Member Info for rossannan

Fred

I would expect M&P to come back sooner rather than later with an all cash offer, maybe 20p. Then it really will be game on, assuming that no other proposal is tabled in the meantime. Have to say that while I am not really expecting more than 25p at the end of the day, I would be surprised and disappointed if this went for much less than that, even 20p.

Fred

That is too pessimistic even for me. 25p feels like a reasonable and realistic target. No way would I sell up in the teens.

leas

A lot of folk posting about what they would like to happen, I’m just trying to figure out what is actually going to happen. BTW, have been posting on the AMER ADVFN BB since 2017.

ColonelDrake

That certainly should have been the starting point, but unfortunately it wasn’t and we are where we are.

Have banged on about the merits of UOG on here far too often when I should have just been investing directly. Still hoping against hope that we upped our stake at some point before the shutters came down this morning.

Gary

No, I said towards 12p, i.e. south rather than north.

I wouldn’t bank on it.

It’s all happening at UOG. I will say it again - I wish we had more.

BumblingFool

I am not saying that it would head back to 12p if the process came to a halt for whatever reason, but like you I think that it will probably be sold - I would say that a sale in whatever form that takes is in fact almost inevitable, now that the dog has seen the rabbit. I agree with you that this has come about earlier than is desirable for maximum shareholder value.

diggit1gold

The problem is that if a deal doesn’t happen this time round the share price heads back south. The genie is out of the bottle - it kind of has to happen now. Buyers are no doubt quite happy at the prospect of this being wrapped up before Indico-2 comes in or there is time for a sustained oil price rally.

Gary

He’s got you there.

Razorman

I think you are being hard on yourselves - as I said Leo Koot is a consummate salesman, even if he is not that effective an oilman. It is easy to be taken in.

diggit1gold

“mind numbingly repetitive crass statements”

In other words, statements that some would rather not see on their BB. But are they wrong?

ColonelDrake

Stake building in Ithaca was not the same as Ithaca going into play. I am talking about actual offers, binding or not, disclosed or solicited in RNSs. Of course the likelihood of an offer for AMER has been increasing over recent months - the value case has been clear - but Friday’s starting point was unfortunately low for those hoping for much more than 25p. That’s how I see it anyway. If I’m wrong I’m quids in, so it’s all good.

WiTech

Why should I stop banging this drum? It is hardly ferocious deramping to be contemplating selling out at around 50% north of here, is it? What anyone says on a BB has little impact on the real world, but you cannot deny, looking at other oilers, that the price at which the game is started appears to have a real impact on the price at which it is played out. It looks to me as if anything more than 25p may require (1) the game to stop and start again later (painful in the short term), (2) substantial drilling success in the meantime (possible) or (3) a substantial and sustained oil price rally (looking unlikely on any timescale that would be of use to AMER).

ColonelDrake

You are missing the point, it is not about what multiple of their share price lows these companies went for, it’s about what multiple they went for of the share price they had when they went “in-play”. It is very rarely, if ever, more than 2x (but can often be as much as 2x).

TCW798

It’s the tab immediately above the blue “Post Message” button - just cut and paste the relevant nickname into the box and click the red “Filter” button.

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leas

Are figures like 25p just being plucked of thin air though? As we know, this went in-play at 12p. How many other oilers have gone for more more than twice the price they went in-play at? Why should AMER be different, barring substantial drilling success (or the oil price rallying significantly) in the interim? No reason for it to go for much less than 25p, but why should it go for much more?

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