Member Info for romaron

I prefer a Soar of Eagles but maybe a Tower of Eagles is more apt for the oil industry. I don't think there's a collective noun for message board posters.

A circus of posters, a muddle of posters, or an apoplectic of posters. I like the last.

Hi Pelle - If oil is $70 then the share price will be higher for sure. We'll be higher if it stays where it is. The lenders have asked for the $50 mio NOT EnQuest imo. I'm sure mortgages are similar in Sweden. You have to contribute towards a purchase. It is the way things are done. You can make promises to a mortgage broker and say things like I could pay that standing on my head but they always require security. Come Q3 the picture will look so different. Even if we have an embarrassing positive cash flow the banks will still want the $50mio. We might even be able tolend it to them!

Money brokers. Stock brokers. Farmers. Ski resorts. You're talking rubbish chilting. Retailers have fashion trends it just goes on. There's probably more info available to the oil market than almost any other. Covid showed that some industries are more exposed than others to certain events. Life and the future entails risks and choice.

No chilting. ALL companies have to worry about the order book and supply. Even Amazon. House builders. Ship-makers. Retail. Restaurants. Butchers. Bakers and Candlestick Makers.

It's a bit easier if you have Government backing with grants and like. Like the renewables for instance.

Virgin Galactic has doubled in value and increased Richard Branson’s (our version of Elon Musk) fortune to an all-time high. I believe that VG is overpriced but people continue to invest in the sector, unlike Oil. I’ve discovered a little beauty that will even make the ESG fraternity happy. The major problem with rocket launches is weight and the requirement for fossil fuel. Batteries have been tried but the rockets only lifted a few feet before they fell over. I have found an AIM tiddler that could be a multibagger. It is called ECat (Elasticated Catapult Ltd). The idea came from a group of engineers watching a Game of Thrones episode. The Knight Watch were using Ballistas to defend the Wall and the engineers were amazed at their effectiveness. How could you master the technology to launch a rocket in a similar green way? Elastic can store potential energy but you’d need an awful lot of elastic and then there is kinetic energy when launched. Basically, (for the unscientific) you can gather the potential energy by pulling and compressing the elastic but once released you have a lot of uncompressed elastic (think snake-in-a-can prank). In discussions with OGRE (Oil & Gas Renewable Energy) they have trialled a successful launch on an unnamed offshore oil rig. The potential energy is produced from wind or solar and stored. The released elastic will explode into the empty drilling tunnels below. Another plus is that due to the obesity crisis there is a glut of used knicker elastic that can be recycled again and again. One problem is the wilding threat remains as the best sites are close to Scotland and the Scandinavian countries.

I received an unsolicited offer to invest in TPEE (Taking The**** inc.) which works on the basis of using drilling tunnels again as a kinda pea-shooter to use pneumatic tube technology to make deliveries for Amazon. I think it might be a scam and ignored it although it did work at Bearmans Leytonstone as recently as 1955.

I passed on the Dragon Farm start up for several reasons. Despite chilting's exhortations and the fact that he had purchased 3 eggs. They can become unmanageable and there is a strong possibility they might never hatch.

In my adventurous portfolio I’ve added to NODE (No debt EnQuest) on the basis of third time lucky (RI/OO)

Relax Ammu. Today I wanted to follow the discussions due to the RNSs and cleared my Filters. You're going back on Filter along with others. You are funny though, I'll give you that.

Got under your skin did I?

Will be better tomorrow but a bit of confusion. Probably misspeak but AB says at c.6.14 about Eagle $5 Opex and $15 breakeven. This is possibly only 2021. Later 10.20 Martin Mentiply says $5 Opex 2021 BUT full life cycle Opex $15 and Capex $5 making B/E c. $20 which appears cheap to me. Also 5.40 "Any, any equity shortfall" emphasised that AB will backstop.
He didn't sound happy. I took it as suppressed anger that the second lien was even necessary.
It doesn't make a big difference in the scheme of things but some of you are more precise than me. It looks like the deal won't be closed for some months and it looks like it'll be closer to September. That suits me as I'd like to hang on to my RB a little longer. I think today was the obvious knee jerk. RI or OO doesn't really matter. Dilution does but this is also to do with Covid timing and Saudi Arabia flooding the market in March. In the next few days we'll see what the market (not day traders) thinks of it. I'm expecting this to fade from memory as the OO is 6 months away. Meanwhile the creditors are buying the bonds. They ain't daft. The share price is going up.
Jan - don't get caught up in buys v sells. I traded in spot FX and were actually closing and recording the deals but still didn't really have a clue. Not sure how they do them but if one deal was for a million buy and the other side was 20 x 50,000 sells there'd be more sells than buys obviously. But what if a broker had been told to line them up or collect them quietly? What side would have the greater influence. I did briefly look at the trades and until 15.00 I think there was only 1 trade for 1m and a couple of others 390k and 223k. Another thing. Does it really matter what the algo are doing with their tiny amounts. They go home square anyway.

