Member Info for romaron

The $50mio could have been down to one stubborn party insisting on it. Maybe whinging that he wouldn't get it past the signing off team if it wasn't included. You then had AB more or less say - "f**k it, I'll pay it if anybody has a problem".
Back on the NPV I wonder if Cairn painted themselves into a bit of a corner with their impairments.

But unfortunately not a lot wiser Whiteace.

Cairn is important (I suppose). I'm trying to get my head around why they have performed so badly (flatlined) this year whilst we have increased by c. 65%. I've picked 8 Jan because of the special dividend eligibility. CNE was around 207 and is now 185 so adding back the 32p gives you 217. Not quite flatlining (+4.5%) but underperforming their peers; or perhaps they aren't our peers? They have fallen behind in scale terms and the hope of the Indian tax payment is what holds the price at this level. Personally I have my doubts about them ever receiving the money; electric gunboats don't have the same impact as those of previous centuries. They do seem to have lost their way a little. Their timing of the sale was a little unfortunate as at hand shaking time the price of oil would have been lower.

clarification needed: meters (sic) could mean gas and electric meters. Back in the day "meters" were coin fed and an attractive target for some. I believe Juan used the US spelling and meant "metres".

*Certain groups end up in the same industry through friends and family connections. I've got a pal from Dagenham where it even narrowed down to one small area of a few streets and they all worked "on the gas". They obviously became skilled and aware of how to handle gas safely. many of the meters there ran "backwards" at different times because they knew when the meterman was due (family connection). It is rumoured that it led to a micro-climate in the area because so many were doing it. You could buy home grown fresh tomatoes in January.

Spooky, I knew there was a market connection, Juan and oranges! My birth certificate says Chingford but I was actually born in Brook Rd. Buckhurst Hill. So you must know Charlie Chan's. I was pretty feral as a child and spent a lot of time in Epping Forest. A pal of mine actually had a fruit & veg stall in Walthamstow market. I'm older than you and can remember the trolleybuses that became redundant running in the area. 50 years later electricity for transport is catching on I hear.
I was brought up on Debden Council estate. Still meet pals from there and around. Small world.

pencilled in for 25 March (enquest.com)

Sometimes investors race a bit ahead of technology. I've been doing some research and John Constable invented wind energy some 200 odd years ago. It has taken some time to become popular again and is still more expensive than fossil fuels. The Dutch argue that windmills are even older.
https://collections.vam.ac.uk/item/O83785/a-windmill-on-the-downs-oil-painting-constable-john-ra/

Marching forward to a better yesterday (tell that to Asia)

Do any of us really understand these figures? We are all desperate for indicators but you need to know the weather conditions, refinery demands and storage facility without worrying about ships and the right oil being in the wrong place or China/India's strategy. It goes on and Vitoil will tell us after it's over but they're concentrating on further ahead.
First of all they're historical. Markets crave figures, even when they're unreliable or give the wrong message. We all do it. take today's level for oil and extrapolate it out. Smart money isn't avoiding oil. They have to make decisions much further ahead. They accept that investors concentrate on spot oil but to produce it takes years.

What is most important is supply in 3 months and further forward. Unfortunately retail investors who have limited knowledge give these figures a higher importance than they deserve imo. They are a rough guide for now. A comparison would be the port blockages that are being worked through. They skew the import/export figures and could lead to miscalculations.

Up over a $100. the world has gone mad! Who'd be an investor!

I probably make a classic mistake and assume that Norwegians and Swedes are similar. I also assume that the Scandinavian countries have a tendency to prefer investing in each other's companies because of common culture and understanding?
I've only known Dutch and Danish people well. They have a common trait between them and that is being "careful" with money and an aversion to paying over the odds and loving a bargain.
This Waldorf business is intriguing. Cairn have been less than enthusiastic in Kraken since I've been invested here and they must have been royally pssd off with PMO mismanagement. I kinda get why they wanted out (whatever the official reason) and I suspect there is little love lost between Cairn and EnQuest. Maybe Waldorf wanted to be involved with EnQuest and a trial living together with Kraken would draw them closer. It is possible that they only wanted Kraken but had to take Catcher too.
The supposedly kiddie steps by Waldorf are kinda spoiled by their purchase of a business (Endeavour) with $1.2bn tax loss. Added to that their is this mysterious Norwegian, Paal Hveem who controls 35% of Waldorf? The involvement of ex Statoil personnel, Pareto and financing by Sculptor make it appear that this isn't an amateur start up of pals looking for something to do. I'd imagine there are some ex Statoil people who believe in Bressay and that is the target. I think it quite conceivable that a new company can be formed by EnQuest and Waldorf to maximise and combine the tax advantages they have.
It requires strong leaders with vision and this could be a good match.
Personally I think that tapping private funds for finance may have to be the way forward as traditional RBL comes under pressure and ESG forces some banks to retreat from the sector. I don't think this really bothers AB as he has been unconventional most of his life.

*Aaditya Chintalapati (CFO) who must have researched countless small and mid-cap oil companies and capital raises has chosen to work for Waldorf. Most sell-side analysts are notoriously careful and cynical. Why this vehicle?

I couldn't find mine the other day and thought I'd call my mobile number. Then I remembered it was the glasses I was looking for. It's all a bit worrying.

..........and then you'd say gbk that it is too many eggs in one basket and the Iranians will torpedo the FPSO or an iceberg could bump into it. Afraid your credibility and focus on negatives spoils most of your contributions.
Even the majors like to share fields.

I posted this on 20 Feb " The guy at Waldorf is ex Goldman's. Access to capital keeps him awake but I'm as interested in his story. He has plans for that tax loss. We have one too. Don't forget its value.
I also liked the presentations of Lundin Energy and International Petroleum Corp. Both potential future investment for me."

