Member Info for rossannan

CaptainSwag

Well played.

RustinCohle

I have not had a position here, long or short, since 2017. Do really think that Q2 production does not matter, or that the end Q2 cash balance that it feeds into (or sucks money out of if it is not profitable production) can be ignored when everything that LK is now diverting your attention towards involves significant CAPEX?

Woodlaker

Fine by me, very happy to have 20M at 0.024p, particularly now that GUN has a full 30% of Oyster 2.0, news will come in its own time.

RustinCohle

LK seems to have you all well trained. CERP is an oil company with significant CAPEX on the horizon. Q2 production and the end Q2 cash balance really matter if you are at all concerned about shareholder value within anything other than a trader’s timeframe. Put it this way - recent share price action demonstrates that LK is an effective salesman. The Q2 update (if LK risks one) is likely to demonstrate that he is a less effective oilman.

RAMMAN

It absolutely has, and fair play to any traders who have managed to take advantage of this and to any over-exposed LTHs who have taken the opportunity to de-risk. This is classic CERP and we saw the same pattern prior to the Q1 update. Has it changed any of the fundamentals though? Not one bit - it is still all about hope and the question is still whether hope will ever triumph over experience here.

HH

Okay, sounds like Razorman has possibly read too much into what LK said and that we are still on for an update towards the end of this week or early next week.

HH

I’m not really interested in LK in share promotion mode, just in what he is prepared to put in an RNS. But if, as Razorman suggests, he has now indicated that there will not be a Q2 update (the one we would expect around now - it was 13th July last year - in advance of the interims in September), I would be interested in that as it would seem to be something of a red flag, to say the least.

Is your understanding the same as Razorman’s, namely that there will not now be a Q2 update?

Vmax

LK has been at Goudron WF for over a year now and has been trying to make something out of Steeldrum for nearly a year. So if the the Q2 update (if there is one - Razorman?) shows that they are still not having any significant impact, it will be reasonable to conclude that they are beginning to look like duds.

Razorman

Just to be clear, has LK said that there will be no Q2 production etc. update?

deltalo

Seems unlikely that they would be in discussions with a potential farm-out partner at this stage of the game, surely? Nothing is impossible but has Oyster 2.0 not got a lot more to do before it reaches that stage of the game?

Razorman

No Q2 update? Seriously? What do you mean by no merger? I am talking about the new country entry referred to in the Q1 update RNS.

neon

1. No
2. No
3. Yes
4. Yes

LGO-fan

Do you not see any similarities to the share price action prior to the Q1 update?

If my Q2 update predictions:

“Q2 Predictions
08 Jun 2019 01:04
I guess that with not much more than one month to go before the Q2 update it is time for Q2 average production and end Q2 cash balance predictions. I reckon we could see something like a 550bopd average and a cash balance around the $1.5M mark...”

are there or thereabouts, do you really think that the share price will continue north, even with LK banging the SWP/new country entry drum? He has had long enough to make some kind of impact on production/cash burn with Goudron WF and Steeldrum - if we can’t see it in Q2’s average production and the end Q2 cash balance, both Goudron WF and Steeldrum will begin to look like duds. That really would beg the question of how LK is going to finance the SWP without betting CERP’s remaining cash balance on it and also how he is going to finance the MWOs associated with new country entry.

EyeGuy

Yes it is an optimal scenario for the majors, this way that the risks of exploration seem to be largely funded by us poor PIs - they just wait and then take their pick of the relatively few successes! Valuing Subco/Oyster 2.0 on the basis of what GUN paid for the additional stake that they have just acquired certainly keeps our feet on the ground, while looking at the historical valuation of Oyster 1.0 highlights what might be possible in time.

SocialistB

Sorry, the last sentence of my reply to you wasn’t very clear - I meant to say “Hardly scary when you consider that the current ‘market’ value of GUN’s stake in Subco is just over £300,000!”

Woodlaker

We don’t really know if now is the time to buy. Remember that GUN were very clear that they do not have the whip hand when it comes to the strategy/timing for Oyster 2.0 (although 30% is an improvement on 22.5%). Newbies buying in today could have a significant wait (at least by AIM standards) or they could have almost instant gratification.

All I know is that I am happy with my 20M at 0.024p and am happy to wait until the circus arrives back in town. Then we’ll see.

SocialistB

It is all about the different stages in the life cycle of potential oil assets, the time and money involved in moving them from one stage to the next and what this can mean for the shareholders (in this case GUN) of the company (in this case Subco - Oyster 2.0) which owns them. We just don’t know how all this will pan out as there are so many scenarios (including the assets turning out to be totally duff, local political problems, oil price woes etc.) but what happened with Oyster 1.0 gives us and the market a starting point for a bit of speculation. £3 million would be a fantastic result in terms of what it would do for the GUN share price! Hardly scary when you consider that the current “market” value of Subco is just over £300,000!

EyeGuy

I am working from the information in the 29th May 2019 MD&A, available on SEDAR (note that this now under “ZTR”). That information, though an interesting starting point, is surely not the basis for the kind of analysis of Reserves and Resources that oil investors have in mind when they talk about a CPR.

EyeGuy

For a start, how could the next step be a CPR given the limited information that the competent person would have to work with?

EyeGuy

So let’s discuss GUN!