Member Info for romaron

Very optimistic VCB as it represents a 25% increase. The numbers guys though can probably make a decent argument to support the possibility. It happens to other sectors when they're in favour and I could definitely see 1p a day as more people buy into EnQuest with the current tail wind behind us. Some of us here believe that there isn't the liquidity in this stock to enable it to satisfy further buying interest without breaking out.
Interestingly Baillie Gifford Tech fund was at the bottom of the ups/downs in yesterday's paper -11% whilst Petrofac was up 4%. (no mention EnQuest but that's not unusual). I bet Baillie Gifford are glad they've got a pure oil play in their portfolio.
For me personally 1p will pay for a new boiler, decorate lounge plus new sofa, chair and carpet.

We built it and they've started to come. Still room. Don't miss the boat.

Interesting view Juan. I obviously read it differently to you.

Yesterday was why we invest. It did have the impact of feeling you're on the winning team and have won the cup. I'd like to see consolidation now and a slower creep up. I'm still feeling euphoric. if it gets to 60p you won't even have to kiss me first.

Pelle - Therapist was being amusingly sardonic. Like you he is one of the nicer and brighter guys on here (I don't think it applies to me). He comes over as a thoroughly decent guy and a genuine holder, as do you.

*I'm being nice about Therapist because I may need his help in beating my 2 phobias. Camping and dogs.

"Commodity equities, in particular, are still very cheap and out of favor, even if they have risen from the bargain-basement levels of August 2020."

I wish I'd shorted Tesla. We know trees don't grow to the sky. We ignore history (bubbles) and nature (Covid) at our own risk. Much of life is simple and energy is an essential need. In many ways Trump gave the game away. In essence he is a small time Hotel hustler but he was mesmerised by oil and the Saudi wealth. The US don't keep their 5th fleet in the Middle East to enjoy the balmy weather.

Another excellent find Modestus.

Juan, your Fri 17.05 - that's banter, right?

Just getting a tad nervous about what'll happen when we hit 60p.

Analogy - As nervous as a small nun in a penguin colony during the breeding season.

I don't care. Its good news whatever way you look at it. I think what H was suggesting is that once you register an impairment there is more than one way to unwind it. That's why tax lawyers and accountants get paid so much. You choose what suits you most favourably. Nothing more to say; I'm already out of my depth.

Hi Pelle - L3's English isn't as good as yours but I'll attempt to translate. He has the personality of a flip-flop and learned humour from a teach yourself book. To him it is banter. To the rest of us with English as a first language it is his ludicrous talking down to people and about as far away from banter as you can get. He'd probably lecture Jeff Currie on not paying enough attention to detail and his pomposity is reflected in his handle "L3 trader". Now, that is a joke. In his dreams maybe. I met and know many traders and he wouldn't last 5 minutes. Him and gkb are like those guys eager to meet you at a new school or job. You think how considerate that they spend time with you, a newbie. The truth is nobody else talks to or engages with them. They are both anonymous and will stay that way, thank goodness and there is little danger of ever meeting up with them socially or at an AGM. Unfortunately they have latched on to you. They are like those crazy people who talk to themselves and sit next to you on a bus even though there are plenty of empty seats.
I think you got a result there E.

Hi hitman - that sounds a little like "creative" accounting. Not that I'm against it if it means the company gets the benefit back gradually. After waiting this long I'm happy to go along with that. For some of us here a steady growth means we can structure our finances with more confidence. I'm already revaluing my portfolio higher than 2 years ago even after Covid. This really is the icing on the cake. I intend to hold these for a few more years longer. The downturn lasted over half a decade and the next five years should cancel that out. I'll take my cue from AB

RB and HYN doing well today. Ridiculous that they're both below 90. For interest hunters looks a no-brainer. At 90 the RB gives a YTM of c. 11.50% - Not to be sneezed at.

*declaration of interest. I want it higher to finance my OO requirement. Less risky return than the equity but along with a few others here I'm anticipating a far bigger return by patiently holding the stock. A 150% return versus say 35%.

*save you getting the fag packet out Juan. I've used 60p for my sums.

On Northern Line and at Elephant & Castle. Had to deliver a phone. I wonder what will happen when the lockdown ends? It is eerie out there. I read Goldman's have 6,000 staff in the UK. Just 5% were in its London headquarters last week.
There is more than one reason to keep your head down and we've done well on what must be reduced activity. Get a noisy dealing room environment and turnover will double overnight. I know aolgos don't sleep but they do need stimuli.

.... back in the Perseverance Arms gkb is staring at a glass filled to the top and weighing up whether he's got the nuts to tell the landlord that the glass is too small. chilting has joined him for a glass of mineral water and a quinoa sandwich. There's a noisy crowd in the other bar. Some drunken Spaniard is leading the singing.

