Member Info for romaron

Bloomberg been talking since financial (5 April) year end about sellers strike. Fed minutes etc and the hot money and traders that can't sit still have been buying tech. Energy one of worse worse performers along with value stocks. My theory is that some sell them to buy tech. Self fulfilling to an extent and I'm not buying it.
Directionless and low volume.
Its all about trends and fashion. They said flares and cuban heels wouldn't return.

Hi E - afraid I have to disagree with "Enquest is still a bargain at these levels". It is a bargain at 30p. At this level it is the equivalent of stock clearance. No ox carts on the North Circular today. Too many cars & lorries whizzing by.

Hi GA - still here and still strong. Senseless staring at screen or posting much as hitman says. The algorithms fill any gap or weakness. Got plenty of other stuff to keep me occupied. I can't see Europe and other parts of the world remain quivering in their shelters whilst other economies roar ahead and their nationals enjoy partying, eating out taking holidays etc.
I understand the initial reasons for lockdown and sympathise for those infected but we're now getting close to banning aspirin because there is a slight risk. Every flight risks DVT but it doesn't seem to deter a lot of people.

Hi LayLadyLay - I believe we've crossed swords before and when we disagreed we were polite to each other. I have held PMO and believe they are a first rate investment although I don't hold at present. I think Linda Cook is a self-publicist and extremely well connected. EIG are super smart but not a charity. I'm here because HBR have a strategy that I hope ENQ follow. A lot of stuff is subjective here but in NS terms we're both Championship but you have more points than us at present. Totally agree with the early days scenario. Present events are the unwinding of PMO holdings and exacerbated by patchy recoveries worldwide. US are self-sufficient energy wise more or less so they get first dibs locally and I hear their production has reacted swiftly. LC and team are looking further ahead than most PIs.

Be Lucky - hope to meet you in the play-offs.

EIG shareholders have done best to date. In some ways PMO was ravished. We've had our problems but we are well set up to achieve an even better return. I want and expect HBR to succeed. The have a bigger profile and attract more analyst coverage. They are earlier movers than us but it is the same journey.

Build it and they will come: Linda Cook April presentation. Not the exact words but FTSE 100 aim says the same.

Well I disagree with most of those numbers too. There is a relative amount of subjectivity in these approaches which is why I tried to get something going a few days back. It helps when you get the number guys arguing. Pelle is better than me at them so probably better here than start cross contamination.
The question is whether HBR is over/under valued more. I believe HBR is a good bet and we compare favourably. Our debt is relatively short term and comes into it as does reserves and production before we even consider FCF.
If HBR is correctly priced we are underpriced imo.

Which is exactly what Linda Cook said would be addressed earlier this month.

.com April forecasts out.
For those too lazy to look:
2021 62.50 (9m)
2022 61.20
2023 58.78

Hi Nofear - it popped up on my phone. WSJ and Reuters. EIG are a lot more confident than some here. I try not to listen to the noise. Announced Friday I believe.

Saudi Arabia's state energy giant said it has sold 49 percent of Aramco Oil Pipelines to investors led by Washington based EIG Global Partners. EIG beat bids from Blackrock and Brookfield asset management. Warren Buffet recently bought a gas pipeline.
Kinda goes against the ESG narrative that oil is finished. Say one thing and do another.
EIG move inexalted circles. An attack from the likes of ARMC would be like a mosquito attacking a buffalo. The view is not tomorrow or next month. Plenty of upside here.

Thanks for simplifying Wasp. Whatever your opinion EIG are onside because they have to be. They are easily capable of dealing with the likes of ARCM. Those outside of lockup are exposed too and after the initial tidying up decisions will have to be made. A lot of decisions have already been made with minimised risk. The debt is 5 percentish and you don't get those rates if you're sub prime. Those not along for the ride may well decide to hang on for now. Just because they can sell doesn't mean they will.

