Member Info for romaron

The shareholder raise is almost always a requirement of the lenders on large acquisitions. I'd be p*ssed if I was excluded but immediate reaction is that this is the 3rd time in 3 years so I'm still p*ssed. These raises are becoming annual events. This will be a hard sell to the market.

Nice to have another woman on the board. Both new NEDs are successful businesswomen. Good for our ESG credentials and unusual to have accomplished women rather than the tokenism that some try on. Their CVs are impressive.
Avanza Bank appear to have given a thumbs up.
Can somebody prod Barron. He wouldn't have known of today's RNS's and he needs to tell his followers.

*supply problems with mousetraps due to excess demand.

I know. Same problems at BP. $18.1bn loss, worst on record. And then Exxon go and do similar ($22.4bn loss). Recording its first annual loss as a public company. What they wouldn't give to have you and chilting advising. They just don't have the (self-appointed) people of your calibre.

Hi Pelle - ARCM, Sea Lion and Tony Durrant destroyed a half decent company. Each of them should be considered when thinking about Bressay and what overextending can do. AB is a totally different leader. TD supposedly worked in the City. well he didn't make the right contacts unless you consider Malcy. The fact that we aren't shorted by the more ethical hedge funds speaks volumes.

Bit confused here. "Remember Whiteline (sic) was unsinkable" Any connection to the RMS Titanic owned by the White Star Line?

Apologies if these outbursts of yours are uncontrollable.

Hi Pelle- bit late today. Been to a funeral in Suffolk. You wrote "Romaron , how can you be so sure?" You got me there. Maybe the shorters are in Sweden? I don't know what the reporting rules are on your stock exchange. Could it be Ammu or Neil Hannon? All I can go on is the reported shorts above half percent which have to be reported to the FCA here in the UK.
EnQuest's last short was by Marshall Wace who dropped below the threshold 21/03/2019. There were no shorts (again above half percent) for all of 2020.
I suppose there could be a cabal of shorters below a Pizza restaurant drinking children's blood whose sole purpose is to undermine the UK Oil Industry. I really think you may be on to something. I must admit I hadn't considered it.
Don't bother about the Bonds. You don't understand them. For vulture funds It is quite common to short the stock as hedges and buy distressed bonds. It gets technical and there is some "scarring" left when they execute these trades and they would have had an impact when taken out but the company's immune system (if it survives) means they are a reminder. There could be some deals still running. I could make a case why shorting ENQ on 20/3 at 08.27 would still leave the bond trader with a large profit if he bought the bonds the same day (.3683). There could still be existing positions that are in profit when you see the wider picture. It is impossible to trace these deals so I suppose it must be the Pizza Parlour. There are of course other explanations and mine were formed in the kitchen with a cup of tea and a pencil. City boffins have state of the art information and super computers. They aren't really interested (imo) in tiny EnQuest but rather the majors and the oil market (physical and derivative).

Scientists say the universe is made up of protons, neutrons and electrons. They forgot to mention morons.

Hi Pelle - of course shorters can return at any time but if you look at the recent past we outperformed TLW and PMO who were both heavily shorted. We basically were in stasis. The post from Frac was out of the blue, almost like a Tourette's outburst and I thought he was on the wrong board.
Where is the evidence we're shorted? I'm not talking about the total stock on loan which covers a multitude of reasons and I even gave comparisons in a post (19 Jan). Our stock on loan was similar to BP and lower than CNE. No shorts reached a reportable half percent. It is of little consequence. There can be residual trades that tie in with the bonds etc.. and we'll never get to the bottom of them and they will not hold the price down. Don't expect the Bond to move in lockstep with the stock. There is a lot more amateur interest in the shares and they have different drivers.
In the UK I remember in the early 90's people posting their keys through the letter boxes of estate agents. Nobody was buying property and it stayed in the doldrums for several years. Blame who you like but people may have shorted building stocks but how do you short a house? Markets are irrational at times and another reason we aren't shorted is AB and the EBT's combined 15% holding. You'd have to get at least 5% of shorters showing their head above the parapet to get anybody interested. Today BP announced a loss for 2020. I doubt anybody mentioned it outside of the BP board but do we blame the shorters there too? They haven't really outperformed EnQuest in the scheme of things. OIL IS OUT OF FASHION. It happens.
I mention the 3D's. If nothing happens stocks without a dividend almost always deflate. Go horse racing. There are thousands in the crowd and almost all lose. They vastly outnumber the owners, trainers and bookies. Who wins? If you want to day trade- good luck but you don't know what you're up against. To be successful you either short or play a longer game. Yes, shorting is easier. It is easier to pick failing companies imo.
I'm normally quite placid but when I see ridiculous comments that have no bearing on this board would you rather I kept quiet?
I bite my tongue a lot because so much rubbish is posted on these boards. Luckily this is still one of the more informative.
I am tempted not to bother and join E121.