They had been drifting the past few days and the RB had the PIK maturity (15 Feb). It was as symptomatic of the overall bond market as an EnQuest indicator. The RB is now healthily trending up and we'll see what the HYNs says later. All looking tickety-boo.

Don't forget we still have the OO for $50mio to find. I actually welcome it now because it stops the price becoming over exuberant. Some people wanting to invest will shy away from from EnQuest because of this. They don't understand it. That means we should get the more intelligent investor who reads past the first page. The day traders don't really help as they only visit. This isn't really the stock for them. The professionals understand the reality of the oil world today.

Rumours everywhere. Squif caught smiling and gkb handlers keeping him away from window ledges.

Some of you don't have the mastery that I have with figures. Building a mouse trap is different to many other projects and many fail. In fact the percentage of failures is higher than comparative industries and they became unpopular and out of fashion. Electric mouse traps were the new big thing whilst hydrogen peroxide bait never really took off. However, the world still had an abundance of mice.
Apart from investing in mature industries I like the odd gamble and mouse traps have their own idiosyncracies. I have a small bet running on City Index where I bought 4,000 mouse traps at £1 that are now worth £3; in betting terms let's say 2:1. Quite good but not the return I am looking for. I put my major investment in a mouse-trap factory that is now producing them efficiently. I expect a similar return but at a much larger scale. the factory had some teething issues with licenses and plant but is now producing at a high rate. Many expected it to fail so I managed to buy more shares at a much cheaper level even than today's price. This is only the beginning. A party to celebrate is planned for those who kept the faith.

Build a better mousetrap, and the world will beat a path to your door.

City Index

Good morning Modestus. I agree with this article. I'd be interested in E121 and hitman's view of it too. My take is that as much as we like to believe that EnQuest and a few others are world beaters we really are here at the gift of the majors. Shale for a while competed with Las Vegas for risk but the rewards were almost by luck and unusually the creditors were also losers in the game too. Shale isn't going away but much of the better acreage is now owned by the "grown-ups" a.k.a. the majors. These "grown ups" are more important to creditors than the wild-catters and more importantly see the wider picture. They also hold conventional reserves which will do well going forward and it is usually wise not to shoot yourself in the foot. The creditors will wish to keep the majors sweet, as will the support companies. I don't think that too many are brave enough to antagonise the majors. They have a lot of lobbying power.
We won't know until we look backwards after a few months but this may well be the tipping point for oil and EnQuest. There is an element of last man standing in this. The future does look bright.

"Most climate proposals are based on consuming 25% less energy...There has not been a single 20-year period...where per capita demand has fallen by more than 0.1%."
--Goehring & Rozencwajg

Repeated by Art Berman on twitter today. I can't remember him referencing G&R before. I follow both. G&R are super rampers (doesn't make them wrong) but Art Berman is more circumspect. The first pessimistic geologist I've come across.

AB will have his own personal plans as we all have. I posted about the article because oil has had few fans among the institutions for 5 years. At my first EnQuest AGM Aberdeen Asset management made their last appearance. The sheer weight of money has pushed the undeserving to incredible heights (Tesla and bitcoin?). It is our time.
Renewables are a con. I'd like to see an end to poisonous emissions. I'd also like to see an end to wars and starvation. It seems that emissions are a priority whilst the US and Saudi Arabia starve and bomb children in Yemen. The world is f*cked up for sure. It is an oft used term but fundamentals really do matter. Some of the ratios you quote are just too true to be ignored for much longer. There are other oil companies to choose from and some I'm sure some are just as good but I trust this management.

Interesting article in today's Times about "special purpose acquisition companies" (Spacs). They comprised one half of all stock market listings in the US last year. More than 421 have been listed globally since the start of the year, raising $127bn, of which 405 were in the US. None in London. Are we missing out? I doubt it. They typically appear at the height of bubbles, when the appetite for shares is insatiable.
Stock markets are close to record highs, stock valuations on many metrics are close to levels seen in 2008. Well, you can stuff your Spacs because I'm sticking with oil which is the opposite of the above.
The last time the UK messed with spacs was around a decade ago when Nat Rothschild used a Spac to engineer the reverse takeover of Bumi, an Indonesian company. It didn't end well.
The deepest pool of capital and investor expertise is in the US, mainly in fintech and clean technology. They will be looking to spend their winnings and the UK is particularly weak due to Brexit and EU share dealing moving to Amsterdam. The US Spacs will probably go there first (Europe) but I fancy they're heading our way eventually.
Charlie Munger, no fan of Spacs said last week: "The investment banking profession will sell sh*t as long as sh*t can be sold."

Our mousetrap is expensive because it is the best. I doubt AB would let it go cheaply.