Member Info for RorkesDrift

BMN being the first one. That seems to have ended up with them ramping selling and then moving on - probably same tactics. My favorite is still the multiple twitters likes from the dog - laughed for a week.

Don't call him that

Name something that the sausage we idling donkey rider has actually been accurate on.

I'll start.

Hang on, give me a moment

I'll get there in a minute

I'll come back to you

4D pharma was a nailed cert last Dec. In not that one.

£1.32 was the bottom. Oh not that one either.

There must be something in the Timeline but cannot see it

Mmmmmm

I'd add that affirmers are recognition molecules. As such their target markets are anything where currently antibodies are used.

The creation of value associated this is taking a long time - I believe because Avacta lack the resources to do it themselves and are thus in the hands of several third parties who will go at a pace that matches the money / time / quality triangle favouring money. The confidentiality of these arrangements means no news - good or bad until it is over the line or sunk without trace.

All in all this is still an investment built on the IP. Prof Waffle has frustrated us all by saying very little except to over hype - a year ago it was going to be all they could make. Seems to have taken it to heart and now ignores investors - well at least PIs. All we ask is for honest, regular communications but he doesn't see that has a part of the job. His friends in II land probably love him but probably needs to benchmark his comms against similar companies.

At start of pandemic SP was about 20p so have to take hat off. However if I was a PI who believed what he said at £2.80 then you would be aggrieved.

So we have a long term play. Its always been a long term play. Look at the tech - plays in therapeutics, DX and lab. Go back to basics and don't model anything under two years.

My view is expect a move in States before Xmas - nasdaq and fund raise being part of it. Expect news on the existing tie ups in next 12 months. Expect second precision drug to be submitted for phase 1 in 18 months. Expect Ava004 to be licensed to third party anytime.

HUA before end Oct but will make limited impact on SP which now will only respond to hard factual sales numbers - please no more waffle.

All the right words but not necessarily in the right order?

What does the magic chart say?

I'm wondering what the Board have said about forecast. If it looks like we deviate from thus by x% I think they may have to make a statement - hopefully a profit reforecast

To be fair it wasn't PL75 who started the thread or came on talking about fast food.

In terms of his Lordship being right or wrong - I am genuinely trying to think of a single "insight" that came true. Added to this it is part of a pattern of buy ramp sell that is repeaters across a number of companies. BMN caught a lot of people out and I suspect 4D pharma will be another one. As stated can choose to ignore but think it is fair when the Widow T****y act goes full pelt to point out that all may not be as appears. Suspect successful trading only needs moves of 10% before fake news is revealed as such but hey probably keeps him in happy meals.

I wont mention the dog as its own twitter account and retweets. That is genuinely funny in a pathos kind of way.

How much inventory would a company hold to ensure they could meet their forecast demand. Then we have to factor in supply chain volumes etc plus some risk volume given lack of lorry drivers etc. So maybe six minrgs stock, maybe three months, maybe JIT

So the absolute number of widgets incorporated to date in products being sold would be difficult to calculate with just the order volume of widgets. Grateful for any info but widgets in and product out are not the same thing. Maybe stick to facts or at least detail how the number of 1 M was arrived at. I am reliably informed that showing your working is an acceptable approach whereas pretending to know how much is being sold probably isn't. Maybe right, maybe wrong but put the ego to one side unless its another pump and dump.

PS loved the clip clop comment. I knew you could do it

I'm guessing you are on a wind up. Supply and demand.......

https://www.technochemical.com › ...PDF
Lateral Flow Tests

So has of today 8-9000 people in hospital. I get that we might be used earlier than this and that we are looking at maybe 30000 admissions per month. I'm not a genius but not sure if 100,000 treatments drops out of those numbers

Not sure how sales of £580k results in earnings of £500k. Using industry benchmarks probably closer to £150k. At PE of 26 = £3.9B (see SOBI) but that timescales is not realistic.

COPD was a concept put on hold by BoD. For a reason. So high return potentially but rolling dice on that one.

Interesting to see what valuations are based on. My belief is the comment re supply being key is a good one. I also think Guardian numbers too conservative.

Assuming worldwide sales of 100,000 per month for 4 years (average). I'd go with earnings of 20%. Price of £1000 gives retained earnings of just under £1B and SP of £5. Adjust numbers in assumption in just pick an SP and work backwards from there.

Thanks for thoughts. Interesting.

Volumes are up

Not saying you are wrong but is £20 just the first number that popped up or there some sort of calculation behind it.

Assumption that covid therapeutics required for 10 years is an interesting assumption as is that the demand will increase rather than decline. Maybe its true but sounds a bit like warm feelings rather than rationale evidence

How do you get to £20 from the Guardian article? Suggests a mk cap of £4B which is 7x the sales predicted.

Not saying that isn't doable but will Covid be the same threat in 7 years?

More likely is an expansion into other respiratory conditions but SNG have been there before.

The other alternative is the Guardian have got their numbers wrong.

Mid summer?

I'm going to open a business where, for a small charge, I will tally up feline pets

Next thing you know they will start charging for handing out prescriptions.

I wonder how many people were holding within ISA. If you want tax free return I suspect some are transferring to another UK opportunity.

"I am assuming in all this that the outcome of the trials will be positive"

That's an assumption a clinician is not able to make. It is also an assumption the NHS payers cannot make. It is also an assumption that the hospital lawyers defending medical negligance cannot make.

Frustrating but the use of randomised, controlled clinical trials is the best approach we have. Otherwise we would be all taking anti malaria tablets and injecting bleach.

The data to date looks good - just not good enough. Yet

Be patient.