Member Info for romaron

...for our Swedish friends. Is there an uncrossing trade/fixing for stocks on the Swedish stock exchange? I'm assuming there has to be. In times like these they tell you more than the usual trading amounts. Any info welcome.

Hi Twalboy - "where is he/Ammu btw?" He's behind you but he's acting like a reformed character. Calls himself mrc now.
Shame really because he seems to know a bit about the oil business. Not sure if this off the peg personality will last as long as the last one.
Latest on Ammu was that he's auditioning for Dick Whittington at the New Wimbledon Theatre, by zoom. I heard he'd given up on investing and going back to his old job. We wish him all the best.

Hi Pelle - just passing on. I'm gonna talk to him tomorrow afternoon. It doesn't change any of my theories. I've found that when talking to people in specific roles they're often quite ignorant or disinterested in the mechanics of the role. If it doesn't affect them directly why bother is often the case. I have asked them questions that they cannot answer. This chap was once the chief dealer of Barclays. A lovely guy - there weren't many like that in the City. Some called me Rottweiler Ron where I worked because of the alliteration - I was a pussy cat really.

I got an email response from my ex neighbour.

"Hello Ron,
It has been a while since I traded Oils but usually stocks that are dual listed are ‘convertible/fungible’ which means they are interchangeable.
If there is often 4x more turnover in Sweden, it might be because more of the share capital is in Sweden. For instance, if there were very few UK based shareholders left, then you might expect there to be less trade here.
Sometimes, there is more appetite for a stock in one country or a large order in one country which can affect volume or it might be as simple as there are 4 Swedish shares for 1 UK share, which can happen.
When I was trading, understanding how to arbitrage between markets was a skill and a very low risk way to make good money. But nowadays, there are machines that take advantage of any opportunities and the 2 markets are rarely out of line. A machine can be set up to buy one, sell the other, hedge the currency simultaneously.
When you take stock out of the UK, you have to pay Stamp and it used to be 1.5%, so often the difference between the 2 markets is currency x stamp plus costs. Costs would include a charge to convert and any trading fees.
But I don’t think there is stamp going from Sweden to UK.
Does that help?
By the way, I think I might have been trading Enquest when it was first spun out of Petrofac?"

He asked if that helped? well actually, no.

I've got his phone number now so will have a chat. I'm intrigued to know if you have to report all trades done direct or if it's even possible. You never stop learning.

*A man is known by the company he keeps. A company is known by the men it keeps. -Thomas J. Watson, businessman (17 Feb 1874-1956)

HYN RB Share price
04/02/2021 82.332 83.30 12.8
16/02/2021 83.481 83.60 15.28
17/02/2021 84.269 83.83 17.90

I thought we might have seen the RB close higher? The share movement suggests fears over debt have evaporated so a bit disappointed. It does kinda support my theory that those holding aren't really interested in what the market price is. They'll hold to maturity or renegotiation. A yield to maturity of 14 percent plus isn't to be sneezed at. That's still a 35 plus percent all in if you hold for 2 years 8 months.
To match I'll need 24.16 on the share price. I don't think I've got long to wait.

Revenge of the old economy; nice!

I've spoken to E121. He doesn't have Level 2 or 3 which was really my question. I thought the 20mio was the amounts at the auction.
I know something about FX auctions and LIBOR (I never got caught) and attended the Lira fix in Rome every day during a 2 week posting. The idea is to get a level that everybody is happy with and is relatively impartial. Supply and demand not manipulation. However, the Banca d'Italia would ask you what you were going into the fix with, size and interest. You could also change your amount at the last moment. It was sharp practice but as long as you didn't do it every day it was a nice little earner. London of course was frozen out as it was only for Italian domiciled banks.
The amounts going into the EnQuest UT fix were bigger than usual and (for me) with the little visibility available indicate that tomorrow is going to be another up day.
The important trades are those that were after the fix and manually entered. They could have been from the morning but not at those rates. I’m suggesting that orders were left unfulfilled. The brokers aren’t silly and it is pointless bidding up the price and driving it away from your client. What happened to WTI in April won’t happen at a UT auction because there are many trip/safety devices. Unrestrained though they can go almost anywhere.
I know HMH agrees with me that the “price” is indicative of what the market thinks it is and is seldom right. Certainly not when things are in place like now [stimulus, Covid, under investment, demand returning] I have my view of the price and it is much higher which I’ve stated before. My money, my risk, my opinion.
It is almost as though a reset button has been pressed. Forget the Algos and ATs to an extent. The likes of Goldman’s will not touch these amounts. They’ll ignore 30,000 at .17 but BUY 3mio at .1790. They don’t go searching for prices, countering and gathering all sizes. They’ll go to chosen brokers or Direct and we’ll be left ignorant. I see signs that institutions have been active. The Algos are like day traders and go home square. Who’d want to be exposed in these markets overnight for gathering halfpennies?
The price of EnQuest was wrong. AB has said it many times. You can choose what the right price is but smart money is now beating the retail investors to it. The big players will have a spread where they’re happy to BUY. It might be up to 20p or 25p. They aren’t after day trader returns. You may ask why then didn’t it go to 20p today? I’d say because they are building a position where skill and patience are required. They don’t like overpaying either.

