Member Info for romaron

I followed the impeachment trial closely. A certain amount of horse-trading would have gone on and be continuing which we'll be unaware of. The Republicans are in a quandary. I think it is accepted that Republicans are more pro-oil than Democrats. They want the economic boost that the stimulus package will provide whilst at the same time minimise the amount. I expect the Democrats to get closer to the amount they propose. That will push us higher.
HMH is correct. There has been under investment in oil. If the majors cut back what do you think the rest of the market did? They have a far more diverse portfolio and of course the credit rating. The comment that L7 had for "full on" oil companies applies to us.
Covid is in retreat. Bounce back will happen. Even more sharply due to unnecessary restraint and over cautious approach.
Net zero aim means that the majors have gone beyond tilt on certain fields and basins. I would be very surprised if they continued exploring in the NS. The scrutiny is too high and the temptation of protester activism more likely. There is a limited number of buyers for remaining NS fields. We can manage another one quite easily once we've digested Eagle.
EnQuest is growing.
I couldn't resist a trade this morning and have opened a spread bet. Only fun but each penny increase will be worth £1k.
June spread 14.62-14.83

No offense taken at all L7. It is my nature to be optimistic which can often leave you stranded in a world of cynics. Both sides are necessary or you don't really have a market. The bulls have been losing for some time in EnQuest as they have in Shell, BP, Petrofac etc.. so I have plenty of company. The only rules I have is that you need to be in a company with good management and governance with a viable product. We all drop into jargon or slogans at times because they often sum up neatly or save words. Unless you are a day trader (I'm not) you are almost guaranteed to lose unless you have a house advantage. You'll get the trend right from time to time and think you're invincible. Each of us must have picked up something through our life experience and whilst my predilection to a gamble has cost me at times it has also on balance made me more. I enjoy oil and in another life wouldn't have minded being involved.
My interest in renewables is deeper than I've gone into here but I think it works off a flawed premise. There is no masterplan other than throw money at it and convince the public it is for their own good [how much money has the UK gained on thermal wall insulation if you take Grenfell into the equation?] Other improvements filter through in the much slower legislative changes and building regs. Fossil fuels are indispensable kings of energy and are the rock on which renewables are being scaled up. Too wide a gap and it'll all collapse because the public won't pay.
We are certainly in a unique situation this time though and I expect (on balance) to win. Nothing is guaranteed. Supporting my view is the market love affair with NEW. Tesla and bitcoin are two examples.
I like the present valuation of EnQuest. It's wrong but not unexpected and does offer more opportunity than I have seen for a decade.

*It doesn't mean I am a Luddite though. I'm trying to start a business recycling chewing gum, but I'm having trouble getting it off the ground.

Damn, you've found me out L7. I cannot predict the future or a once in a century plague. However, today's Sunday Times has this editorial: "News on vaccines gets better every day - the end is in sight."

I'm always an optimist. Shouldn't be any problem getting back to 4th Feb scenario and beyond for survivors which was.
Share price 24.72
RB 91.33
Oil 54.14

I did top up below 10p but it would have been better to sell out so thanks for the reminder. I was stuck in the same position as practically everybody holding oil. A few cleverer than me clearly did better. The race isn't finished.
I have a cunning strategy. Been working on it today. More tomorrow.

Is it a coincidence that the increasing price of oil coincides with the annual celebration of the Patron Saint of oil?

Back in the early 18th Century (1709) the leader of the world in candle technology, Great Britain imposed taxes on using candles as lighting and a license was necessary. This was forced on them by early environmentalists who were against the use of animal fat, a necessary component and the dark, sooty emissions that were said to be evil. This forced people to use rush lighting with its major flaw that it lacked the energy of a candle. These really were the dark ages. It attracted many inventors to find a replacement and it only took another 170 years to find a solution (the light bulb 1879).

There were many demonstrations against the candle tax and the government made an example by executing one of the ring leaders by the terrible method of “crushing”. This is where increasing weight is placed upon the victim until he/she expires.

This is why on Tuesday we should all remember and celebrate the sacrifice made by the patron saint of oil; Saint Pancake.

*Many are unaware of this connection as we celebrate "pancake day" and where the expression "flat as a pancake" comes from.

Front page: "Huge fall in Covid patients".

