Member Info for romaron

Here's some perspective. Listening to the World Service and infrastructure growth. They mentioned iron ore and railways. I picked up because at the moment there are traffic lights at the top of my road (Barnet, N. London) to enable the piping of water from Affinity to Thames. It is needed for HS2 apparently which has upset everybody from NIMBYs to Great Crested Newts and their supporters.
The Chinese are planning to increase their railway coverage from 140,000 kilometers to 200,000 kilometers, that's 60,000 kilometers! I looked up the length of the HS2 line (225km to Birmingham, total Y network 531Km).
Regarding oil. I think we'll need a bigger tanker.

https://twitter.com/aeberman12/status/1361429207860002826/photo/1 this will help. Shale wasn't profitable at $57 (WTI) but that hides a multitude of sins. There are sure to be some profitable and at lower b/e prices and some above $57 that would by now be abandoned (I expect). Biden effect, if any, will take time as the shale producers have plenty of acreage (land bank) to work through.
Even though shale has been likened to a manufacturing process I think the financing will be harder for this cycle. Once bitten and all that. I don't know how accurate this chart is but North Sea contribution is small.

Does anyone have an explanation for the (seemingly) higher trading volume on the Swedish exchanges?
Currently c. 7.6 mio Sweden LSE 2.7 mio
I know there are some traded elsewhere (is it IG?) in London but I'm sure the UK have more shareholders. A possible explanation (which I doubt) is that there is more trading in London on CFDs, spread bets and other derivatives where Netting might hide the overall volume.

I'm assuming the OO will be in the new Tax Year after 5 April so no ISA concerns?

Pyuek wrote " I am fed up of people saying they know what oil will do next. You don't. Nobody does."

....and that's because Nobody is perfect.

Sorry, couldn't resist. I'll get me coat.

Of course there is one person who made a fortune out of hedging. Nicholas Taleb and The Microstructure of Dynamic Hedging (1998) http://docs.finance.free.fr/Options/Dynamic_Hedging-Taleb.pdf
Unreadable for me but I did read The Black Swan which is the "for dummies" version. He achieved cult status but he continued rolling the dice.
He followed up with "Antifragile" and compared the safest job to have. Middle management in a corporation or a taxi driver. Well imo he got it wrong because he chose taxi driver and they have struggled with Covid (a Black Swan event). Mind you, if you were middle management at an on-line retailer you'd have done better than those in tourism or the airline industry.
The cleverest people in the world actually acknowledge that hedging doesn't eliminate risk.
Actuaries and the insurance industry are the best practitioners imo. Bookies aren't far behind.

Of course you're right Pyueck but at this very moment people around the world are making decisions on the direction of oil, economies and Covid to name just three. Opinions do count and I sometimes feel remarkably smug when I get it right; especially if I beat the CEO of a major oil company in forecasting.
The future is unknown but you have to have a stab at it and talking on here is harmless fun because if you haven't learned by now there isn't much difference between predicting oil and the result of a toss of a coin. If hedging was so futile why do so many companies do it? The Saudi's have their OSP and no doubt several long term contracts that are "commercially sensitive". You cannot with the hedging you're talking about go much further than a year. That should make prediction less a roll of the dice but it didn't work for 2020.
I don't know who you're referring to about posters who KNOW but I am bullish for oil and can make a cogent argument why. Others far more experienced in oil are adapting but on balance confirm that oil has an excellent future until 2050 (at least).
I think Fulham will avoid relegation. Now that is a risky bet.

It was relatively steady around that date in Oct 2020 as was the RB. Not sure what to make of it other than my leaning towards the fact that the HYN is not trading whilst the low T/O on the RB with the few retail investors left directly invested is too small to affect the price. Still a good indicator of sorts as most will be in profit and could sell at any time. The fact they haven't could mean there aren't many safer or higher paying alternatives.

As you were L7 - the RB has fixed at the middle rate of 83.30 (a kinda UT). I'm very happy with that. When I first looked it said 81.50 but that is the bid and I always use the middle/closing which they don't enter until later. The RB on the 12th was 82.63 so another positive for me. As a rough and ready rule (do I ever do precise) there should be an adjustment of c. 3.50 points and there wasn't. It does indicate to me that these aren't held by the every day retail investor. Those funds after steady income probably baled some time ago. They are now in the hands of those who deal in junk bonds. Their aim isn't usually to take over the company or watch it die but just take a risk on the company surviving and enjoy the high returns.
BTW - if you have the HYN interest dates to hand I'll take a note.

