Member Info for romaron

Checked today's price. Expecting the worse and surprised to see it up from 83.936 yesterday to 85.305. They aren't worried about the debt.

*if any body bumps into Ammu tell him I might have a job for him. A pal is looking for a clown. Must be prepared to work funny hours.

Hi PR. re your 12.54 - could this be because as Tom was saying they are subject to non-disclosure agreements and cannot really go into detail with the new RCF and prospectus being negotiated and written? You can hardly have PIK if you're considering dividends in the future. I think the problem with today is that EnQuest is being played as a spot Brent trade and we know that makes no sense in the bigger picture. Then there is Covid of course which will eventually be beaten. Indeed. in the UK we are weeks away from ending lockdown for good. I am surprised at the beating we've taken these past days. Most regulars here are fully aware of the inherent value in the company.

Hi Tom -the webcast is up and I listened again to the end Feb debt question (1:01:10) and I heard it differently this time with a "prospectus hat" on. A comparison was a presentation by Chrysaor and the PMO tie up recently. They just couldn't give specific details and some of the phrases are similar. To the analysts there they understand what can and cannot be said but it doesn't stop them trying. Probably easier to steer away from an actual figure and say more or less "as you'd expect". JS used "ball-park" when talking about debt end 2021. I suppose you can throw in the point that the presentation is not being watched by everybody live and you could breach rules by accidentally releasing figures that affect the market price. Better to be on the safe side and give a broader answer.

Modestus - good memory. I only threw in PFC because it is AB's alma mater and similar in structure to us (large family shareholding and ME roots). Also an outside chance that they could get closer.

Thanks for that Tom "If they misquote on the call they will have to revise up or down in the prospectus."

There hands are tied to an extent. He probably wasn't being evasive just that anything from February onwards has "prospectus" complications with lawyers and accountants micro-inspecting. Possibly a line in the sand is drawn and basically everything is kinda sub judice to an extent. Does that make sense?

Hi Squif -I agree to a point but this time it was JS who was evasive. They have to be careful about what they say and we know that accountants and lawyers just love a caveat. I thought the question of what was net debt at end of Feb was fairly innocuous. All he'd say was "within expectations". I take that to mean we had a couple of adverse events in Jan/Feb which whilst not crippling were within the bands but they're wide anyway. He should have given the number and added the reasons imo. We're not stupid and it would have a calming effect. I did like the talk of dividends once net debt/ebitda was 1.00 or lower. Dividend is preferred to share buy back.
We'll have to listen to the QA again when the webcast is ready. Hard to get stuff first go.
EnQuest Producer has plenty of interest whether for sale or redeployment. Active discussions ongoing.
I thought AB was pretty upbeat. JS not so much but he has to be careful what he says. He got a question about PIK to 2023 - he didn't have the answer and I think it was pretty hypothetical anyway. All in all a good presentation imo.

In an emergency you can drink your own urine. Lucky for you hitman that your Wi-Fi came back just as you were filling the bottle.

*I've been looking at my purchases too. 8p, 12p, 13p. It's them buggers at 28p and 56p that mess me up.

I've been so lonely and sad recently that I have taken out PPI insurance just so that people will ring me.

I'm with you there Dodger. Hard to defend the EU stance. There's a fire or tidal wave heading your way but you can't cross the road to get away because the traffic lights aren't showing green. There are many talented and able nations in the EU but they are held back by a sclerotic bureaucracy and CYA. There'll be ramifications over there and sadly a lot of problems will follow; civil strife for sure.
Mind you the EU is playing its part - from the excellent article PR found "floor-to-ceiling stainless steel vats imported from Europe that cost upward of $4 million each" - Europe also makes (I'm told) fine fiddles that go back as far as the emperor Nero.

*if you're a CNE holder I wouldn't hold your breath for that tax windfall from India. I don't think it would go down well at this time.

"Big oil is dead. By 2035, energy will essentially be free."

I can see what he's trying to get at but I'm trying to get an analogy. Sunshine, wind and water are supposedly free. Turning them into energy isn't. Wind is free but costs the insurance industry billions as does flooding whilst skin cancer supports the sun cream industry, never mind what it does to my paintwork! My water bills NEVER go down. 2035 is 14 years away. How long have M&S got or Boeing?
If you follow the green agenda then what he says is music to your ears but the chances of it actually happening are practically zero in the time span imo. Nice to see that there is disagreement within Baillie Gifford. They can't both be right. I suppose the pedants among you will say that he says "big oil" but the way things are going we will be big oil by then. What is today "Big oil" will be in alternative energy or so they'd like us to believe. Dunno about you lot but I find the comment strangely encouraging.

Our MC is now bigger than Petrofac's.

