Member Info for rossannan

Goodbody

Yes, it now seems possible that spud news will not drop before the operational update. I would prefer a standalone spud RNS ahead of the operational update, but you don’t always get what you want.

LGO-fan

What is there here that is good? There is certainly plenty of retail conviction behind CERP - you can see from this BB how folk have bought right into LK’s stories, but the waves of positive sentiment always seem to collapse sooner or later when nothing of substance actually materialises and it becomes clear that yet again many PIs were simply taking short term bets on what other PIs were going to do. In other words, I would argue that CERP is only good for trading, if that.

I am not on here to promote other shares, simply to challenge the local rampers by pointing out what a genuinely awful investment proposition I think CERP is and what a disappointing CEO I think Leo Koot has turned out to be. Look at the financial position. Look at what the SWP campaign has morphed into - a couple of Bonasse appraisal wells (you can almost guarantee that the first of these won’t now spud until Q4). It is not unreasonable to contrast the financial solidity of TRIN (pretty cheap right now for such a well funded company) or the much cleaner trading opportunity offered by TXP, but I realise that there is little chance of CERP LTHs considering other opportunities. Talk about bias! Is the list of holders a healthy thing? It would be if it was the basis of some shareholder activism and you all gave LK’s cafe a good rattle over the missing Q2 update, but it feels more like you are using it to hold each other hostage.

Sundayroast

Not that I’m aware of but he confirmed to me last week that the rig was on the move so it’s all good and I’m sure that we will have news this week.

LGO-fan

As a wise man once said, back in the days when Leo Koot was still prepared to take the risk of giving a quarterly update (just over 3 months ago, in other words):

“For me it is simple: I like Leo as long as he delivers. Simple. He did a great job initially, but the latest set of performances and broken promises has been very disappointing. You would be a fool to say otherwise.
This is not a football game where we support our team come what may, it’s an investment. Criticism is not only sound, but justified.

Anyway, at least if LK gets sacked by end year, you will have had a heads up here.“

LGO-fan

You think new country entry has slipped to end Q3?

TrekMadone

Yes, it offers both in spades. Good luck.

On past experience it makes sense to allow for slippage.

TrekMadone

It’s not surprising to see folk holding off. Many folk no doubt think they have a good idea what the next RNS will be, or at least what it will include, and how that will play out. They may well be right. But most of those folk have probably been fully loaded for a while. Potential newbies understand that nothing is risk free in markets like these and are probably waiting to see the whites of Paul Baay’s eyes. I jumped back in again recently but accept that I have taken a risk in doing so.

Whatever you think of the respective investment cases, both TXP and CERP have potential for news-driven gains in the short term. I chose TXP because CERP’s timetable seems a little too slippery and its key financial metrics have recently been posted missing.

About that. “Announcement of new concession forecast for late Q2/early Q3 2019.“

Any day now, you would think...

Lancygeo

The sp is never irrelevant. Have you considered the possibility that LK might in fact hit his £/$500M MCAP target but dilute you so repeatedly and so significantly along the way that at that point the share price will still be 3p? Stranger things have happened. You need to ask yourself whether LK is a good custodian of shareholder value or just sees the LTHs here as a means to an end.

Lancygeo

How on earth can you be “more than happy”? With all the missed targets? With LK failing to master Goudron? With Goudron WF looking like a non-starter? With Steeldrum looking like a bad deal? With LK’s watered down and delayed version of an SWP campaign? Really?

Wailun_90

The answer to that new Question to the Team is illuminating: “The Company still expects to spud the well in late September 2019.”

This, of course, means October.

So what happened to mid-2019, early in H2, early September? The sceptics were right yet again. Seriously, how much lead time does Leo Koot need to get even his watered down SWP campaign underway with that first Bonasse appraisal well?

What is going on here? Are they over planning everything (not necessarily a fault) or have they come hard up against a tortuous bureaucracy or is it a bit of both?

Or is this really all about funding?

Funding, funding, funding.

Something that I can almost guarantee that we will see before late September is a placing.

1750mk1

Sharing PB’s confirmation that drilling costs were slightly lower than one possible interpretation of a presentation, that the receivables issue was no longer material due to an offset and that Heritage do not charge any royalties in the first year of a new well = trolling?

Well I might dispute “funded” but on the other hand success with this first drill, which is funded, should make the funding of subsequent drills less of an issue. Good luck!

It is worth doing when you need an answer that is not price sensitive but will give you a fuller picture or clarify something said in a presentation or interview:

PBaay@touchstoneexploration.com

They were on a range of different topics including clarification of Ortoire drilling costs, the Petrotrin receivables issue and various tax breaks - all now water under the bridge.

Not in love with TXP but this is an interesting moment for it. I would also say that I have exchanged a number of emails with PB over the last ten months and been impressed by the speed and clarity of his responses.

PTLP

I’m wary enough of the information that folk share on BBs, let alone social media! Tried to follow your link but just got this message: “The link you followed may be broken, or the page may have been removed.”

PTLP

What is FB?

Newbies looking in should note how sceptical posters are so often answered with speculation about their motives or even their identities and a lot less often with anything that actually addresses their company-specific concerns.