Hi E - your 17.16 is of paramount importance. Before I expound you said "Circa 20 mill shares traded with the UT"
I'm not usually that interested in the UT and I only get to see one number; today 1,012,477 @ 17.90
You say c. 20mio so I'm assuming you are looking at the build up and netting of the end of day auction. Is that correct?

Pelle - I've thought Tesla a SELL for months and would have lost because I went too early. The problem with Tesla is Musk. He is like Trump with his outbursts and Twitter activity. You could take out the position; he says something bullish and his hordes of fans pile in. It is different with EnQuest for a variety of reasons and I'd go as far as to say several on here are not amateurs in the investing game. I was nervous that our move was retail day traders but I believe there is more substance and it is always valuable to get the feelings of others.
When you posted about Tesla it was 772 to sell March. It's now775. Too much like a casino for me but if you can control the margin and live with the volatility why not. I am certainly not a buyer.

Today took me back. It is one of those occasions that being a LTH works. You become inured to the water torture of no action and the resultant erosion of the price. You know why you bought them but the market disagrees. You start to become a little braver and fight back. I even got some close to 8p but overall I'm still under water but the prospects have never looked so good. On fundamentals EnQuest is a BUY and there may even be some more good news heading our way.
It has been a long wait. Be Lucky.

tillfälligt ur musfällor. Mer förväntas imorgon

Well we can't grumble about today. 36mio between us and Stockholm at least. Be interesting to see if there's any delayed reporting after the close. Do not underestimate today's movement. It isn't retail imo. The OO may have just stimulated some sideline cash because EnQuest has to divulge more than usual.
I've bought more today. Some months ago I half-regretted not selling at 15 so what did I do today? Bought more up to 17.658 (ave. 17.08).

Knee-jerk imo. Chess players will be wondering just how short the market is likely to be of oil when/if the stimulus arrives.
I also suspect Saudi's rolling over to have their tummy rubbed by the Biden administration. Joe wouldn't welcome expensive oil. I like it. This isn't through fear of an oil collapse. The opposite in fact.

Hi Jan - I've only suffered racism once. In Glasgow. I was working up there with a pal who was handling a move of the passport office in Paisley over a weekend. It was a Saturday night and we eventually found The Corinthian, a nightclub that did food. They shut much earlier than London so it was all we could find although the Finnair stewardesses were a bonus. We used the toilets and there was an array of after-shave. There was an attendant who was brushing off fluff and handing out towels. I asked him what was working that night (aftershave wise). From a group close by a Scottish voice loudly said "with an accent like that you c**t, nothing". It was unnecessary and deserved a response. My pal who I've known most of my life could sense an escalation and didn't want it kicking-off. He responded before me, "Ronnie, don't retaliate because they'll have their strides down in a flash, baring their arses and we've only just eaten". His pals realised what a jerk the guy was and everybody except him laughed.

I should cocoa L7

What is really amazing. A cheerful Squif!

It won't go up in a straight line and there is a danger that the Reddit crowd will jump on it. I don't think my ticker would handle those swings. Be interesting to see the close today. There'll still be lower days but we are working from such a low under-valued base that there is plenty of growth ahead.
E121 - and I thought I liked a punt. Respect! I'm quite happy to share with shale. There's enough to go round. $100 is nice but we can live with $70. Biden is in a bit of a corner but money always talks.

That's probably the answer Pelle. Too much choice can bewilder. Can't see the wood for the trees. The trader might have liked access to the Swedish market because of arbitrage possibilities and of course stocks only quoted there. I'll probably meet up with him eventually and will ask.

O/T I remember going to M&S for socks. There was so much choice you either buy too many or give up. Another time I tried to buy white T shirts in their Oxford St, flagship store. It was practically empty but I could only find orange. I asked the helpful Eastern European member of staff for help. He said they were changing stock but if I didn't mind the crowds I could go across the road to Primark. I did and got 5 for the price of 1 M&S. My wife said it's all about quality and they'd fall to pieces within a year. 5 years on I still have them.