Bogeymen can be a comfort blanket. This company isn't under any consequential attack from that direction.

Trying to compare oil companies is something of a fool's errand. We know UKOG and BP are in different universes but people will try to conflate. To stay on track I'll compare ENQ to JOG. I haven't done the research to decide whether JOG is investible (it probably is) but there are benefits in comparing them as you could make a case that Bressay (as a company) and JOG could be compared. Gamestop even comes into it as amateur investors can be whipped into a frenzy and AIM has plenty of unscrupulous manipulators.
RKH and JOG are close. Both have large fields but no cash to develop. You might argue that JOG is doing better as the MC is similar but shareholders far fewer in JOG. For JOG to advance it will need to raise cash. There's a RI for you already. If you used similar shareholder numbers does anybody really think that JOG would be at the level of today?
We know at Gamestop there will be buyers trapped higher up ($97 today, reached $400). For a time they couldn't sell and there'll be a message board saying that its going back to $200/300 etc.. Amateurs are slow to bale out and many go down with the ship. You cannot short RKH or JOG as far as I know because of the pathetic MC (below £100mio). A few well connected traders could probably short them but they are not amateurs.
Some smaller AIM companies have excellent PR and even though flatlining still provide their Directors excellent salaries. I never invested but Sound was one of them. I did invest in XEL and made many mistakes. Both RKH and JOG are bandying the same hyperbole when XEL was touting and is actually aimed at amateur investors. The professionals have heard it all before
I wish JOG and RKH well because if they can get to the next level (2025?) it will bode well for Bressay.
Bressay as a field has what both RKH and JOG want. Finance. You might say it isn't there with ENQ but the way to eat an elephant is; slowly. Our current debt is disappearing fast.
Who would I compare ENQ to? I don't think there is another like it - not even Harbour.

Wrong board Frac. We aren't being shorted to any extent.

https://wp-jerseyoilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/02/02094652/Corporate-update-presentation-February-2021-Website.pdf
I'm never averse to cribbing off others or trusting certain sources. You might think the JOG presentation doesn't help; maybe it doesn't but it would have been prepared by industry professionals and is fresh this month. It is in print and they will set up a data room to market it which involves integrity and possible negligence suits. I would direct you especially to slides 9,10,11. I am not invested in JOG and will give my reasons later. I am not saying its a poor investment just that I am not interested at present.
You could make an argument that P.11 is directly aimed at us. I think the report helps as an aide-memoire. Even if you disagree we have a point of reference. What I think is more important is that it tries to compare the NS oil companies and that is impossible imo. What it does illustrate that an oil company about to attract suitors means it will flourish its potential in the best possible light.
They include us when if anything RKH is a better comparison. We do not titillate or show our knickers to attract attention (investors). We are an established, profitable company of scale. We are aiming at a different sector/market.
A few posters here have criticised ENQ in the past for poor PR. I think the benefit of not chasing celebrity is coming to roost. We are out of the spotlight and have concentrated on the day job.

Today is Candlemas. It is traditionally the day weather predictions are made for the rest of winter. Important I would think as you're here because this is an energy stock (do I have to do everything for you?):

If Candlemas Day be fair and bright,
Winter will have another fight.
If Candlemas Day brings cloud and rain,
Winter won't come again.