What a memory. Now all I need is to train it to find my phone, glasses and remember what I had for breakfast. it's actually simpler than that. The Waldorf Hotel is a well known landmark at Aldwych and at one time Citibank's HQ was opposite it in The Strand. Two good restaurants nearby -The Delaunay and Brasserie Zedel (a favourite of mine). The Zedel isn't easy to find but is good value and will impress. I think it's because I remember the important things!

Anybody worked out what this values Kraken at? No doubt there'll be contingency considerations depending on oil price so it won't be simple?

aaditya chintalapati

https://vimeo.com/user126234410/review/513380225/1241b67e0c

They bought $1.2bn tax losses when they set up. Bit like Harbour and PMO. Easy to forget tax losses. They like Kraken obviously.

No RNS from EnQuest. I doubt Waldorf would go ahead if EnQuest weren't happy. I couldn't workout why the guy would leave the comfort of Goldman's and set out in a seemingly different direction. They don't always get it right but these Goldman people are always formidably bright and ambitious. I guess he knows Jeff Currie to.

It'll be embarrassing if I've got the wrong guy. Off to read my not so old posts.

Wasn't Waldorf one of the companies that linked to an article that Pelle found? A seminar over 2 days some weeks ago. An ex Goldman guy interested in tax losses was the Waldorf representative. I like the sound of this. They aren't your usual O&G company. There is a bigger plan imo.

I'm not always at the cutting edge but the current financial buzz word is "rotation". The equity market is moving from "growth" stocks to value "stocks". That's all you need to know and that will get you 3 minutes on Bloomberg or 15 minutes with Malcy. In either case it's all *******s.
Aren't we [EnQuest] a "growth" stock? We've been talking "value" for the past 2 years at least. Basically they are as clueless as the rest of us. In fact, you could argue we're ahead of the pundits.
It was only a few weeks ago we were discussing how "overvalued" Tesla was (c.800 now 565). Where did all that hot money go? These were punters not sophisticated professional investors. I believe most markets are judged in the rear view mirror and a jargon filled interview telling us what we already know and giving forward advice with so many caveats that make it useless. A tossed coin would be as good.
I'll stick with a well run company with an essential product that survived the "shale bubble" and can provide serious projections that will provide investors with a reliable positive cash flow. I'll think of some glib phrase so you'll think I'm clever too.
Ooops, I forgot to mention inflation and bond yields. My cover as an investment guru has already been blown!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wREBD2og5iY (rotation song)

If you'd invested $3m and turned it into $22m you'd feel pretty pleased I imagine. Not if you were at Goldman's you wouldn't. Interesting article about "take a profit and cry". https://www.ft.com/content/f8f8b067-e663-4afe-90dd-6a243929af86
What drew me to it though is the author Lawrence Burns who is an investment manager at Baillie Gifford. Might not be his area but shines a light on their thinking. They have been a LTH of EnQuest. They say they have no short term commercial imperatives and no outside shareholders to distract them. They think in decades not quarters.

I'm not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing. Patience is one thing but decades? They look for exceptional growth companies. They typically hold stocks for 5-10 years. They like founder led or family run companies.

For newbies: "pier pressure" is the feeling of emptiness when you see an opportunity sailing away. The less poetical call it FOMO. I cannot speak for other LTHs but whilst on the surface keeping up a show of confidence I will admit it was severely tested last March with the low 8p's. We are now patting ourselves on the back and pretending we're Warren Buffet.
Some will say we're not there yet but there has definitely been a sea change in attitude towards commodities. Reading latest analysis and media comment they have (as usual) begun to abandon ship on the erstwhile high fliers. Do they believe it or do the algos write media headlines too? Don't know, don't care. Happy to make the 'trend my friend'.
There is an undercurrent of talk about dividends around and I expect us to be affected by the other pressure known as "peer pressure". Harbour and Cairn will pay dividends. I expect the NS oil companies to be divided by those that pay dividend and those that don't. I feel sure we will want to be in the former. New financing arrangements should facilitate the ability to pay them and will benefit shareholders and the foundation.
I'm sure the management are as aware as us that announcing a dividend will make us highly investible and attractive to institutional funds. It cannot be far away.
I wonder what tomorrow holds? Should be good as Brent climbed after the close on Friday and the US stimulus package is almost complete.

Be Lucky.

Whilst we are all concentrating on the overt racism exhibited toward Harry and Meghan (I mean, ginger people deserve the same rights as the rest of us) it might seem a wee bit crass of me to bring up what some might consider a mere slight or attempt at humour by a regular on here towards me (Sat 10:39).

Well, I am actually a sensitive soul and do have fears relating towards camping and dogs. I thought a poster who deals with personality disorders and has taken the hypocrites oath might have taken my request more seriously and I’m posting this in the hope that there might be a second opinion out there who might have experience or advice.

It started recently and appears to be getting worse as I get older. I used to quite like the outdoors but now camping fills me with fear. It has become dangerous. Have you noticed how many dead bodies are found in tents and they are springing up in the most unusual places? Housing estates, waste land and municipal parks (I thought they banned camping?) for example. The police are busy enough with Covid without having to divert resources to another epidemic.

I love dogs and everyday l miss Bubbles our little Yorkie who died last March. However, certain dogs again fill me with fear and I cannot go near them. My biggest fear is Labradors. Have you noticed how many of their owners go blind?

I’ve begun to rely more on this board as a support mechanism as I become increasingly paranoid. Perhaps just being able to go back to the pub will cure me. I hope I haven’t spoiled your Sunday morning.

Be careful out there!