Bear with me as I'm going a little off-piste here. I had a neighbour (since moved) who was a trader for Barclays>Lehman>Nomura>greengrocer (it happens). I remember him studying exams to trade in either Stockholm or Oslo bourses whilst at Nomura. I'm pretty sure it was Stockholm and he traded oil. He had to go to Sweden to take the exam.
I'm a tad suspicious of the movement last few days. The increase today is larger in EnQuest and that is unusual. Even stranger is the turnover in Stockholm being higher than London. It could be that the Swedes treat the stock exchange there as a casino but there could be another reason.
What if it's cheaper and/or you can pick up shares more off radar? It doesn't mean that the instigators of the trades are Stockholm based.

Something is going on in EnQuest that the general market is unaware of unless it's a combination of Aquavit and long nights? Any info welcome.

Gets even better if you read the comments. I wish I'd written these;

"Investors will follow the money. History will repeat itself. If the fundamentals drive the energy sectors returns and shares start to perform money will follow. In addition the negative long term outlook for hydrocarbon energy consumption will constrain investment in the sector and drive capital returns to shareholders through share buybacks. Just as we have seen what a disciplined approach can achieve in the mining sector so too will we see it in the energy sector."

"Commodity prices don't need investor flows in order to rise - commercial demand for the actual goods is perfectly sufficient. Doesn't mean that even the most ESG-Puritan investor will not eventually succumb to FOMO and jump on the bandwagon. Especially if JP Morgan et al. issue their next findings of a "surprise" inflation surge"

mousetraps are never out of fashion

Not in the sense that a particular stock has been shorted. Not even that sector bets have shorted. More the result of following the ESG narrative and indifference. Problem with that is that energy continues to dominate life and economies. whilst the world hasn't changed that much. Profit and making money still has its attractions. From FT:
https://www.ft.com/content/d3c43942-af5c-45df-8797-aed080a61092
"Rotation by discretionary funds and retail: In the period from 2010 to 2015, the Energy sector had a 10.6% allocation in equity portfolios. This has steadily declined to a 3.1% weight currently (Figure 4). The largest decline was in active allocations, which declined from 7% to 1.5% (while passive allocations decreased from 3.6% to 1.8%). Any retracement of this decline, on a US equity fund asset base of ~$14T would result in significant inflows and re-pricing. As economies reopen, inflation moves higher, and yield curves steepen, active funds are expected to first close cyclical shorts, and then rotate from long secular growth towards value and cyclicals. Given that equity assets significantly increased over the past 10 years, and the energy sector significantly decreased, even a small rotation could produce an outsized move. Retail investors also reduced energy equity allocation from 4.4% to only 0.6% currently. Given the increased retail activity and interest in stocks that are volatile, have high short interest, are smaller in size and have thematic news/social media coverage (see here), the sector will probably also be of interest to retail investors."

"adding energy equity exposure is attractive at this juncture, especially considering our constructive commodity view."

How socially responsible of Goldman's! I'm flabbergasted, don't they know there is a green revolution going on?

*I'm not paranoid,
Every one just thinks I am.

You raise a good point mrc - as retail investors we're always gonna be going at a different speed to those involved in making deals. Even if you park due diligence there is still preliminary investigations and knocking out an agreement with at least token bank/lender support. I'm certainly no expert but the quickest deal would probably run into months. You can then throw in the fast moving events (and prices) of the past months after the first half of 2020 which was almost a total write off.
Basically it's been an achievement just to cover costs for many companies.
IF we have closed or are close to closing deals they would have started last year so this one is still warm. What's happened to Spirit? I'm sure there's been plenty of tyre kicking doing the rounds. We do our best here but there is little that we can do but trust the management [or SELL]. If there are any deals in the pipeline they will almost certainly be at a good price. Of course that is because we can deal backwards here. It is the other stuff that Pyueck pointed out that is the problem. He is right about predictions. We've got the odd one right but nobody here has completed a set of correct predictions. Being one of the board optimists I hope they have other deals in the pipeline. I think the future looks good for us and worth the gamble. There's sure to be bumps ahead but we have been joined by some serious pundits. The next step is for the funds to follow them and start investing. The oil market still feels "frothy" but a few month of decent cash flow and it will change. The oil price does look like it'll hold for once. It still has to wait for the stimulus package to go through though. The consensus appears to be that Covid is beat.