I'm a bit confused because it was cloudy and drizzly earlier but the sun keeps trying to break through. Even more importantly it is Groundhog Day in the US. Well, they're having sh*t weather so I guess no shadows and that means their winter is coming to an end. This clearly means that the price of oil will go up and down (chilting will confirm).

*I was watching Rachel Riley on Countdown earlier and I got aroused. Not bad for a seven letter word, eh!

Welcome Tom - I'm a fan of both Squif and HMH. Accounting technicalities aside I like their challenging attitudes. People calculate the EV on an accepted formula. Great - what do you get? Another estimate because the debt and cash are real and the MC is whatever the stock price is that day.
The Gamestop story shows how it's possible to manipulate prices, especially in this era of social media investing. It wasn't how its being conveyed in the wider media and there were serious professional players on the buying side (Michael Burry and Ryan Cohen were v. large investors). We're much too sophisticated on here and not the "dumb money" that Wall Street calls retail investors to fall for that kind of verbal dexterity. Or are we?
Nobody puts much of a value on potential except when they're selling it (snake oil anyone?). AB doesn't talk that way but people like David Lenigas do ("Gatwick Gusher on BBC news 2016 with 'billions' of barrels of oil).
Then there are the inbetweeners.
If you look at the presentation of JOG in Jan 2020 they had contingent resources of 142 mmboe and on P.5 they have NAV/share as £42.16. A company with an MC then of about £22m and there it is in a presentation that its a company with NAV ofC. $1.2bn. I have no axe to bear against JOG and wish them well but the dialogue is very reminiscent of Xcite Energy. You don't want to be asset rich, cash poor in oil development. At the extreme end you have lottery tickets. Coin tosses are a better bet.
I may have found the missing billions in Squifs analysis in Bressay alone. Depends how you tell it and market the story to different people. Squif and HMH are very important contributors to this board.

Just saying.

My brother-in-law had a Pfizer jab in Enfield today. He's 64. I received a text from UCLH offering me a jab. Anecdotal but these are possibly gap fillers.

The following may not make sense. Many have an obsession with formulae and charts and some I believe can push you into arriving at the wrong conclusions. However, enough people believe in them so they do have an influence. What if Squif is much closer to the EV (and I think its even higher) then the simple equation means that to make it work [wet finger 3.5bn] then the MC is wrong? I confidently suggest that our MC should be around $2bn or 85p a share.

The market is historically poor at valuing mouse traps.

I surrender. Your second sentence starts off "For simplicity" which I think should be deleted. It undermines my confidence. However, this is the kind of detail us in the cheaper seats like. Once you argue with each other a wee bit more filters through each time to those of us who don't have an accountancy background/understanding.
The recent events in the US (Gamestop) shows the absurdity of stock markets and eventually it MUST come back to fundamentals. I do occasionally look at other stocks which are massive SELLS imo yet their message boards are full of nonsense. Its O/T but Aberforth sold out their 5.78% holding in AMGO on Thursday and somebody posted that it was good news as the seller was now finished. No contradictions. I'd expect comments on this board if somebody made a bald statement like that and this board is mercifully lacking in out and out rubbish. Neither you or HMH have ever held back on calling out total tosh. I have another oil company I wouldn't touch but won't mention here as it might attract death threats (only joking but life's too short to engage with idiots).
Guessing reserves is near to impossible with the oil price wide movements and the recent CoPs but I totally agree with you (and HMH) that higher oil prices will have exponential leverage on our share price. ATM I cannot see any indication that the market is prepared for this.
We should get the update on 2cnd or 9th. At least we'll have fresh numbers to work with.

Be Lucky

Squif - "Therefore the overall EV I assume is $3.5 BN give or take" I kinda followed your track until you got into current and non-current liabilities but I thought EV was just MC + debts less cash?

Be gentle.