1. On British business ambition - "We fail at every level - from management softness, to investment feebleness, to societal love of the safe return over the spectacular possibilities. I see nothing on the horizon to change this terrible record. It's very sad."
2. On oil - "Big oil is dead. By 2035, energy will essentially be free."
3. On big pharma - "In a real mess."
4. On Warren Buffet - The face of an "outmoded doctrine" that had condemned savers to poorer returns.
5. On the City's risk aversion - "Profound biases in markets throw up huge opportunities.
6. On the traditional City - "Too stupid."
7. On the Financial Times - "The London financial community's Pravda equivalent."
All opinion but from one of the most successful Investment Trust managers in the UK who is seen as maverick, opinionated and deeply disparaging of the traditional investment industry. I don't know why but I thought of you? Of course I was immediately drawn to No.2. The individual is James Anderson who is a partner of Baillie Gifford who after AB are one of our biggest shareholders. I fancy a dash of hubris heading his way but it doesn't make him wrong. I read with interest your posts on Placera as TBH there isn't much worth reading here. There is much ignorance of what constitutes the oil market and I accept my level of ignorance but I did work in the City and James Anderson is largely correct as is your post.
I posted on Friday about supertankers and it didn't receive one comment on the subject (plenty of other unassociated puerile comment) but noticed that you mentioned them in your Placera post. I find it interesting that nobody was interested in the floating storage side of the article or ships having their highest scrap value since 2014 on this message board. I'm not expecting much value from EnQuest Producer but I'd love to know their plans for it?

Be lucky

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/oil-supertankers-losing-millions-but-why-tanker-stocks-are-rallying-11615976096069.html

I think EnQuest is more than a vicarious way to trade spot Brent. Not pleasant to see the price of both falling but from my experience temporary gluts often indicate a shortage around the corner. Perhaps following the tanker market might be more useful. They, like EnQuest accept the front end movements but their expenditure and production has to be planned months and years ahead. Febrile day traders are welcome to trade these movements. I'm looking at Q2 and Q3.
Tanker rates are negative but the owners are seeing their share prices rise. Even the high scrap value isn't of interest and there has been relatively few new vessels being built. They see the position changing before long.

Mr B - 2 RNS's. reported 5 Feb: less than 5% > 5.03% and 17 Mar 5.03%>5.97%

Interestingly on a down day for bonds the PFG bonds have done pretty well. Obviously we don't know what the ongoing discussions will lead to but I suspect slight downward pressure on the equity as after a dip like we've had a placing (dilution) narrative often follows. For me the canary in the mine is the bonds and we aren't under any threat of insolvency whatever the more excitable and ill-informed post.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/search?searchtype=all&q=provident%20financial%20plc

Van Kuffeler poached the best from PFG. That went well. The management are never blameless but I think you'll find that a combination of the FOS, FCA and claims companies had something to do with it too. HRMC also poked their nose in.
Would you like Peter Crook and Chris Gillespie back?
Let's hope a revitalised Malcolm Le May plays hardball. Early signs are encouraging.

I may as well join a conversation that has my nickname as the subject. I may post more often anyway as it appears that things have finally livened up. Today's RNS is evidence and from wikipedia "Davidson Kempner uses a fundamental analysis, bottom-up approach to make its investments.[13][14] The firm focuses on five investment strategies: merger arbitrage, distressed investments, long/short equity, convertible bonds arbitrage and long/short credit, with a particular focus on distressed investments and merger arbitrage"
When companies are in trouble hedge funds don't usually BUY the stock. There could of course be arbitrage possibilities and hedges that we know nothing about. Death spiral financiers are often attracted by distressed debt in the first place and will buy it and then use the inevitable equity raises as a hedge on their position; first dibs and all that. We as retail investors never get the full picture and when we do the professionals have known about it before us. Fortunately our debt isn't distressed and has a long way to go before it is time to worry. Our bonds have hardly reacted so I read this as an equity play.
Some years ago I ran PFG past an accountant friend to look for warning signs. He said it was a remarkably simple model and the risk (apart from non-payers) was from Government legislation. Seems he was right.
I took out a Vanquis credit card a few years back (they cancelled it as I never used it after a couple of years) to experience what a new customer would face. It was very exhaustive and included telephone interviews. Governance there is strict. CCD is clearly not so good but they were using amateur part-timers for a long time. Van Kuffeler (NSF) poached staff from PFG and held on to the model even longer - they are beyond help [NSF] imo but he did attend William and Kate's wedding so may have influence.
I don't see a particular rush here and we'll get more clarity with the year end figures in April but I expect to buy more.
It is pointless railing at the reclaim companies as they are as deaf to us as the sea is to a drowning sailor. I will write though to the FCA and PFG stating that I agree with protecting vulnerable borrowers but disagree with subsidising US law firms and feckless individuals who know exactly what they are doing. There is a social need for companies like PFG and us shareholders need some protection as we have already paid tax on our investment.
This is worth (at least) £5 a share imo.