Hi Wasp - to understand the process fully I'd need all the figures in front of me and I'd still need help but these really are early days. Linda Cook, Phil Kirk and EIG are not dopes and will have allowed for this. To encourage the creditors there would have been tidbits to encourage them to sign up but once the starting pistol went some will have sold immediately but they aren't commercially suicidal. Overall volume in markets has been low and it was lowest since 2014 I heard on Bloomberg. Some impressive profits were made by some funds who bought the PMO debt and I've checked and none are charities. Last week oil was sold off and next week could easily be different. US pump prices close to $3 and $4 in California. It wasn't long ago they were talking $1. These ex creditors may be willing sellers but not at silly prices. In fact they are probably complaing that they are being ripped off by Goldman's and the like taking advantage and dropping the bids. It is usual in markets to drop bids to accomodate size especially in these unusual times. Whose got the biggest balls? Those taking a profit or those buying size? There are funds prepared to take this early selling which was always on the cards.
Be Lucky.

Transition is the posh word, euphemism, call it what you like but there's $80 bn on the table according to Linda Cook. We aren't firefighting at present and if you look at the next few years we'll be well placed. I'm getting worried L7. I'm agreeing with you too much.

Hi L7, I don't really disagree with anything you say and you have alighted on the problem. When a stock has been abandoned by institutions then a message board isn't gonna solve it. This is why the success (or not) of HBR is so important to us. The amounts currently changing hands on HBR can only be absorbed by institutions and hedge funds and this is a weighed decision by (basically) EIG. Linda Cook has voiced what some on here have been advocating for years. Get the FCF at a reasonable level, offer share buy back or start paying dividends. Linda Cook isn't reticent in the slightest and is even promoting FTSE100 inclusion. I'm not getting carried away but if EIG have timed it right there is a goodchance of it happening. That is why I am following HBR. They have a much higher profile than us and a frequent news flow. Equity turnover is low around the world and ours this week has been abysmal. I'm happy with my numbers because Of the tolerance I've given them. I don't aim for pin point accuracies but like to know if I've made a major ricket which is why I welcome input from people like yourself. There is only one way for EnQuest to rise and that is by the numbers doing the talking. We aren't that different to HBR and the advantages of scale only go so far.
Thanks for reply.

The biggest game in town (oilwise) is Harbour as it goes through its birthing pains. It does give us clues imo. I'm using Peel Hunt and Barclays guesses for HBR. 2021 ebitda $2.25bn on c.200k boepd and $2.26 bn on c. 220 boepd 2022. The split is 55/45 oil gas and they use $60 for oil and I used a generous $48 for gas. So kinda $55 against our $60. I ended up with ENQ ebitda on 60k boepd as $730m 2021 and $670m 2022. I'm not after accuracy but ball park as these are are around suggestions I've read here and for both companies are broadly similar except in scale.
Barclays suggest FCF of $ 1.1 bn for 2022 which works back to some of the numbers kicked around here so I've established an arguable use of HBR as a proxy. What is even more interesting for me is that HBR is being talked of as a £4bn company. Working convolutedly back via production and ignoring debt to an extent because I think we compare very well anyway I get a price for EnQuest of North of £1bn which for me keeps bringing us back to a figure of 60p a share.
I realise there is an element of fag packet calculations here but I can only draw the conclusion that either HBR is overvalued or we are grossly undervalued. Come on HBR.

* The EOR sanction at Captain (heavy oil) by Ithaca augurs well for Kraken imo.

It is a given that if dividend is on the cards capital appreciation will be ongoing (imo)

The previous were not my views but analysts views. Ignoring the volatility which PMO brings I read this as the best way to extract value for an oil company is to attract institutional support which was the purpose of my 'Deplorable' post before it got hijacked.
We cannot achieve the scale of Harbour anytime soon but I sense that there is a little too much hype with HBR. They were debt free (apparently) but it seems EIG want their money back. You can't call it a debt but it is a shareholder wanting its money back so a bit grey to me. The production of HBR is 50/50 ish between oil & gas and needs the more number happy guys here to spend a few minutes to see if there is a valid comparison (ignoring scale) between HBR and ENQ. Their revenue will be affected by the lower gas element and one analyst did query the opex of the gas (higher than Norway).
What really matters though imo is dividend. Without that you won't get the LTHs that companies like to have invested.
I suspect that in a comparison test we won't come out too bad compared to HBR. Maybe Pelle or Tarmak could have a go and I know hitman, L7 or E121 are more than capable.
We need HBR to do well and they have a bigger presence and plenty of PR drive so will be quite a good indicator for the direction of our shares. If we (on paper) are as good as them but smaller it could drag our price with them. There is a commonality between us with tax credits which by HBR actions reinforces their value.