"The number of Coronavirus patients in hospitals in England will more than halve over the next month, according to internal government projections seen by the Times."

All I read is that as the data numbers show the efficacy of existing drugs is confirmed. Risk can never be totally eliminated in any endeavour. People die every day from taking aspirin and yes, you can get killed crossing the road.

To be clear. I am suggesting putting EnQuest on Tinder. It was an allegory and a way for the book-builders to advertise.

*Valentine's almost sorted. It's roses. Now, is it 6, 12 or do I just give her the whole tin?

If you were not classically good looking but getting your end away regularly with hot chicks would you be that bothered? Add to that a reliable source of funds to enjoy your success would you brag about it? No, you'd want to keep it going as long as possible. I've worked in markets for much of my life and following the crowd is often profitable until it isn't. Millwall/Marmite call it what you will but I'm considering signing up for Tinder. The more discerning will be attracted by my attributes and future earnings.

*don't forget Valentine's. I usually get it wrong. She circled jewelry one year in magazines as a hint. I bought her a magazine rack. This year it'll be flowers. Not sure whether to get plain or self-raising. There's no pleasing her; it probably goes back to my choice of music at the wedding reception - "You can't always get what you want".

Bit early for swallows but the jump today may be because the book-builders are doing their rounds. It is a small club and they will know each other fairly well. They will lean to the promotional side (a Mercedes salesman won't try to sell a Volkswagen or emphasise the poor handling) and have their spiel ready. The audience may think - "you know what - forget the fund raise, I want more of this". The larger amounts today are a welcome return. Lets hope the buyers stay around.
I was thinking that with our semi-private status (OK, it's an exaggeration but there are elements) and the years of indifference shown by institutions, shorters and even day traders more shares are held by long term holders than is the norm. I don't know about others but my shares are not for sale at this level. I might look again at 28p but doubt I'll be a seller. Even the $50mio raise won't bring that many shares to the market imo. I believe there is a shortage of liquidity in EnQuest shares. Eventually the market will not be able to ignore us. Doing nothing is not an option if you want size. The (slightly) off the record briefing by the book-builders will reinforce this message imo.

The world will always need mousetraps.

..... another after business. Probably driven by the weather. Hope they stay around.

Two trades amounting tp 1.15mio shares spotted at the bird table around 14.03.

chilting - you left out the bit about growing our own bananas. Not really a problem. With fuel cell tech for heating we could get the price down to (say) £10 a bunch. Mind you we could probably grow pineapples alongside. Mind you, where do you find the room to plant them as the fields are full of solar panels?

Steady HMH. Are you saying we aren't an Empire any longer?

Facts minus economics. Let's save polluting shipping fuel. Let's grow our own bananas. Jesus will return and there are virgins waiting for Muslim martyrs. They're facts for some too.

"just doing nothing isn't an option" is a meaningless slogan, just like "make America great again".

Haven't you a tree to climb or a tunnel to dig?

We've been doing stuff for years. Double glazing, catalytic converters, wall, floor and roof insulation, grading of fridges & boilers etc. Just look at the building regs and what the requirements are for a car to be on the road. Alchemy has been going on since the middle ages yet people refuse to believe that base metals cannot be turned into gold. Carry on believing it chilting.
I was involved in this stuff for years and it is a litany of throwing money at the problem with little result. The nanny state is in our ear all the time. Of course I believe in a cleaner world but it is still better to be born in this century than any of the last.
Since the fuel-price protests of 2000, no British chancellor has dared to reimpose the fuel price escalator tells us something about what happens when ideology encounters public resistance in a democracy. And people think the US will behave differently because Biden is in charge? Don't make me laugh. The article by Goehring & Rozencwajg says much more than I can and is backed by detail and logic.
You're a broken record chilting. Maybe you struggle with the difference between ignorance and apathy. You are not alone.
Most people don't know and don't care. Can you carry on your crusade on the right message boards where you are actually invested. END

The Treasury is clawing back unspent funds from the ill-conceived and failing Green home grants scheme. Set up less than 2 years ago with £1.5bn of taxpayers money (that's you and me) because of poor take-up (proof you can't fool all of the people).
Less than 5% take up means it would take at least 10 years to meet the 600,000 home target.
My explanation. A £5k grant is lovely and I wouldn't say no. However, you aren't gonna get the local guy who charges competitive prices to wait for payment or handle the indecipherable paperwork. A few get conned into it but most soon become disillusioned and leave the scheme. Of the £5k grant most goes to overcharging and "paperwork" fees. You could get a £5k boiler system for £10k with a £5k grant. You don't lose. The taxpayer does.
EAGA (Warm Front) was another grant company existing on taxpayer handouts. Built in inefficiency and target chasing led to it going bust until Carillion spotted a bargain (2011). That went well.
The government will now quietly file this away. they got the publicity when they needed it.

