Member Info for RorkesDrift

Can I ask what this is all about. I get muggins is unhappy that the share price has not performed. I suspect we would all prefer for it to be higher.

I also understand that ramping a stock is also annoying - sometimes we is where we is.

I'm not sure if putting a post about AI use in waste water qualifies. It may or may not bad relevant. However, we could respect the original post - if nothing relevent it would soon drop off the board

I've only been reading DV board for about two days but does every post have to be hijacked to the same point. What you are saying may or may not be true but perhaps start a new thread ?

I bought some more today - buttocks clenched since yes the company have not delivered to the original timescales. That doesn't mean they won't deliver. GB has stated that there are potentially sales across Europe and another continent (presume Asia). I don't think anything he is stating is unbelievable but we all judge its validity and trade accordingly.

As for TP - I agree but that is life on Aim. Its not unique to Deep verge.

Next step is £10M+ annual sales and profitability. That is what the BoD has stated and confirmed in last update.

The rest of it may or may not happen. None is promising jam or anything else - otherwise they would adjust forecast.

The various projects may deliver - you do your research you take the risk. All of these things will take time - maybe GB has his timings out but are you any less confident they will happen - others are hence the decline in SP - no news is not good news. Revalue the company, decide on value. Decide to hold or sell. Cannot win them all but good luck especially if you hold.

I'm holding - the wastewater thing rather than anything else. To be honest don't understand the rest of it.

My take, which is not based on I depth is that the forecast for the full year is £10M or there about and the company will turn a profit. Made complicated in that revenues are weighted towards second half of year.

The Chinese opportunities are not in the forecast - conservative approach plus even if deal is signed now will probably not impact until next year (milestone payment would be good). However, if (and that is still a IF) deal is signed that next years forecast should be very tasty.

Through breath test will qualify as a medical device. Lots of people going down this route based on VOCs but I think Deepverge may have an advantage when considering their recognition approach and AI. However, it takes time to fine tune an accurate device (measuring systems is very difficult) and then a trial is required - this is to meet regulatory requirements first CE Mark I think. Doesn't happen quickly. Cannot see any reason for lack of info but perhaps trying to keep competition guessing. I wouldn't bet the house on this ever getting to market and if it does I think its impact goes well beyond Covid - thus extending timelines further.

The skin trust thing seems to be gearing up for Xmas - lot of investment going in but I'm not their target market (I have remarkably beautiful leather type skin that you could make travel cases out of).

For me it is a buy and hold - higher risk than waiting for more info but I also think that thus years arrival at profit combined with the noises re wastewater justify buying.

On a different note GB states no fund cause THIS year but maybe he is waiting for a higher price - if he is confident then waiting is justified. Await Micrisaic results - their gross margin will point to whether Deepverge will make a move - the MWG model of share purchase wouldn't require a fund raise and would give vertical integration benefits.

Or we could look further afield than the UK........

If demand exceeds supply then everyone including Avacta will sell as much as they can make.

There is an issue about N or S protein but I think that will be dropped - Avacta data says they can identify someone with covid with high viral load (infectious). <--- that's a big full stop.

Fingers crossed - US partnership announced soon I believe.

The Redx timelines for phase II are a good indicator. We seem to be three months behind them but they are talking 9 months post the 3+3 for initial data. Avacta forecast of 2023 therefore looking about right with maybe a touch of slack.

Is it a Welsh company ?

Templar - post of the week

Interesting point about the MS stuff. Had a quick wiki read. Also the extraction step using beads is in there

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiplexed_point-of-care_testing

Affirmers but tell my spool chucker.

To date development times don't look any quicker and the animal issue hadn't put off the purchasers of LFDs. Both Covid and Zika LFDs have struggled commercially. The current situation was opportunistic but we haven't any evidence that it has been realised - frustrating and not a deramp.

We may be able to fit more recognition molecules in a given space hence the high sensitivity but the Chinese seem to be able to bang out LFDs for next to nothing. Thus AvactaDx need to find an unmet need which they can uniquely fill. Quantative DX rather than LFD could be that gap. We know the requirement is there for bed side testing - given Avacta money resources are tight and possibly best spent in therapeutics then a big pocket partner/ TO could run with this - suspect it with come out of left field.

The HUA which can be predicted time be in development (why wouldn't they do this, apply standard regulatory timescales) only makes a dent if the hurdle is high and Avacta are able time leverage superior performance in the mind if purchasers - "they are worth it" switch to video of grandma etc. Medusa are a Marketing outfit and Avacta have started to dip toe in water (what was the b011 ux being put on their Twitter account by shareholders having a pop - not helpful). Going to need something a bit more meaty e.g. Boots branded test etc than current efforts

Have to laugh. On the whole valid and sensible but then adopts .

"No of course we don’t because these are serious well informed investors / not traders, or the derampers on this BB working for Jupiter"

The LFT angle only works if affirmers offer an advantage over AB. This doesn't seem to be the case - have a look at sales numbers to date. Therefore not my opinion but the opinion of customers.

The potential value first affimer DX is biosensors that are qualitative. So how much of a analyte is present. This is incredibly difficult with AB - there may be a device that is commercially available but I don't know of one. The variability in readout is the problem - just cannot get it consistent.

Now affirmers may solve this. Imagine ITU - how much CRP does pt have wanging around. Is it going up, is it going down. What is the readout on other inflammatory markers, are there pathogens present. A multiplex affimer biosensor would be a major breakthrough. Google University of Leeds and affirmers and you can see the direction it is headed.

It is the requirement firba booster that is the question ;-)

Board have stuck to their forecast - GB stated they couldn't move from it cause deals not over the line. Market is just waiting to be certain - risk averse whereas PIs happier with higher risk / return.

Thanks for posting

LG could almost buy Avacta for the price of the milestones .....

Add in the licence revenues and use increase margin to calculate payback period.

https://avacta.com/avacta-and-lg-chem-life-sciences-expand-partnership/

From paper on trial design

The traditional 3+3 design remains the prevailing method for conducting phase I cancer clinical trials (7). It requires no modeling of the dose–toxicity curve beyond the classical assumption for cytotoxic drugs that toxicity increases with dose. This rule-based design proceeds with cohorts of three patients; the first cohort is treated at a starting dose that is considered to be safe based on extrapolation from animal toxicological data, and the subsequent cohorts are treated at increasing dose levels that have been fixed in advance

If none of the three patients in a cohort experiences a dose-limiting toxicity, another three patients will be treated at the next higher dose level. However, if one of the first three patients experiences a dose-limiting toxicity, three more patients will be treated at the same dose level. The dose escalation continues until at least two patients among a cohort of three to six patients experience dose-limiting toxicities (ie, =33% of patients with a dose-limiting toxicity at that dose level). The recommended dose for phase II trials is conventionally defined as the dose level just below this toxic dose level.

I was wondering about validation but webcam could be a potential solution. Presumably they could record including passport or driving licence. Don't have to watch all of them as long as people think you might. Alternative would be pop up testing like they have in Germany. Must be enough retail space available at the moment.

I also wonder when testing will be mandatory at work. Suspect that's the half way house to enable govt to pass on the cost. Schools etc still get it free but private companies will be told it is part of H&S. Also avoids lock down

Who knows - HUA is in progress and user trials took place (LSE sleuths) so news can be predicted to be on its way.

Whole thing is worth a rematch. Also says three different models used in preclinical - rat, dog and mouse. Covid not expected to impact on recruitment.

Even his Lordship is struggling. Case closed.