Build it and they will come - that's what Linda Cook believes.

(cont)
Mr Riding does expect Harbour’s shares to stabilise as the business builds “a new institutional following”.
“Overall, Harbour offers significantly improved balance sheet strength, cash flow generation, and income potential compared to Premier as a standalone business.”
Nathan Piper, head of oil and gas research at Investec Securities, said: “Harbour Energy certainly brings much needed scale and balance sheet strength back to the London listed E&P sector.
“The performance over the coming months should determine if there is the appetite for the high-quality management team and strong cash flows that Harbour offers the market.”

Probably futile but a chance we might bring this message board back to "EnQuest Share chat" before he throws another fire blanket of banality and irrelevance on this discussion. You never know, he might have a life away from here.
The analysts had this to say about Harbour:
Al Stanton, Edinburgh-based analyst at RBC Europe, said: “We expect Harbour to be a FTSE 250 constituent, and a move to the FTSE 100 seems likely.”
Most of the shares are locked in for six to 12 months, but about 23% — held largely by former Premier shareholders and creditors — are not subject to any lock ups.
Werner Riding, analyst at Peel Hunt, said the shares may experience short-term volatility as creditors decide whether to hold or sell.
Mr Riding does expect Harbour’s shares to stabilise as the business builds “a new institutional following”.
“Overall, Harbour offers significantly improved balance sheet strength, cash flow generation, and income potential compared to Premier as a standalone business.”
Nathan Piper, head of oil and gas research at Investec Securities, said: “Harbour Energy certainly brings much needed scale and balance sheet strength back to the London listed E&P sector.
“The performance over the coming months should determine if there is the appetite for the high-quality management team and strong cash flows that Harbour offers the market.”
Al Stanton, Edinburgh-based analyst at RBC Europe, said: “We expect Harbour to be a FTSE 250 constituent, and a move to the FTSE 100 seems likely.”
Most of the shares are locked in for six to 12 months, but about 23% — held largely by former Premier shareholders and creditors — are not subject to any lock ups.
Werner Riding, analyst at Peel Hunt, said the shares may experience short-term volatility as creditors decide whether to hold or sell.
Mr Riding does expect Harbour’s shares to stabilise as the business builds “a new institutional following”.
“Overall, Harbour offers significantly improved balance sheet strength, cash flow generation, and income potential compared to Premier as a standalone business.”
Nathan Piper, head of oil and gas research at Investec Securities, said: “Harbour Energy certainly brings much needed scale and balance sheet strength back to the London listed E&P sector.
“The performance over the coming months should determine if there is the appetite for the high-quality management team and strong cash flows that Harbour offers the market.”
Al Stanton, Edinburgh-based analyst at RBC Europe, said: “We expect Harbour to be a FTSE 250 constituent, and a move to the FTSE 100 seems likely.”
Most of the shares are locked in for six to 12 months, but about 23% — held largely by former Premier shareholders and creditors — are not subject to any lock ups.
Werner Riding, analyst at Peel Hunt, said the shares may experience short-term volatility as creditors decide whether to hold or sell.
Mr Riding does expect Harbour’s shares to stabilise as the business builds “a new institutional f

As usual chilting totally misses the point. I don't think we require more volatility. He's not invested but haunts this message board. Possibly because he isn't wanted elsewhere? I actually think it rude to be non-invested but have an opinion on practically every post and barge in with his puerile, might do this, might do that comments. How about an original thought? He adds zero to any debate and the post was not aimed at him. He doesn't even qualify as the man on the Clapham omnibus unless he's the guy talking to himself.

*To whoever invented the zero. Thanks for nothing.

Off to Peckham now.