Bit surprised chilting hadn't posted this. He's a flag waver.

If you really want to understand renewables suggest you read this:
https://f.hubspotusercontent40.net/hubfs/4043042/Commentaries/2020.Q4%20Commentary/2020.Q4%20Goehring%20%26%20Rozencwajg%20Market%20Commentary.pdf

We are tidying up after Shell and other larger oil companies. They are divesting in the NS but Shell have the Permian as a core holding whilst BP hides behind Rosneft who take the flak whilst BP makes huge profits as examples. The majors use scale as an excuse for exiting the NS and it is partly true. Just as important is image. You don't sh*t on your own doorstep is the easy way to explain it.
If Shell and BP struggle to get a decent press what chance for us who are engaged in clearing up after them?
There are many businesses that aren't popular or glamorous but are essential (e.g. abattoirs, waste disposal, scrap metal, sweat shops, coal mining) and are often highly profitable if run well.
Shell have under invested in oil over the past few years. The majors run together so I am taking a liberty and applying it across the board. This means that we'll have a hiccup in the next 6months to 3 years (excellently timed by EnQuest whilst everybody else was concentrating on short term hedges) which will give a large boost that will let shale back in but who cares? With memories fresh US investors will want to ensure oil stays at $65. It'll go higher first. Biden still wants to win votes in oil states and get legislation through.
We will need to top up reserves regularly but the transition means that should be relatively easy. Indeed, being smaller we will have the flexibility and war chest to have choices. We are excellently poised imo.
Accepting we're never gonna be the investor's favourite we will be rewarded by capital appreciation and dividend judged only by numbers. Some people call it fundamentals. I don't care what they call it.
AB doesn't want to be remembered just as the man who made his money in oil, which to some is the equivalent of arms trading.
That's the West for you. The r.o.w. are much more understanding. What he does want to be remembered for is building and running a successful company, securing his family's future and helping underprivileged students through his foundation.
I'll go along with that.

There was a QA today after Shell's announcement. I decided to listen and it did (for me) highlight our differences which in turn helps us understand where EnQuest lies in the scheme of things. We aren't in renewables and that is the correct decision. Shell are involved in Scope 3 emissions, downstream, marketing and trading, integrated gas, aviation fuel and I've probably missed some. Their profile means they engage with Governments and the public on a daily basis, we don't. Their statements are important because the majors are the whales and we are the pilot fish. They speak to the IPCC and we step into line. In many ways they are our representatives and their decisions have a major influence down the line.
It isn't exactly sleight of hand but they promote renewables whilst continuing to outspend on oil ($3bn v $8bn) each year. The net zero target should be put into perspective. Therapist could do it but I can't explain by way of graphs but I will say this. If you go back to the recent graphs produced by experts that are on Art Berman's twitter feed and overlaid them; you would find that whilst renewables have modest to decent growth between now and then (2050) oil doesn't reduce but holds its own, possibly even a little growth. The "safe" word for the majors is "transition". Their importance in the energy mix and tax they pay is important to Governments around the world. Both sides know this and Greta is tolerated.
Shell is also unpopular and its promise of a progressive dividend policy and a buoyant oil price helped it lose 2 percent today.
https://news.sky.com/story/shell-sets-new-goals-to-achieve-net-zero-emissions-by-2050-12214813
Nothing really new in this but it cheered me up. It confirmed what I have based my investment in EnQuest on. TBC

I may be some time.

-4 last night. Best score from the wife in some time.

Some advice. Eat more carrots. Not only do they help your sight they heighten your sense of smell. Ask any snowman.

Boring ain't it!

The thing is it makes sense. I haven't felt this confident in a long while.