Hi Twalby - we cannot predict what will happen but it's fun to speculate. There is a serious side as well because the intention is for EnQuest to make us money. Several posters here have experiences that educate and we all benefit. I certainly don't know everything despite what my wife says. Glad you like the 50/50. For me it is the baseline that I hope is in the rear mirror now and can be used as a shorthand in the same way as the "60p party". Anything over and above 50/50 means we are in clover. At 50/50 we are solvent but won't attract new investors. I'm quite happy to have my musings/ideas pulled apart as it helps my final investment decisions (FID). If its good enough for the oil industry its good enough for me. We all have pointers that can raise alarm signals and I'm not afraid to voice them. For example when companies place too much emphasis on FEED and CPR potential. They ain't worth a candle without finance. I like what HMH and hitman posted and I know L7 will follow this closely too because it is his area to an extent (engineering). All I'm looking for in the update is that we are doing what was forecast. Demand and the oil price will take care of the rest. We aren't in a bad position and repetition though boring will trigger the compounding effect. Near fields and tie-backs can account for the natural declines. Bressay does have potential but requires a lot of investment. That's why it is cheap.

*On average men have sex two or three times a week except for Eskimos who are lucky if they get it twice a year. This news was very distressing to me and came as something of a surprise because I didn’t know I was an effing Eskimo

Hi L7 - thanks for that. The reason I ask is that we should not ascribe any significant value to Bressay at present. I believe it is an option. The near opportunities in existing fields satisfy my confidence in EnQuest being a profitable investment (to simplify - I am relying on my 50/50 model).
My fag packet reasoning is this: If we get 81.62 % for $30mio then(lets say) Chrysaor share is worth $6.75mio plus £2.2mio (31/7) making c. $40mio. Not peanuts but a field with a FDP has more value than a discovery. So the 115 mio barrels of 2C reserves cost 35 cents per barrel. Sounds cheap but as we are all aware the step to making it happen is never straightforward and full of risk - both on field performance and finance. Get it right and it is the equivalent of getting 3 bars on the fruit machine. Going from 2C to 2P is the challenge.
I have experience (losing money) of this situation with Xcite and I actually believe that Bressay was about to become 'stranded'. There is a comparison to JOG which has P90 reserves of 221 mio barrels which using its MC values them at 23 cents a barrel. Things were going swimmingly until this happened with their Buchan field "Equinor has elected not to exercise the Option". I know little about JOG but some of my reasoning could also be used with Sirius Minerals.
It is ALWAYS about the money and I sense that Equinor aren't in the market for these types of fields. So who is????
I much prefer hitman's analysis. Forget developing the whole field for now and treat it almost as an extension (near drilling) of Kraken. For example, lets say there is 11.5 mio reserves in a suitable location (one tenth of the field). That's a cost of $3.5 per barrel.
I reckon that'd be worth FCF of around $400mio divided by number of years to extract. That's not peanuts. Meanwhile, technology improves and oil goes higher.
I'm sure there's plenty of holes in my argument but I think hitman has nailed it. EnQuest is one of the few oil companies, perhaps the only one, that can prevent Bressay being stranded. I think Cairn would go along with that plan too.

This was my view on the article at the time which I posted ( I don't subscribe but usually get the paper on Saturday and Sunday);
"I'm a bit nonplussed by that interview in The Times. I don't know what the point of it was or if it was a kinda Op-Ed? Maybe there is less news out there than we thought and AB does seem to have a touch of cabin-fever. He mentioned he had a lot of free time on his hands which makes me wonder whose looking after the shop and the comment about £500 a month for basic utilities is pure Trumpism imo. Ignore rent, salaries and mortgages and freeze everything. I'm not sure how that would work and I certainly couldn't survive and there are millions far worse off then me. I'd rather he'd kept out of it.
Still, it could have been worse. It could have been an interview with Malcy."

Pelle - porky is short for "pork pie" which is rhyming slang for "lie". I read it as Squif accusing AB of exaggerating or spinning the facts. AB actually hasn't delivered so far so Squif is right. Oil scares, shale and Covid have had something to do with it too. AB has though kept us afloat when others would have failed and at last the future looks promising.
Squif can be blunt at times but he does bring realism to this board. I quite liked my 50/50 scenario going forward ($50 oil and 50,000 boepd). I think we'll do better but using these figures allow for the unexpected and still show decent profits.
Regarding the original post you're both right.