Member Info for RorkesDrift

Are you saying they are unlimited?

Healthcare budgets are not unlimited. Google reimbursement, market access and health economics to see why a simple model of volume x price = massive market expansion isn't reflective of reality. Add into that the levels of competition emerging.

Avacta are in the game and have multiple options running. Valuing the company and therefore the SP has to reflect both the potential but also the inherent risks. Possible to do for Ava006 - I guess we all have dine that albeit with a different tolerance of risk to the whole market. Time extrapolate one potential scenario built on assumptions about pricing a whole as yet unclear, untimed, unproven portfolio is a great daydream and one which is nice to partake but lets not try and pretend its an analysis.

The PD-1 could also extend to radiotherapy. Incoming (opinion)

While chemotherapy treatment effects only last as long as the drugs remain in the body, one of the most exciting and groundbreaking aspects of immunotherapy is that it can provide long-term protection against cancer, due to the immune system’s ability to recognize and remember what cancer cells look like. This immune ”memory” is what makes longer-lasting remissions possible. Clinical studies have shown that beneficial responses to cancer immunotherapy treatment can be durable and can be maintained even after treatment is completed

Plus Avacta have several of their own immunotherapies in the pipeline. Ava006 is prioritised do to lower risk profile but will generate the resources required to move these programs along.

15-20 patients suggests 5 to 7 dose increases in a 3+3 study. We don't know how big those steps will be but it looks as if avacta have a target dose in mind that may achieve maximum clinical benefit with minimal side effects (therapeutic window). To increase the dose above this wouldn't yield any benefit. The target will be based on the preclinical info they have. I suspect the company are very excited that they have a potential dox changing drug - this arm is probably the make or break one. We know the effects of dox so does the tech do what it says o the tin - is it cardiac sparing.

They then move into the second phase where they will need more patients. My experience is clinical trials.gov is the go to source for info other than the company. The first phase will report Q1 hopefully (AS update). The centres involved are already detailed in that study summary.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/record/NCT04969835

The number of patients needed for the entire study will about 30-80.

I am hoping they may be able to skip phase 2 and go straight to phase 3 given the dox known data. However from an SP point of view the biggest moment is this phase 1a result. I'm relaxing until then since no news really is no news.

OK I'm beginning to understand. You think I have more than one account. One of those accounts is NDN and another one is Steve. The gymn seems quite important - I'm guessing that's the protein shakes but I guess you will mention steroids at some point.

I guess you joined all those dots on your own using a crayon - bit like constellations. I think its great if it helps you cope and if there is anything I can do to help let me know but in the spirit of cooperation feel free to populate your beliefs with

1. Other women find me attractive - I know you secretly do too. Minx.
2. Whey protein makes me f**t but as they say no pain, no gain
3. After Jim, I secretly plan world domination.

I prefered it when you were trying to take the mick. There is no need for this hostile alter ego you adopt. Please try again.

I'm understand M19 have significant manufacturing capacity but not sure where I got that from. Spain seems to be focal to their efforts so links with China is an interesting development.

In a supply squeeze I suspect Avacta are happy for them to produce as much as they can make - with a deal in place it has to look as if M19 will do what they can to maximise the return on their time, resources etc - it is them that are pushing and benefiting from HUA. Avacta can sit back and concentrate on other channels.

Their regulatory and healthcare marketing may be a touch undercooked but their is no denying their digital and online skills if this becomes a direct to consumer product. Finely balanced but could be interesting couple of weeks - move from PCR will put further pressure on supply. Wise man oncevsaid they will sell everything they can make.

Steve sends his regards, as does Jim. What now?

Is it negative to state the truth. I thought the same but doesn't detract from the good news this is. No need to personalise a fairly obvious fact or deny it - it is what it is

Success of the avacta lfd will depend on commercial arrangements - I thought the Board do well when they consider all the angles - you can ignore anything that doesn't fit but don't deny everyone else who might want to be a bit more considered.

Feel free to make up some facts and post continually

Wow - proper sleuthing. Thank you.

Glass houses

https://twitter.com/Ophidian18/status/1439983065477099521?t=APU_66-jcu_VzSA84z50XA&s=19

Come on, you can do better than that

No worries - what's the dog having

Are you struggling to keep up?

I think you are all being a little harsh about his lordship. If anyone is to blame its the guy who told Tuppence. How would you feel if your dog was making you say and do things just because it was addicted to chicken mcnuggets.

His lordship is right now practising his sausage skill and if you are not careful he won't come here again and predict stuff that doesn't happen.

Has for me my pet llama, on yet another trip to IKEA assures me that in the next 48 hours his lordship is going to stress that he wasn't predicting or providing fact but rather cooperating. I think he said that - maybe it was co pulating.

In the mean time I hear Tuppence has this on loop

https://youtu.be/Gs069dndIYk

US sentiment is going to drive this. Someone somewhere will also secure product - expect US and Germany orders before Xmas. UK govt will dawdle until its too late - will get a shock when overseas manufacturing announced

£2 is not my target - still all.or nothing but big news will ignite the rocket - at that point per ardu ad astra or it will blow up on launch pad. Price reflects risk but I'm thinking £2.50 before end of month based on profit takers bare out and other IIs will want a position next week when official comment comes out. RM to make-up please.

USA I don't think is Fools Gold. For a start there is a LFD shortage so sellers market. Furthermore, far more litigious - so you get infected by someone you sue. Super spreader events are traceable to individuals.

More importantly they rejected Chinese which means buying criteria are more aligned.

You might be right about Mologic - that company are able to sell more than one test. Here is a good one for $10 but for when you absolutely want to be sure here is an excellent one for $15. Companies with high value staff will want to be absolutely sure. Cruise industry. Financial industry.

Face to face meetings increasing - some might need to learn from mistakes but its coming.

Watch this space

No need to go that low. Let's call it Tuppence

Looking at it from an individual point of view most customers need something that works. No more no less. After that they might decide on price.

Therefore, targeting will be key. Which customers need the best test. Ah but those customers would use PCR if they needed best test.

So which customers need the best rapid test. My own feeling is customers who need to protect highly paid, difficult to replace staff from being infected. Dentists. I'm thinking dentists.

Thank you. Centurion post.

To be fair the protein folding came from his lordship.