Member Info for rossannan

“Safe and sustainable, stronger together, creative excellence, positive energy, totally trusted and personally responsible”

Can Leo Koot be totally trusted if he is ditching the Q2 update? Do you think he would ditch an update that contained good news?

LGO-fan

Only about the Q2 update and various other issues related to CERP! In any event, from what CaptainSwag is saying about LK’s video (“look into my eyes, look into my eyes, the eyes, the eyes, not around the eyes, don't look around my eyes, look into my eyes, you're under”), it seems that I won’t be proved right until the interims, by which time other things should be happening that will pull focus from the figures.

LGO-fan

It is not about being positive or negative, it is about being right. It looks as if LK is going to rob me of my chance to be right about the Q2 update:

“Q2 Predictions
08 Jun 2019 01:04
I guess that with not much more than one month to go before the Q2 update it is time for Q2 average production and end Q2 cash balance predictions. I reckon we could see something like a 550bopd average and a cash balance around the $1.5M mark...”.

LGO-fan

I would argue that the SWP story has changed for the worse and now looks more like Bonasse infill drilling than potentially transformational exploration. However LK chooses to present it, it looks to me as if this arguably watered down approach has been entirely dictated by CERP’s diminishing cash pile.

LGO-fan

What happened to the healthy scepticism that you were exhibiting after the Q1 update? What has changed for the better here? Beware of the siren call of Leo Koot’s “medias”. There is a reason why he always ends them with the phrase “3, 2, 1, you’re back in the room.”

Hedgecutter

Have you anything more specific to say about CERP than being “sure happy days will be here sooner than later”? That may be a more rigorous analysis than VSA has to offer, but they have set the bar pretty low...

Mrnaddy100

But not if he dodges it entirely (although, as I said, the info. will eventually emerge via the interims). Such a move would not just fly in the face of everything he has said about transparency etc. but would also be quite manipulative. He does have form - last year he dodged an update that would have highlighted the extent of CERP’s cash burn by choosing to consolidate the quarterly figures with Steeldrum and not give separate figures for the original pre-Steeldrum business, which he could easily have done. The way in which he seems to be manipulating information is one of the ways in which he is beginning to remind me of Neil Ritson.

Razorman

The test comes not in 3 months but in just under 3 years. I fully expect Leo Koot to fail it. In the meantime, if he is genuinely not going to share the Q2 data this side of new country entry/Bonasse infill drilling he may thereby avoid a price dip and allow speculation around these two events to take the share price higher, at least for a time - I can see where the likes of CaptainSwag are coming from here. At some point though, funding will raise its ugly head and the Q2 data will eventually have to be outed, in the interims if not before.

Hard not to conclude that Leo Koot is either looking to dodge the Q2 update entirely or bury it in other news.

And don’t forget to read the disclaimers, e.g.:

“Non-Independent Research

This is a marketing communication. It is non-independent research as it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.”

Wailun_90

Yes, with a truly independent third party recommendation from a broker like VSA, it beggars belief that this has not multi-bagged this morning.

Wait...what footnotes?

An uber cynical theory is that LK is dodging the Q2 update so that he can get a placing away at a higher price than he would if the market saw the figures for Q2 average production and the end Q2 cash balance...

Hawkspear

While I disagree with the majority of the posters on here, it does not mean that I think they are lying when they say that they have a holding in CERP or in any other share that comes up in conversation. Just because I think that they are mistaken to believe in LK’s rosy scenarios, it does not (for me) follow that they are lying about their holdings. I kind of expect the same courtesy in return. So when I say, as I have said before, that I have not had a position in CERP, long or short, since late 2017, I expect folk to take that at face value. Similarly, when I say, as I have said before, that my three biggest non-investment trust holdings are TRIN, HUR and AMER, I expect folk to take that at face value too.

emilyt16

Bearing in mind how roughly three quarters of that particular total is attributable to CERP, there is a good chance that Q2 average production is not along the same lines as Q1 average production (as LK has apparently suggested) but in fact significantly lower, possibly by as much as 40bopd.

emilyt16

Table 1A, HPCL (ISPC)

Jan-May 926, 932, 725, 838, 816

Hawkspear

Up to you, but I think you are in the wrong regiment then and that CaptainSwag’s rinse and repeat company have the better strategy. As you suggest, it comes down to your verdict on Leo Koot.

MrMagoo31

Or, for once, you could try addressing the points that I am making.

I am, after all, talking about the company that you have nearly £120,000 invested in. And yet, every time, all you have to offer is a “ya boo” response?

Maybe £120,000 is just not serious money for you.

Lucky you then.

ColonelDrake

So CERP is just going to be handed a big uplift in shareholder value on a plate? I really think you should stop pulling rank on your subordinate CaptainSwag and consider the benefits of his more pragmatic approach. There may be money to be made by nimble traders but do not let Leo Koot lead you into chasing rainbows. The evidence thus far suggests that Leo Koot is a more effective salesman than an oilman.

Hawkspear

You could be on to something there - we saw how the Q1 update trashed the share price, but if LK dodges the Q2 update he might just dodge further share price weakness and there could be a resumed rise in anticipation (justified or not) of Bonasse infill drilling/new country entry - the question then would be whether it is better to travel than to arrive (given that financial realities tend to creep back in with RNSs). Not investable, IMO - I look at Leo Koot and am too much reminded of Neil Ritson these days - but a potential trading opportunity for those nimbler than me. Good luck!

Hawkspear

It is not negative drivel though, it is demonstrably fair comment. You can’t deny that I called the Q1 update correctly and you can surely see that if Razorman is right about Leo Koot dodging the Q2 update, that will be a significant red flag - both as to where production currently is (the latest MEEI Bulletin already suggests problems there) and as to what the current cash balance is.

It doesn’t matter what Leo Koot’s near future plans for Bonasse infill drilling or new country entry are, if he has not been taking good care of that crucial cash balance the omens are not good for shareholder value. Funding gets thrown at oilers when WTI is at $100, not when it is struggling to stay above $60.