That means I'll have to wait until about 5.30 for confirmation on my EQi account of the RB.

PMO's up over 10 percent and they've got a dilution to contend with. The lion's share goes to the Chrysaor private owners. We are still independent. PMO hedged better than us.
Perhaps now they'll forgive AB and team for poor hedging and give them credit for steering us safely through the perfect storm. PMO was subject to the Law of salvage.

Hi HMH - sometimes you just have to join in. The lining up of the reversal of the factors that cratered our share price are almost once in a lifetime opportunities. There are no guarantees but I had 27 years of trading and getting it wrong as well as right. I usually know when to bale out (late) but an opportunity like this is unique. The previous OO and RI means that many of us LTHs have more than is prudent. Quite a few of us are balls deep. I've seen what happened when some of our nationalised companies went public and at the slightest hint of a profit they were enormously oversubscribed. The march of EnQuest hasn't even started yet. I suspect the OO book-builders have suggested scenarios to potential subscribers if needed. They liked what they heard ands saw.

See you at the party.

*On a more prosaic level. I need a new boiler. My wife won't allow it until its warmer and Covid clear so I parked the estimated £6k in the RB at 67. If I win on the spread bet it's going towards an electric car. The London mayor has forced me to sell my diesel CLS before October.

They fixed Tullow at least an hour ago and we were unchanged since Friday. I was gonna say that it was evidence that these HYNs are effectively lock-up paper and hadn't traded. The home for many bonds is the US and the holiday today is also material imo. I double-checked and they have been updated, late. The fact that they didn't dip and actually increased speaks volumes to me. 12/02/2021 82.095 today 15/02/2021 83.028
They're heading beyond 90. All this despite having the parking brake on (OO hanging over us). I'm getting excited.

*I think putting EnQuest on Tinder was a masterstroke.

Hi Pelle- Are you saying that they've traded 16mio shares on the Swedish Exchange? If so can you see any size of the trades?
Can you give a link (if possible) for us in the UK to see?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-equinor-usa-exclusive/exclusive-equinor-considers-more-us-asset-sales-in-global-strategy-revamp-idUSKBN2AF115

Mentions of scale again. Whatever happens with Bressay I can't really see Equinor being part of it. This guy Al Cook is ex-BP and they are, let's say, less than committed to the NS. He's head of Development & Production International (DPI) and I'm guessing the UK counts as "International".

I made a typo when writing "fossil fuels are indispensable kings of energy" and meant to write "indisputable" but actually both work so there was no reason to correct. Guess who is a fan of renewables. None other than The Sage of Omaha. " Mr. Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway investment fame has praised renewable energy for its climate change benefits.
However, he has famously said that the only reason to invest in renewable energy projects is for the tax subsidies."
Says it all really.
https://energy-musings.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Musings-020921.pdf worth a read.

Oi Pelle - that's my job.

Agree with both of you. My house is full of unwanted shares of EnQuest and I've become something of a collector. At least they don't require dusting. Re DVLA plates. I've owned a couple in the past but came to the conclusion that they all read the same "W*nkr". They were profitable though and the wife still owns a couple.
I went to several DVLA auctions and the most memorable was KI NGS that went for around a quarter of a million. An Arab got it and the runner up was a night club owner from Essex. At another the agent bidding for LEW 1S just stuck his paddle in the air and left it up. He carried on chatting to his companions until the gavel went down. His intention was clear.

Not necessarily important but possibly worth bearing in mind. US markets closed today but I suspect it would have been an "up day". The RB and HYNs had an interest payment due. Not sure what day the price should have dipped (kinda ex divi) but as it was close of business 12th for holding and payment today I'd expect to see a dip. It is technical and nothing really to worry about. However, the RB closed at 82.095 on 12Feb. If the indicative price on LSE is accurate (83.10) then that is another good sign.

I've resisted for a long while because I find the temptation too high but the events in the US tied up with Covid and fundamentals were just irresistible. These bets need a little more attention than following your portfolio which I resent. I just can't see much of a pull back so hope I can forget it and let it run. This time I expect a steady increase as the "grown ups" are back in charge. Sure the Democrats make the right noises regarding renewables but the US is a pragmatic mercantile empire. Biden needs the support of oil too. I think people too easily forget just how erratic Trump was. Biden is sticking to the day job and is the kind of stability the world needs.

£4k