot could work wonders here by allowing the realities of the oil industry to seep in and simply setting timescales and targets that he knows he can over-achieve on. Over time this would probably cycle out the rainbow chasing investors who still think that they can take past talk of transformational deals and a £/$500M MCAP to the bank, but that would probably be for the best. One of his big mistakes was not that different from his predecessor’s - wasting time and money at Goudron in the face of all the evidence. He should have hit the SWP long before now, when CERP was still awash with cash. After all, he had SWP options even before the BOLT transaction was restructured.

I guess that with not much more than one month to go before the Q2 update it is time for Q2 average production and end Q2 cash balance predictions. I reckon we could see something like a 550bopd average and a cash balance around the $1.5M mark, but LK will no doubt be reserving the right to surprise on the downside!

rxdav

If I had posted on here, even not that long ago, that the SWP campaign was going to kick off in this way and then take six month naps, this would have been dismissed as deramping, you have to admit. Yet here we are. Will anything be achieved or is LK simply going through the motions?

wolfie1501

You beat me to it.

EyeGuy

Yes, they could release it today their time on the Oyster RNS (or whatever they call it) feed but this would be outwith Friday trading hours our time

rxdav

Not really - I can see what it might do for sentiment, particularly if it is presented in a certain way, but given the initial target and the drilling schedule any such spike may be short lived. Not sure that this version of the SWP is going to be the way forward for CERP. A more cautious approach? A refocused approach? A reprioritised approach? Or did LK simply fail to keep his powder dry enough to enable something more ambitious? I think we both know the answer.

offerman

Re your post on the other BB

You say that there is lots of news to come. I think you need to stop listening to Edgein’s rosy scenarios and think about the financial and other realities here, something which Edgein is, I suspect, keen for you to avoid doing. This is not to say that CERP will not catch another wave of sentiment - it could, and this could drive the share price significantly higher (as with the misplaced anticipation of the Q1 update). If this does happen though, recognise it for what it is and consider some kind of de-risk.

This is how I see the realities here:

-PRD potential 4.1 to CERP if good results from CO2

How likely are good results? The SWP aside, does the CERP portfolio not look like a bunch of old and tired fields that are beyond rejuvenation, whether by CO2 or by waterflood (I will come back to waterflood). And in the (I would argue unlikely) event that something comes of the CO2 experiment, where are PRD going to get that kind of money from? Have you had a look at their finances or share price chart recently?

- Upcoming AGM I think will be informative too

You set a lot of store by Leo Koot. You need to take a step back and look at the things that he has said while in share promotion mode and how they subsequently panned out. Whatever he says at the AGM should be taken with a large pinch of salt, IMO.

- possible M&A shortly too as we won the tender a little while ago so sign off should be soon pending any drastic changes .

Yes, it is clear from the Q1 update that taking on this new concession will see CERP taking on significant MWOs. How on earth is CERP going to finance these in a shareholder friendly way in this market?

- SWP start date .

Can you not see how drastically CERP has had to water down its ambitions for the SWP as a result of failing to keep its powder dry for deployment on its one genuinely interesting asset?

- update on SD infills rejuvenation's as Better IPSC there than Goudron.

Seriously, how good a deal does Steeldrum look now, nearly one year on? I would be very skeptical about what LK can squeeze out of those assets - they have been incredibly disappointing so far.

- update on 2nd injector WF

If you track all the references to Goudron WF in CERP RNSs I challenge you to come to any conclusion other than that it hasn’t worked and isn’t going to work.

- update on the four applications.

See above.

MadChatter

I think they just become a vehicle for a potential new venture. Basically a shell company with not a lot of cash. 5.69% of a such a shell company is a little better than nothing, but this will very much be a sideshow from GUN’s point of view.

cperkin

Let’s say that it becomes badly over-hyped, as it has in the past. There are always a few dissenting voices but they are unlikely to get much traction on this situation via BB posts as they will always be outnumbered on here, even if LK continues to disappoint. If skeptics can short it though, they can get real traction on the share price and while the rampers will undoubtedly still spike a few newbies, this will hopefully be at a lower and slightly less unrealistic price. I am not suggesting that banning shorting would make much difference to BB content, just that it will enable the rampers to inflate a larger bubble than they would otherwise.

Zero insight from Malcy there...

Don’t do it folks - you may have lost money in the past listening to BB rampers, but that will look like the good old days if shorting is banned - the rampers would have an absolute field day, at your expense.

IK

A lot has changed recently, not so easy to get a handle on it. I doubt very much that cash is increasing but I would be surprised if they burned through half a million dollars again this quarter. You never know though. The focus for now will be on the concession announcement and the first SWP drill and I expect that some right nonsense will be talked about these items, both in anticipation and once the RNSs actually start dropping. I am sure that there will be money to be made by traders on the back of all the rainbow chasing, but they may have to be nimble. Respect to anyone who, rather than trying to ramp this, is upfront about that being their plan. I have other fish to fry and CERP is pretty near the bottom of my watchlist at the moment - catch you on the next RNS.

1750mk1

Not true. What you get is my honest take on a share regardless of my position (long, short or none). Not that long ago I posted on the ADVFN BB about TXP being a better proposition than CERP (although that, admittedly, is not saying a lot). I was long TXP for a large part of last year but was still accused of being a deramper simply for challenging what some of the rampers were saying on ADVFN. That is the problem with the BBs - anything that is less than 100% ramp is regarded as a deramp.

MrMagoo31

Did Steeldrum add value or is it starting to look like a bad deal?

Do you not realise the extent to which CERP’s SWP campaign has now been watered down?

Do you not realise that the new SA concession will have MWOs attached which CERP is currently unable to fund?

Do you not think that your belief in LK is misplaced when so little of what he told you to expect by now has actually come to pass?

MrMagoo31

I think you see what you want to see. What I see is not as interesting as it was - it is clear that when and if CERP is able to make positive progress it will be from a very low base, a much lower base than it was supposed to start from. That is all I have to say about that RNS. There are more interesting opportunities elsewhere, whether you are interested in fundamentals or growth stories. Which is not to say that the upcoming concession announcement, Q2 update and SWP drill won’t offer trading opportunities - they clearly will - but, as ever, that will likely be about PIs betting on what other PIs are going to do rather than any great leap forward in any real sense.

Sundayroast

Because TXP remains on my watchlist and I have been in and out of it over the past couple of years? If BBs were only for those long and strong they would be useless echo chambers.

mikemike

But he hasn’t been getting the job done. Anyone who had come on here and painted the current scenario when LK arrived over two years ago (or even on his first anniversary) would have been howled at, but this is where CERP now is. All these little disappointments add up and CERP is now a long way off the road map. Posters like MrMagoo31 will no doubt still be calling people names and saying that everything is fine whatever happens, but I suspect (and hope) that the larger shareholders will be having a word, if they haven’t already.