Squif - if Covid hadn't happened the story would be completely different. We lost a year of decent oil prices.

You're not wrong Jan. Somebody will tell us we haven't allowed for the compensatory effect of DCF over NPV divided the sum total of f* all whilst forgetting depreciation and the office party but we're not number crunchers. They're missing the tidying up of the various debts and getting the company into shape for whatever AB and JS want to do next. All debt should be gone by October 23 (audio). I want to be there for that and I'm coming around to this deal. Somebody (another board maybe) mentioned that Covid wasn't helpful. If we were a cruise company or an airline they'd all be saying how well we'd done to survive and be offered hand-outs. Instead of that we took action, and paid down debt.

The HYN valuation on the Luxembourg exchange is 82.332 up 7.10 per cent from yesterday. Its normally the bondholders who crush the retail share holder when things go wrong but unfortunately for the nay-sayers the bond has gone in the wrong direction.

Squif - stop sugar-coating it and say what you mean.

But it's OK when you do it MrC?

For any new readers Ammu has "previous" for thinking that his outbursts will move the price. Don't be too hard on him though as he brings a lot of humour to this message board. When he's not here he can be found sitting on a wall, dribbling and trying to learn how to play the banjo.

An example: "If Biden wins 04 Nov 2020 18:22
I expect oil to fall $5 and enq to be in the 8’s...

mrc - are you Scottish?

Blimey Auson - why are you asking me? The numbers guys just love that sh*t. But it is a good question.

"What are we valuing the 10,000bpd production and the 2P reserves at in this deal ?"

The reserves are c. $14.72 which isn't particularly cheap but bear in mind there won't be the ginormous capex that Sea Lion and Buchan (JOG) will need. Bird in the hand and all that. *I expect Bressay to be at lower capex if it ever gets developed.
The 10,000 production is harder. I'm sensing a Magnus type feeling as the GEAD hasn't achieved the 70,000 boepd that was suggested in some field papers I'm trying to understand. I'm coming around to this deal slowly. Not happy to have to dip in my pocket (who is) but if we were a US company we'd be accused of timidity and not understanding how these things work. The only vote I've seen so far is the RB and that is a resounding YES. That is what the professionals think. RI/OO or whatever you want to call it could not be avoided. Its a charge the lenders always add.
For the 10,000 bpd you'd have to wade through the figures of existing owners. I imagine it'll be at a market level and the number/research guys should find it. If you can push it to 15,000 then it gets exciting. I think this might apply "Various third-party near-field tie-back opportunities being considered to utilise available capacity of the facilities".

Be Lucky

Hi Squiff - I'm fumbling around in the dark here. It is always about finance and the RB jump is (for me) unexpected. I'll have the HYNs price late afternoon but I expect it to do the same as the RB. If the HYN price confirms then we've got a vote of approval from the bond market. They don't usually bestow gifts that freely and it might even indicate that Moody's might warm to us. The new secured debt facility is already known and negotiated judging by the bond market reaction. There might even be a bidding war to become part of the syndicate of lenders to EnQuest.
Elitesky makes a good point - oil was lower when this deal was negotiated.

$350 mio isn't peanuts and we know its a buyer's market in the NS. Why they chose the Suncor assets remains to be seen? Not operated by us. I wonder if it is almost a housekeeping move. We needed to sort out the RCF and get reserves & production up a bit. This produces the cash needed to fulfill the larger ambitions of AB.
If the RB & HYN price is correct then the bond market (which far exceeds the equity) and is largely driven by professionals has given its approval. I'm confused with the contradictory signals.

Hi Jan - There is good stuff in there, true. We don't know the details of the new secured debt facilities. Have a look at the Retail Bond. If that price is correct we're all missing something here?

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/ENQ1/enquest-plc/company-page

Holding up. I know Brent is doing well but even so! The recent NED's and other management movements suggest this isn't the only deal going on. We may yet be surprised.

chilting - stick with the windmills.

There is a prospectus coming so expect to be asked to cough up. Otherwise wouldn't they be talking about "placement"?

Hi Blue run - agree not clear. However, I expect to be included. Stock market adage that RI's come in threes has been proven once again.