*I don't really see Klarna or any new fintech company displacing us. They are more a challenge to existing credit card companies and PFG have a large enough moat to protect us from any Wonga type start up. It'll be interesting to see how PFG fight back. I think the timing is right. I think the country is tired of looking (and receiving) for handouts.

Oh dear Timmy. I realise that English is not your first language (if it's dyslexia I apologise) but you really don't understand what I've written. I even tried to help with the reference to bonds. They are higher than when I posted and that destroys your argument. I accept that you don't understand markets. I do.
I only responded because of your puerile claims. Hamish Paton quickly realised the mistake he had made in joining Amigo from Brighthouse (5 months) and his experience in the sub-prime market is obviously valuable. His time at PFG is short and I don't blame him for the existing problem loans. As for me not being aware I'd point you to my post of 3 July 2019.
I did try with you but I'm afraid that you are an excitable day trader who would probably struggle with coin tossing. I wish you well but afraid I'm afraid going to Filter you. You bring zero to any discussion and are an unwelcome distraction. I hope others have taken note of your ignorance and inexperience.

timmycoles - Amigo is finished. The mainstream banks haven't wanted these poorly served customers for decades. Nothing has changed there. PFG have my backing in standing up to these claims companies one of which , Allison Allcot, is US based. I've checked but they are not a registered charity. There will be some deserving cases but some cases go back to 2007. A normal person is unlikely to have records that far back. These reclaim companies are the vultures and abusing the British system. what is their percentage of any "winnings". They're like locusts. PPI is finished (August 2019) so they move on like locusts to the next field. I'm for those cheated but not American lawyers and grifters whose own charges are exorbitant.
We don't know what PFG will offer those entitled. Take away the lawyers fee and there is probably a deal there. PFG will send letters direct to those involved. I hope the lawyers lose!
Le May is being portrayed as the villain here but those supporting the underserved do "very well" out of this situation and even the Debt charities need to pay staff salaries. Even the ombudsman fee of £650 for each case is paid for by PFG. A nice little earner. These claims companies use this to their advantage too.
Le May has my support. I hope he's well enough after his surgery to play hardball.

dalesflyer - why are you here? I take it from your disgusting terminology "sink society" that you are not invested. My family relied on PFG when nobody else was there. Any reason why I shouldn't Filter you?

I will agree that the current narrative and sentiment towards money lenders is not good. However it is sometimes worth stepping back and looking at what smart money and those who have greater security than the equity holders are doing. These boards are for all but with a combination of day traders, trolls and people like myself with little else to do. ATM there are an excess of trolls here. I am a retail investor of the equity and disregard 90 percent that is written on message boards. However, I have also found some very knowledgeable posters which make them worth reading.
This is over a year old but I have a pal who had a tenant who worked for the FCA. I asked him that could he slip in PFG as regards complaints next time they spoke. He did and the response was that the tenant knew little of particulars but that complaints then were at the low end.
I have an old Mercedes but am continually hounded by companies telling me that I can join a class action to maybe win some money back. I ignore them but an out of work Uber driver might be tempted? Companies under pressure then have a decision to make and sometimes it is cheaper to pay up than spend time and money fighting. Good companies get drawn in as well as bad. I believe PFG had good governance whilst Amigo deserve everything they get.
The bond market is far larger than the equity market and is often the canary in the cage. They took a knock but nothing that indicates a fatal wound. The Bond that they partially bought back at tender in August rose towards 100 but is back close to the August price: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/search?searchtype=all&q=provident%20financial%20plc
That is NOT a collapse or indicative of structuralweakness.
When I get time I may look at how much income the company could make (or be allowed to) by taking deposits on Vanquis and buying back bonds.
Nobody really cares about the equity holders and the FCA is acting like the Stasi. I think that PFG's stance needed to be taken. There will always be the underserved with a poor credit history and the majority are not feckless. the alternatives are far more dangerous. I hope that the FCA are keeping an eye on Klarna.

*Vanquis 2 year bond pays 0.20% - the PFG 43ZF maturity (£65m) pays a YTM of around 9%
The more pressing maturity in September is a YTM of around 14% but I doubt any of us could get on board. The bond holders are ALWAYS nervous but I'm seeing a knee jerk, justifiable concern, not baling out.

Sorry Juan- you've joined them. Why not just put subject EU, Brexit or something like that? I now understand why E121 left.