Member Info for rossannan

capitalidea

That is old ground - if I had a dollar for every time I have gone over it on here I would now have enough to drill a Bonasse infill well.

You are mistaken if you think that the apparent ditching of the Q2 update does not matter, particularly in the light of what the updated MEEI Bulletin is telling us.

faz7475

Stupid concerns? Have you read the MEEI Bulletin? No shares for a start - would also be a significant cost in time and money. Makes more sense to keep my powder dry for the likes of TRIN (solid update today) where I do have a significant holding.

http://www.energy.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/MEEI-Consolidated-Monthly-Bulletins-January-May-2019-1.pdf

Enough said.

petersalkeld

And how is it all going to be paid for? If Razorman is correct and there is not going to be a Q2 update RNS, what does that suggest to you about the key metric that is the end Q2 cash balance?

?

MrMagoo31

Okay, sounds like you haven’t looked at the TAQA Bratani accounts on the Companies House website.

MrMagoo31

I was in at just under 2.7p and out at just over 6.6p. Have you looked at the TAQA Bratani accounts on the Companies House website? You can follow the story from the beginning to the present day. It is an eye-opener.

Obadhia

Not a reasonable outcome - an unlikely outcome (I would go further and say a very unlikely outcome). This is exactly my point - Leo Koot is a better salesman than an oilman - look at how many folk on here he has got to buy into his £/$500M narrative, even though it is basically a PI trap.

Obadhia

A near 20x MCAP increase with fewer new shares issued to get there than there are shares currently in issue? That really is just a pipe dream. Can you not see that if the last couple of years have taught us anything it is that Leo Koot is a better salesman than he is an oilman?

MrMagoo31

“OK - NO MORE FEEDING THE TROLLS”

You keep talking about “trolls”, but I think you are misrepresenting where the sceptics on here are coming from. They are not trying to call this down to zero. I am not even sure that this will see the wrong side of 2p again. In reality, the sceptics on here are simply challenging the bull case, the most fanciful iteration of which is LK’s £/$500M MCAP narrative, a narrative which PIs have followed as if LK was some kind of Pied Piper.

My argument is that the Q2 update (particularly the end Q2 cash balance - LK seems to have already admitted that Q2 production will be disappointingly flat, if not worse) will show why LK has been working so hard to shift the focus towards “SWP exploration”.

I would argue that what is being presented as “SWP exploration” is not that far removed from Bonasse infill drilling, one in a couple of months and one a bit later. But LK is like a barman folk keep giving their money to, even though he keeps watering down their drinks. LK’s plan for the SWP really is pretty much alcohol free these days - so much for the 800lb gorilla!

The question remains: SWP exploration/Bonasse infill drilling (whatever you want to call it) and minimum work obligations related to new country entry - how is it all going to be paid for? Wait until you see the end Q2 cash balance before you try to argue that LK has more than enough cash in hand or that it will somehow be generated by current operations.

MrMagoo31

And since you seem to be dodging the points that I have raised, I repeat:

1. Big non dilutive South American M&A

M&A or a new concession with MWOs to be funded?

2. SWP drill with transformative posibilities - two drills initially planned Sept, once paperwork complete... FROM CURRENT CASHFLOW

One planned for September. The second one planned for? From current negative cash flow? Let’s see what the end Q2 cash balance looks like in the light of the average Q2 oil price and average Q2 production which sounds as if it may have be less than 600bopd.

3. Co2 take from Trinity Innes, Predator, and a 4.2m cash injection buy out option by Dec. This year.... monies would go toward remaining 10 or so drill targets in the transformative SWP

Slow going that CO2 project. A bit like Goudron WF. Have you looked at the PRD 3 month chart recently?

It is strange the way that the MEEI Bulletin seems to have fallen into abeyance. It was occasionally a useful source of specific information outwith company updates - e.g. about IPSC production - but perhaps the macro story that it would tell these days is just too embarrassing for the T&T Government.

UOG looking cheerier - that is worth something to GUN, though I suspect we missed our chance to increase our holding around the recent lows.

LGO-fan

There seems to be a bit of doubt about that this time round - apparently it depends on how you interpret LK’s AGM chunterings - last time LK flagged it up with a tweet just before it dropped, so maybe worth keeping an eye on CERP’s Twitter over the next few days.

ColonelDrake

Perhaps the clearest winner here, for now, has been CaptainSwag who has traded this successfully and at the same time been entirely upfront about what he was doing. You may outrank him but sometimes you should listen to your subordinates!

ColonelDrake

In other words, what will prove my arguments right will be all of LK’s £/$500M+ MCAP chat turning out by the end of Year 5 to be the chimera that I think it is (assuming always that he does not achieve it on the back of WTI ascending into the stratosphere or by diluting the current shareholders into near oblivion).

ColonelDrake

I would never downplay (and have never downplayed) the trading opportunities that CERP offers - LK appears to be better at being a salesman than an oilman, which throws up plenty of trading opportunities. My arguments are more about the fundamentals and the longer term.

As I put it when this was back below 2.5p:

“rossannan
Posted in: CERP
Posts: 6,451
Price: 2.425
No Opinion
RE: Ross03 Jun 2019 15:53
IK

A lot has changed recently, not so easy to get a handle on it. I doubt very much that cash is increasing but I would be surprised if they burned through half a million dollars again this quarter. You never know though. The focus for now will be on the concession announcement and the first SWP drill and I expect that some right nonsense will be talked about these items, both in anticipation and once the RNSs actually start dropping. I am sure that there will be money to be made by traders on the back of all the rainbow chasing, but they may have to be nimble. Respect to anyone who, rather than trying to ramp this, is upfront about that being their plan...”.

Woodlaker

Spot on, and there is no way of knowing how long the wait for significant news might be - any newbies looking in should be aware that another spike like the one a few weeks back may be some way off. Or just around the corner. Who knows? All I know is that with these back at a significant discount to NAV I am not going to lose any sleep over them and am going to hold on to them very tightly.

deltalo

No, Don Strang subsequently bought 25,000,000 at an average price of 0.0255p.

MrMagoo31

“just believe in my investment, company and team at the helm”

One way to look at it is to think about where CERP currently is in terms of production, cash in the bank and significant M&A/new country entry. If I had forecast the current scenario in July last year, you have to admit that you would have accused me of ferocious deramping. Yet here we are. And you still believe in LK and his team?