Member Info for rossannan

SocialistB

I am sure that the price will move long before that. The fact that Oyster 1.0 spent most of 2017 with an MCAP of £10M or more has primed this for speculation - it really won’t take much! Rightly or wrongly folk will be looking for an excuse to try and convince us (and themselves) that 30% of Oyster 2.0 is worth £3M, even if, on the basis of the last trade in Oyster 2.0, 30% is only worth just over £300,000. Realistically, at the point at which 30% of Oyster 2.0 is worth £3M, GUN will probably have nothing like 30%, if it has any stake at all. But in the meantime there will probably be all the fun of the fair!

Interesting RNS. A 30% stake feels about right. Suspect that this will nevertheless be a slow burner. HH has made it clear that GUN does not have the whip hand here. The real catalyst will be the market getting a clearer idea of how things are likely to pan out over the next couple of years. Looks like GUN have turned a potential investment wipeout into a successful salvage operation - it is now really about the profit potential. So many scenarios. In theory GUN has a potentially explosive upside on this salvaged investment which would do wonders for the GUN share price. The chances are that the realities of the oil exploration business (financing CAPEX) will be a limiting factor. Still very exciting though, not least because the other investments that GUN has should limit the downside, in other words you get the hope without also having to worry (or at least not having to worry too much - it seems sensible to me to be a little sceptical about HB). At some point the circus will likely arrive back in town and I will be here when it does - not selling a single share in the meantime.

Hawkspear

“a rosy future seems to be in the offing”

How often have you said that over the last couple of years? Will you be saying it again this time next year? I think the answer depends on whether Leo Koot turns out to be more of an oilman than a salesman.

Take a step back - is he not looking more and more like a salesman and less and less like an oilman these days?

jcgswims

I would not frame the point in the same way as Irene but it is nevertheless an important point. The questions that LTHs like offerman ask and what they make of the responses that they receive demonstrate that they are not interested in identifying any negatives and are not going to call Leo Koot out for what is so obviously a series of disappointments. They just want him to tell them, yet again, that he won’t let them down next time. Leo Koot has not earned and does not deserve the loyalty of LTHs like offerman.

Just got an RNS Alert so had a look at the presentation it referred to. Good grief. Very flashy but not a lot of substance for anyone trying to figure out when, if at all, they will see a return on their investment. Except perhaps for the Annual Cashflow / Cumulative Cashflow graph that is tacked on to the end of the Saffron section. That says it better than I ever could - nothing significant happening here for a while.

neon

My colleagues and I aren’t missing it, it is just not that significant either way these days.

Do you think that the first, rather modest, SWP well, the only one in 2019, will spud before the debt is paid off?

Do you think that Leo Koot knows what he is doing, in the sense of knowing how to make all this work for CERP’s shareholders? What he is about to do in the SWP could presumably have been done a year ago. I hope he gets asked some hard questions at the AGM.

Off on my holidays proper now, maybe everything will be a bit clearer, for good or for ill, when I get back in mid-July.

LGO-fan

Here is an extended Holiday Special, in case you need it:

It is interesting, when some are pinning their hopes on a windfall from PRD, to have a close look at just how cash-strapped PRD is. It seems likely that, even if it is extended (tick-tock), PRD will ultimately walk away from their option.

Bigmj urges patience. That will certainly be necessary, but funding is also required. How do you finance a company that is losing money, may soon only have enough left in the bank for the first drill in its scaled down SWP campaign and is nevertheless supposedly about to take on a concession involving minimum work obligations?

Where you have an investor base far too easily influenced by £/$500M MCAP nonsense, by irresponsible CEO tweets and by the local rampers, is the company in any way investable?

In the last update the Group was forecast to remain operationally cash flow positive in 2019. Not cash flow positive overall (you have to wonder if CERP will ever make a profit), just operationally cash flow positive. Albeit with WTI now firmer, you have to wonder if CERP will even get over that low bar.

In the next but last update, of course, LK did forecast that the Group would be cash flow positive overall in Q1. He then proceeded to blow that big style. His track record of missed targets is becoming quite appalling.

One of the worst things about CERP is the way in which so many LTHs have let themselves become over-exposed to it (and a few have let themselves become way over-exposed to it), egging each other on to top up rather than encouraging each other to be careful out there. Ridiculous and irresponsible £/$500M MCAP chat from LK has not helped. Whatever might drive the share price north in the near future, you have to hope that the over-exposed LTHs can recognise how temporary such progress tends to be and take their chances to achieve some kind of de-risk.

LK now has a really quite substantial Whatever happened to...? file. For example, whatever happened to that ER-105 compartment well?

Whatever happened to the magic formula for Goudron well stimulation?

Whatever happened to Goudron Waterflood?

Are we soon going to be asking what happened to the SWP?

How long before we are asking what happened to Suriname?

How much more of this are Schroders going to take? How well did LK spend all that money that they put in at 5p per share? There is not enough left to do the SWP properly.

Look at the way in which TXP are banging their Ortoire drum while CERP are sounding increasingly half-hearted when it comes to the SWP.

Sweet dreams...

MrMagoo31

Apart from calling folk names, what do you have to offer here? Any analysis of the Company?

Or, even better, this:

https://youtu.be/d2aeRg_yMSE

Will LK have anything meaningful to offer at the upcoming AGM? He may need a distraction, particularly from Resolution 5. Try this, Leo:

hTTps://youtu.be/d2aeRg_yMSE

Shareholders will need a lot more patience and CERP will need a lot more funding, IMO.

1750mk1

Snide? How so?

PhotographerTLP

My point is that current production is TXP’s bird in the hand while Ortoire remains a bird in the bush. PB has admitted that the first Ortoire well is unlikely to be monetised until 2020 which means that for gauging cash flow and the likelihood of a placing to fund the second Ortoire well, the current production trajectory and the oil price are key. The current production trajectory is not great - when PB does eventually provide an update current production is unlikely to be much more than 2000bopd at best and it could conceivably be less than 2000bopd. The oil price speaks for itself.

Goodbody

That was Q1. More recently, the Company's April 2019 production averaged 1,789 bbls/d...

Sundayroast

It is just as well that the Company has managed to shift the focus from current production to Ortoire...

MrMagoo31

Or skeptical how something could be “funded from cash flow” when cash is in fact flowing in the wrong direction?

The day before the 2018 AGM we had this:

The Company delivered May 2018 average production of 1,728 barrels per day ("bbls/d") and the current field estimated production is approximately 1,821 bbls/d (seven-day average ending June 6, 2018). Additional volumes have been realized from three of the five wells drilled in 2018 with the final two wells expected to come on stream in the next 30 days.

No such luck with the 2019 AGM. Presumably current production is more than 1,821 bbls/d. Or at least a little bit more, anyway. Whatever happened to letting the numbers do the talking?

Is anyone aware whether PB updated on current production at the AGM? He did last year. I would be interested to know whether TXP have made significant progress back towards 2000bopd.

Wait

You said “They buy it for $19.1m and then sell 50% a few months later for $19.1m and retain operator status.”. You did not say “They buy 50% for $19.1m and then sell that 50% a few months later for $19.1m and retain operator status.”

LuckCounts

That is not how his post reads. Maybe he will clarify what he was trying to say.

Wait

No, you have got the wrong end of the stick. No profit has been made. Basically, AMER have given OXY the benefit of their ROFR. Not a bad move strategically but cash neutral, as the RNS points out.